ATL: IRMA - Models

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sponger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6541 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 pm

Ugly. Definitely West.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6542 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6543 Postby birddogsc » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Would this be the first identical back to back runs we've gotten thus far with Irma? I liked it better when they were flopping.


No... the 24 hours have all been zero'd in on some portion fo south FL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6544 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 pm

Modern global weather models didn't get as good as they are without having really good satellite data to assimilate over the oceans and sparse areas. Those extra soundings maybe made a small difference (and in some cases it could be a bigger difference), but the first guess that goes into the models is remarkably good over the oceans.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6545 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 pm

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6546 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 pm

Geese, another gut wrenching run for FL.... man I feel your pain... hard not to stay up for the Euro after that run...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6547 Postby Eastcoaster » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 pm

And its directly over Tampa at 144.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6548 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 pm

Model is getting closer and closer to riding Irma all the way up the west coast of Fl. Not far from a scenario that would put the entire west coast of Fl in the right front quadrant. Not there at this time, but getting very plausible.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6549 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6550 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yes this is 200 mb but it extends down to the mid levels and turn IRMA north.. that little piece of energy has to turn into this first..

Image

I have 2 questions -any idea how fast it's moving at this point, as it crosses Lake O? And is 933mb at that location that far inland even remotely plausible? I ask out of curiosity for what we could expect here in orlando area?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6551 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm

Alyono wrote:MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida


The UKMET was the first to catch Matthew's turn towards the coast (it did so on October 1 while the rest waited until late on October 2), so it can't be discounted.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6552 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm

NDG wrote:There would be very little left of the middle and upper Keys if this GFS was to be correct :(

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/I4sJzrY.png[/img]


Please stop the dramatics. Sorry, but while this may be a large and dangerous storm the talk of utter destruction is a little over the top. Whoever gets the right eyewall is going to be hurting for sure but these GFS super low pressures cannot be believed.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6553 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm

And just a minor shift next run could run it up the west coast of FL on the eastern gulf... won't take much of a shift to do that either
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6554 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:We asked for consistency. We asked for Data for the flights. We got them. And we still get the same, terrible result. Going to bed. Lots to do this week


Unfortunately looking like the real deal.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6555 Postby ftolmsteen » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm

Getting really ominous feels about this with all the additional data in the model now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6556 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:16 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Sustained hurricane force winds for pretty much the entire peninsula.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6557 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:16 pm

stormreader wrote:Model is getting closer and closer to riding Irma all the way up the west coast of Fl. Not far from a scenario that would put the entire west coast of Fl in the right front quadrant. Not there at this time, but getting very plausible.

Some talk lately of not having to be quite so concerned with surge on the Fl Atlantic coast. Its true. And surge is a primary death threat. If this runs parallel or right along west coast, then that's out the window. Now surge becomes paramount.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6558 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:16 pm

Alyono wrote:MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida

What model/ source is this?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6559 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:17 pm

sma10 wrote:Key Largo landfall at 891mb. I suppose it would be easier to completely dismiss this scenario if a similar location hadnt once experienced an 892mb landfall.


Too far north, it shows more like Islamorada or Long Key.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6560 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:17 pm

Will be interesting to see what the GFS ensembles show next
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