ATL: IRMA - Models

[NDG]

There would be very little left of the middle and upper Keys if this GFS was to be correct

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/I4sJzrY.png[/img]

Please stop the dramatics. Sorry, but while this may be a large and dangerous storm the talk of utter destruction is a little over the top. Whoever gets the right eyewall is going to be hurting for sure but these GFS super low pressures cannot be believed.

Is not dramatics. At this point anything is possible, just a couple of days ago many were dismissing the idea Irma being almost a Cat 5 tonight.
Next time please PM me, I am not a little kid.

[sma10]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida

What model/ source is this?

That's the UKMET.

The turn in general is believable, but i imagine the curve will soften in reality. May have to give this another run or two before buying into the right hook.

[Alyono]

Canadian has shifted into the Caribbean

[ftolmsteen]

Just looking at that gives me chills.

Certainly hope the intensity is way off there. I can't believe it's plausible to have that low of a pressure after traveling over that much land 2-300 miles!

The everglades isn't exactly a storm shredder.

Wouldn't a large system like this take much longer to wind down over land? Also factoring it's feeding off water from both sides

[La Sirena]

There would be very little left of the middle and upper Keys if this GFS was to be correct

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/I4sJzrY.png[/img]

Please stop the dramatics. Sorry, but while this may be a large and dangerous storm the talk of utter destruction is a little over the top. Whoever gets the right eyewall is going to be hurting for sure but these GFS super low pressures cannot be believed.

Having lived there I dint find that dramatic at all.

[sma10]

SFWMD spaghetti plot includes new UKMET. I guess you can consider that to be an eastern outlier now.

Uk goes from southern outlier to eastern outlier in one data point

[Alyono]

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

[stormreader]

The consistency has been remarkable. Still 5 and 1/2 days to landfall on that run. Still can't rule out a major change in course, seems unlikely though. 36 hours or so of new runs and info to give us a more definitive answer. Have to at least expect subtle changes. The trend is west.

[SouthFLTropics]

Major shift South by the CMC

[AdamFirst]

Canadian has the storm on a westerly heading for beyond a 24 hour period, in the short term.

[mcheer23]

CMC near Pensacola.

[MississippiWx]

Welp, there it is with the CMC. Lol.

Central Gulf landfall. Doubt it, but dang what a jump.

[bella_may]

CMC tracks it through Cuba before making landfall in Pensacola...

[AdamFirst]

HWRF & HMON are both rolling.

[stormreader]

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

Well that would be the kind of westward shift I really wouldn't expect. But at 5 and 1/2 days before an expected impact in S Fl, you still can't totally rule out something major. But it is the CMC. Trends are west. Could just be announcing more subtle west trends in mainline models. Have to give it a little more time. We still have a little more time, but its beginning to run short.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's a huge shift in one run by the CMC. How has the CMC been performing with this system so far? I'd have to guess that it isn't up there with the Euro. Regardless, it's one of the consensus models and that huge of an outlier would throw the TVCN off I would think.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone notice frames missing on the cmc? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=59

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[Frank P]

Well that Canadian run was just..... crazy.... go home Uncle you're drunk!

[Langinbang187]

CMC & the UKMET both take it into Cuba, with the GFS trending SW as well I'm really starting to think there's a real solid chance for a Cuban landfall here.

[SouthFloridawx]

Quite a few

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