ATL: IRMA - Models

[Raebie]

Jeez. Dead center at the tip.

[Frank P]

Looks a tad south n west at h126 from the 18z

[Aric Dunn]

thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

No real changes from previous runs. As it digs further south, coriolis (f) goes down, zeta (cyclonic vorticity) goes up.

agreed.. still the same set up and low development... ill give it a couple more days before I jump on.. I have seen this happen many times.. just to have nothing develop..

[tolakram]

[MWatkins]

The tight agreement in the models is not surprising. Well-established hurricanes being driven WNW tend to have lower forecast errors.

I'm not shocked, at all, that the 18Z and 0Z have very little differences in track through 120 hours.

18Z had some special soundings, and it doesn't appear the environmental flight found anything helpful that the GFS didn't already have in the grids.

Arrgh!

MW

[Texas Snowman]

Islamorada is in deep trouble if that verifies....

[eastcoastFL]

Would this be the first identical back to back runs we've gotten thus far with Irma? I liked it better when they were flopping.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[wxmann_91]

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

unfortunately, these are actually plausible this time given the environment, assuming it misses the high mountains

The potential for downsloping off the Hispaniola and Cuban mountains gives me pause, especially given that Irma will be a large hurricane at that time. The only precedent for such low pressures in the area was the Labor Day hurricane 80 years ago, and it was a small hurricane. I consider sub-920mb to be a very low-probability solution at this time.

[AutoPenalti]

It's still there.

[image removed]

thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

It's more defined this run if anything.

https://i.imgur.com/BxobKnU.gif

You can see the trends are just pretty much lining themselves up this run.

[BigB0882]

agreed.. still the same set up and low development... ill give it a couple more days before I jump on.. I have seen this happen many times.. just to have nothing develop..

So what does that mean if nothing develops? How would that affect track?

[Dean4Storms]

A smidgen further west, not much.

[caneseddy]

So much for us hoping the data would cause a huge shift...nope GFS still going up the spine

Let's see what Euro says but no good news tonight for anyone

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

Would this be the first identical back to back runs we've gotten thus far with Irma? I liked it better when they were flopping.

It seems we have honed in for 5 straight runs now, so we may be on to something. Also we are no longer in fantasyland either, but this is at day 5 where the turn is happening.

Landfall near Cape Romano on this run.

[ObsessedMiami]

We asked for consistency. We asked for Data for the flights. We got them. And we still get the same, terrible result. Going to bed. Lots to do this week

[sma10]

Key Largo landfall at 891mb. I suppose it would be easier to completely dismiss this scenario if a similar location hadnt once experienced an 892mb landfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[NDG]

There would be very little left of the middle and upper Keys if this GFS was to be correct

[stormreader]

Basically still making landfall on the SW Fl coast there (GOM) to be technical.