ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
000
URNT15 KNHC 050436
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 47 20170905
042700 1613N 05547W 6975 03008 9912 +098 +098 225077 079 065 012 00
042730 1614N 05549W 6969 03004 9903 +096 +096 223080 082 068 007 00
042800 1615N 05550W 6970 02992 9895 +094 +094 226083 085 070 012 00
042830 1616N 05551W 6971 02976 9888 +089 +089 227087 090 073 019 03
042900 1618N 05552W 6975 02957 9872 +088 +088 231092 094 077 013 00
042930 1619N 05553W 6974 02949 9843 +104 +104 236090 091 081 021 00
043000 1620N 05554W 6964 02937 9818 +107 +107 234086 089 085 017 00
043030 1621N 05556W 6984 02895 9799 +106 +106 229086 089 087 028 00
043100 1622N 05557W 6969 02896 9765 +107 +107 229091 092 092 011 00
043130 1623N 05558W 6975 02867 9741 +107 +107 230093 095 093 014 00
043200 1624N 05559W 6972 02847 9727 +102 +102 230099 100 096 020 00
043230 1625N 05600W 6968 02825 9700 +101 +101 236106 109 098 033 00
043300 1626N 05601W 6974 02784 9668 +101 +101 239113 116 104 051 00
043330 1627N 05602W 6951 02777 9626 +110 +110 237120 121 109 044 03
043400 1628N 05603W 6976 02708 9563 +120 +120 239109 121 /// /// 03
043430 1629N 05604W 6977 02678 9504 +134 +133 246092 099 122 022 00
043500 1630N 05605W 6967 02659 9433 +161 +139 256069 088 116 000 03
043530 1631N 05606W 6979 02629 9413 +161 +131 256049 059 075 002 00
043600 1633N 05606W 6966 02629 9406 +157 +120 249035 045 045 002 00
043630 1634N 05607W 6974 02610 9395 +154 +134 248020 028 035 002 00
$$
;
121 kt FL, 122 kt SFMR.
URNT15 KNHC 050436
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 47 20170905
042700 1613N 05547W 6975 03008 9912 +098 +098 225077 079 065 012 00
042730 1614N 05549W 6969 03004 9903 +096 +096 223080 082 068 007 00
042800 1615N 05550W 6970 02992 9895 +094 +094 226083 085 070 012 00
042830 1616N 05551W 6971 02976 9888 +089 +089 227087 090 073 019 03
042900 1618N 05552W 6975 02957 9872 +088 +088 231092 094 077 013 00
042930 1619N 05553W 6974 02949 9843 +104 +104 236090 091 081 021 00
043000 1620N 05554W 6964 02937 9818 +107 +107 234086 089 085 017 00
043030 1621N 05556W 6984 02895 9799 +106 +106 229086 089 087 028 00
043100 1622N 05557W 6969 02896 9765 +107 +107 229091 092 092 011 00
043130 1623N 05558W 6975 02867 9741 +107 +107 230093 095 093 014 00
043200 1624N 05559W 6972 02847 9727 +102 +102 230099 100 096 020 00
043230 1625N 05600W 6968 02825 9700 +101 +101 236106 109 098 033 00
043300 1626N 05601W 6974 02784 9668 +101 +101 239113 116 104 051 00
043330 1627N 05602W 6951 02777 9626 +110 +110 237120 121 109 044 03
043400 1628N 05603W 6976 02708 9563 +120 +120 239109 121 /// /// 03
043430 1629N 05604W 6977 02678 9504 +134 +133 246092 099 122 022 00
043500 1630N 05605W 6967 02659 9433 +161 +139 256069 088 116 000 03
043530 1631N 05606W 6979 02629 9413 +161 +131 256049 059 075 002 00
043600 1633N 05606W 6966 02629 9406 +157 +120 249035 045 045 002 00
043630 1634N 05607W 6974 02610 9395 +154 +134 248020 028 035 002 00
$$
;
121 kt FL, 122 kt SFMR.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
122 kt SFMR in the SE quad (aka the weak quadrant...)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Given the intensity and current models showing a spine of Florida path, would you feel comfortable staying in Orlando, in a three story apartment on the bottom floor that is surrounded by large trees? Wind would be the big issue here right?
I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.
I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
umm SW quad 120 kt in the SE quad.. whats the north quad going to be now.. geezz.
043300 1626N 05601W 6974 02784 9668 +101 +101 239113 116 104 051 00
043330 1627N 05602W 6951 02777 9626 +110 +110 237120 121 109 044 03
043400 1628N 05603W 6976 02708 9563 +120 +120 239109 121 /// /// 03
043430 1629N 05604W 6977 02678 9504 +134 +133 246092 099 122 022 00
043300 1626N 05601W 6974 02784 9668 +101 +101 239113 116 104 051 00
043330 1627N 05602W 6951 02777 9626 +110 +110 237120 121 109 044 03
043400 1628N 05603W 6976 02708 9563 +120 +120 239109 121 /// /// 03
043430 1629N 05604W 6977 02678 9504 +134 +133 246092 099 122 022 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Not even to the eye and reporting 939.5mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
hope they stay around for one more pass. or a new plane takes off soon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
brghteys1216 wrote:Given the intensity and current models showing a spine of Florida path, would you feel comfortable staying in Orlando, in a three story apartment on the bottom floor that is surrounded by large trees? Wind would be the big issue here right?
I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.
Its a personal decision but I would stay unless on coast and getting surge or peak eyewall. This will lose some steam and I would be shocked if you had anything above Cat2. Evac has risk as well so do not let panic get the better of you.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
What's the initial US landfall timeline?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
This is bombing out look at how much colder the cloud tops have cooled ... pressure is probably dropping rapidly .
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
GOES-16 eye temps are just beginning to clip over the WMG threshold on occasion.
*EDIT: GOES-13 also has a WMG pixel in the eye at 0415Z.
*EDIT: GOES-13 also has a WMG pixel in the eye at 0415Z.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
000
URNT15 KNHC 050446
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 48 20170905
043700 1636N 05608W 6972 02606 //// +148 //// 242011 017 031 001 01
043730 1638N 05608W 6970 02603 9388 +144 +142 235004 008 031 003 01
043800 1639N 05609W 6971 02597 9386 +144 +138 105004 007 029 001 00
043830 1641N 05610W 6970 02597 9382 +146 +142 066012 014 025 001 05
043900 1641N 05610W 6970 02597 9376 +154 +134 058023 027 027 002 00
043930 1644N 05613W 6970 02604 9381 +158 +132 057037 040 037 002 00
044000 1645N 05614W 6971 02612 9388 +161 +129 054046 049 045 002 00
044030 1646N 05616W 6973 02620 9406 +153 +133 054054 057 057 002 00
044100 1647N 05617W 6971 02637 9433 +141 +132 048066 070 076 005 00
044130 1649N 05618W 6967 02661 9459 +140 +124 048080 090 098 013 00
044200 1650N 05619W 6962 02699 9529 +128 +128 054120 129 105 023 00
044230 1651N 05621W 6970 02721 9579 +115 +115 053131 133 111 020 00
044300 1652N 05622W 6963 02764 9613 +107 //// 055129 132 113 020 01
044330 1653N 05623W 6976 02785 9638 +108 +107 055127 129 104 002 01
044400 1654N 05624W 6971 02823 9666 +112 +096 057124 126 104 000 00
044430 1655N 05626W 6970 02857 9704 +108 +105 057117 123 100 006 00
044500 1657N 05627W 6968 02885 9735 +107 +103 056113 116 099 007 00
044530 1658N 05628W 6965 02910 9753 +116 +116 060108 111 095 008 00
044600 1659N 05629W 6963 02930 9794 +116 +116 065112 116 095 013 00
044630 1700N 05631W 6969 02944 9829 +111 +111 062115 116 090 014 00
$$
;
133 kt FL, 113 kt SFMR. Pressure 938mb.
URNT15 KNHC 050446
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 48 20170905
043700 1636N 05608W 6972 02606 //// +148 //// 242011 017 031 001 01
043730 1638N 05608W 6970 02603 9388 +144 +142 235004 008 031 003 01
043800 1639N 05609W 6971 02597 9386 +144 +138 105004 007 029 001 00
043830 1641N 05610W 6970 02597 9382 +146 +142 066012 014 025 001 05
043900 1641N 05610W 6970 02597 9376 +154 +134 058023 027 027 002 00
043930 1644N 05613W 6970 02604 9381 +158 +132 057037 040 037 002 00
044000 1645N 05614W 6971 02612 9388 +161 +129 054046 049 045 002 00
044030 1646N 05616W 6973 02620 9406 +153 +133 054054 057 057 002 00
044100 1647N 05617W 6971 02637 9433 +141 +132 048066 070 076 005 00
044130 1649N 05618W 6967 02661 9459 +140 +124 048080 090 098 013 00
044200 1650N 05619W 6962 02699 9529 +128 +128 054120 129 105 023 00
044230 1651N 05621W 6970 02721 9579 +115 +115 053131 133 111 020 00
044300 1652N 05622W 6963 02764 9613 +107 //// 055129 132 113 020 01
044330 1653N 05623W 6976 02785 9638 +108 +107 055127 129 104 002 01
044400 1654N 05624W 6971 02823 9666 +112 +096 057124 126 104 000 00
044430 1655N 05626W 6970 02857 9704 +108 +105 057117 123 100 006 00
044500 1657N 05627W 6968 02885 9735 +107 +103 056113 116 099 007 00
044530 1658N 05628W 6965 02910 9753 +116 +116 060108 111 095 008 00
044600 1659N 05629W 6963 02930 9794 +116 +116 065112 116 095 013 00
044630 1700N 05631W 6969 02944 9829 +111 +111 062115 116 090 014 00
$$
;
133 kt FL, 113 kt SFMR. Pressure 938mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Yeah, Irma is putting on a show right now. Bombing out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:122 kt SFMR in the SE quad (aka the weak quadrant...)
Do you have any opinion on what you think the wind field may look like when it nears Florida? These model runs make it look like the whole state will be feeling hurricane force winds at some point and I'm still trying to make decision on where to go.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
looks like about a 6 mb pressure drop in the last hour between fixes... Down to about 937.6mb
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
135kt flight level winds in the NW quad.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:GOES-16 eye temps are just beginning to clip over the WMG threshold on occasion.
Can you elaborate? What is the WMG threshold and what does it mean?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:RL3AO wrote:122 kt SFMR in the SE quad (aka the weak quadrant...)
Do you have any opinion on what you think the wind field may look like when it nears Florida? These model runs make it look like the whole state will be feeling hurricane force winds at some point and I'm still trying to make decision on where to go.
No reason for it not to be an above average size hurricane.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
I really do believe that she will get sub 900 and will get winds over 170
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
000
UZNT13 KNHC 050454
XXAA 55057 99166 70561 04266 99940 27413 17014 00/// ///// /////
92147 26407 17512 85894 23006 20007 70574 14807 21502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80437
61616 AF305 0611A IRMA OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 17511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 20006 940697 WL150 1
7013 081 REL 1664N05615W 043743 SPG 1664N05614W 044126 =
XXBB 55058 99166 70561 04266 00940 27413 11850 23006 22744 18220
33697 14406
21212 00940 17014 11850 20007 22697 19002
31313 09608 80437
61616 AF305 0611A IRMA OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 17511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 20006 940697 WL150 1
7013 081 REL 1664N05615W 043743 SPG 1664N05614W 044126 =
;
Dropsonde: 940/14. Actual pressure 939mb.
UZNT13 KNHC 050454
XXAA 55057 99166 70561 04266 99940 27413 17014 00/// ///// /////
92147 26407 17512 85894 23006 20007 70574 14807 21502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80437
61616 AF305 0611A IRMA OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 17511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 20006 940697 WL150 1
7013 081 REL 1664N05615W 043743 SPG 1664N05614W 044126 =
XXBB 55058 99166 70561 04266 00940 27413 11850 23006 22744 18220
33697 14406
21212 00940 17014 11850 20007 22697 19002
31313 09608 80437
61616 AF305 0611A IRMA OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 17511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 20006 940697 WL150 1
7013 081 REL 1664N05615W 043743 SPG 1664N05614W 044126 =
;
Dropsonde: 940/14. Actual pressure 939mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
000
URNT15 KNHC 050456
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 49 20170905
044700 1702N 05632W 6977 02957 9851 +106 +106 056110 116 087 014 00
044730 1703N 05633W 6968 02980 9874 +102 +102 058109 112 083 019 00
044800 1704N 05635W 6973 02990 9888 +099 +099 060109 110 079 009 00
044830 1705N 05636W 6975 03000 9900 +099 +099 058104 107 076 008 00
044900 1707N 05637W 6967 03022 9916 +099 +099 055094 103 073 010 00
044930 1708N 05639W 6963 03037 9925 +101 +101 054093 096 071 009 00
045000 1709N 05640W 6973 03032 9927 +097 +097 052083 091 066 009 00
045030 1710N 05641W 6972 03045 9938 +096 +096 050082 083 063 008 00
045100 1711N 05643W 6975 03048 9947 +090 +088 047078 081 062 008 00
045130 1713N 05644W 6971 03059 9948 +093 +078 050084 086 060 009 00
045200 1714N 05645W 6967 03066 9954 +092 +078 052082 084 059 007 00
045230 1715N 05646W 6970 03067 9960 +092 +082 056083 084 056 006 00
045300 1716N 05648W 6976 03067 9955 +104 +067 052084 085 051 004 00
045330 1718N 05649W 6970 03078 9964 +098 +069 053083 084 052 005 00
045400 1719N 05650W 6970 03082 9967 +099 +066 056082 083 052 005 00
045430 1720N 05652W 6970 03086 9968 +103 +062 056082 082 049 003 00
045500 1721N 05653W 6970 03088 9972 +102 +059 058082 083 049 003 00
045530 1723N 05654W 6973 03087 9969 +108 +054 058082 083 049 003 00
045600 1724N 05656W 6967 03095 9975 +105 +054 059082 083 047 001 00
045630 1725N 05657W 6973 03092 9984 +100 +058 061081 082 047 000 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 050456
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 49 20170905
044700 1702N 05632W 6977 02957 9851 +106 +106 056110 116 087 014 00
044730 1703N 05633W 6968 02980 9874 +102 +102 058109 112 083 019 00
044800 1704N 05635W 6973 02990 9888 +099 +099 060109 110 079 009 00
044830 1705N 05636W 6975 03000 9900 +099 +099 058104 107 076 008 00
044900 1707N 05637W 6967 03022 9916 +099 +099 055094 103 073 010 00
044930 1708N 05639W 6963 03037 9925 +101 +101 054093 096 071 009 00
045000 1709N 05640W 6973 03032 9927 +097 +097 052083 091 066 009 00
045030 1710N 05641W 6972 03045 9938 +096 +096 050082 083 063 008 00
045100 1711N 05643W 6975 03048 9947 +090 +088 047078 081 062 008 00
045130 1713N 05644W 6971 03059 9948 +093 +078 050084 086 060 009 00
045200 1714N 05645W 6967 03066 9954 +092 +078 052082 084 059 007 00
045230 1715N 05646W 6970 03067 9960 +092 +082 056083 084 056 006 00
045300 1716N 05648W 6976 03067 9955 +104 +067 052084 085 051 004 00
045330 1718N 05649W 6970 03078 9964 +098 +069 053083 084 052 005 00
045400 1719N 05650W 6970 03082 9967 +099 +066 056082 083 052 005 00
045430 1720N 05652W 6970 03086 9968 +103 +062 056082 082 049 003 00
045500 1721N 05653W 6970 03088 9972 +102 +059 058082 083 049 003 00
045530 1723N 05654W 6973 03087 9969 +108 +054 058082 083 049 003 00
045600 1724N 05656W 6967 03095 9975 +105 +054 059082 083 047 001 00
045630 1725N 05657W 6973 03092 9984 +100 +058 061081 082 047 000 00
$$
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