ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

GOES-16 eye temps are just beginning to clip over the WMG threshold on occasion.

Can you elaborate? What is the WMG threshold and what does it mean?

Warm medium grey, or WMG, is the warmest color shade on the Basic Dvorak (BD) enhanced infrared color curve. Temperatures of 9ºC and warmer are WMG. The other colors, in decreasing temperature, are off-white (OW), dark grey (DG), medium grey (MG), light grey (LG), black (B), white (W), cold medium grey (CMG), and cold dark grey (CDG). The following BD image of Irma actually has every single color shade on the scale, ranging from a single pixel of WMG in the eye to a splotch of CDG in the southern portion of the CDO.

[Hurricaneman]

I really do believe that she will get sub 900 and will get winds over 170

Anything is possible but storms have bombed in that region and that most definitely needs to be watched

[Aric Dunn]

We are quite likely about to have our second cat 5 in as many years by 5 am if this keeps up by the time the next plane gets there.

[tropicwatch]

We are quite likely about to have our second cat 5 in as many years by 5 am if this keeps up by the time the next plane gets there.

Next plane is scheduled to take off around 3am central time or 0800Z.

[galaxy401]

Looks like the pressure is now starting to tank. I wonder if I will wake up tomorrow morning seeing this as a category 5 or not. Going to be a wild ride here.

[otowntiger]

Given the intensity and current models showing a spine of Florida path, would you feel comfortable staying in Orlando, in a three story apartment on the bottom floor that is surrounded by large trees? Wind would be the big issue here right?

I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.

Its a personal decision but I would stay unless on coast and getting surge or peak eyewall. This will lose some steam and I would be shocked if you had anything above Cat2. Evac has risk as well so do not let panic get the better of you.

according to the GFS run, which appears to be way over doing the intensity, but if it verified, and that of course is a big if we in orlando would be just a few Miles east of the center (dirty side) of a 941mb hurricane. Again if that verified we could be getting strong cat three gusts. But regardless I think you'd be fine staying away from windows- but the aftermath would be worse- no power for days, difficulty getting out and about, just a few crowded gas stations open, etc. very limited food options, etc.

[Aric Dunn]

We are quite likely about to have our second cat 5 in as many years by 5 am if this keeps up by the time the next plane gets there.

Next plane is scheduled to take off around 3am central time or 0800Z.

thats no good.. a lot of good intensity data to be missed..

though should reach it when its starting to really peak..

[1900hurricane]

06Z intensity looks good for 125 kt/939 mb based on recon data.

[Aric Dunn]

also its still moving slightly south of west..

[RL3AO]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

[Evenstar]

What a beauty tonight, but so destructive underneath it.

She is exquisitely calamitous.

[Raebie]

Given the intensity and current models showing a spine of Florida path, would you feel comfortable staying in Orlando, in a three story apartment on the bottom floor that is surrounded by large trees? Wind would be the big issue here right?

I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.

Do you have relatives or friends you could hang with for a couple of days until you know what you'll be dealing with after this is over? Personally I wouldn't want to be alone.

[brghteys1216]

Given the intensity and current models showing a spine of Florida path, would you feel comfortable staying in Orlando, in a three story apartment on the bottom floor that is surrounded by large trees? Wind would be the big issue here right?

I've never experienced a hurricane and at this point I'm starting to feel scared. My spouse is an electrician at Disney and will be on the Hurricane Ride Out Crew so I will be alone as well. Not really sure what to do.

Its a personal decision but I would stay unless on coast and getting surge or peak eyewall. This will lose some steam and I would be shocked if you had anything above Cat2. Evac has risk as well so do not let panic get the better of you.

according to the GFS run, which appears to be way over doing the intensity, but if it verified, and that of course is a big if we in orlando would be just a few Miles east of the center (dirty side) of a 941mb hurricane. Again if that verified we could be getting strong cat three gusts. But regardless I think you'd be fine staying away from windows- but the aftermath would be worse- no power for days, difficulty getting out and about, just a few crowded gas stations open, etc. very limited food options, etc.

I'm going to find a friend to stay with so I'm not alone since spouse is going to be staying in Disney's Animal Kingdom for 72 hours should they activate the ride out crews.

[Aric Dunn]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

yeah, with that convection developing could be a lot lower..

[CrazyC83]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

I will predict 920mb and category 5.

[RL3AO]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

I will predict 920mb and category 5.

18 mb in 4 hours?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 050501
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/04:37:40Z
B. 16 deg 38 min N
056 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2567 m
D. 122 kt
E. 153 deg 9 nm
F. 236 deg 121 kt
G. 149 deg 12 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 10 C / 3040 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0611A IRMA OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 133 KT 317 / 17 NM 04:42:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 14 KT
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 156 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050506
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 50 20170905
045700 1726N 05658W 6970 03100 9988 +100 +052 061081 081 045 001 00
045730 1728N 05700W 6973 03100 9986 +105 +046 061078 080 045 002 00
045800 1729N 05701W 6969 03106 9988 +106 +046 060077 078 045 001 00
045830 1730N 05703W 6974 03104 9989 +108 +047 061076 077 045 002 00
045900 1732N 05704W 6967 03115 9992 +107 +048 061071 076 044 001 00
045930 1733N 05705W 6970 03116 0002 +103 +050 062067 068 042 001 00
050000 1734N 05707W 6970 03117 0009 +099 +051 064068 069 040 001 00
050030 1736N 05708W 6971 03117 0013 +098 +049 063067 068 042 000 00
050100 1737N 05710W 6967 03123 0007 +104 +046 063071 072 042 000 00
050130 1738N 05711W 6974 03117 0009 +104 +045 066072 073 042 001 00
050200 1740N 05712W 6966 03129 0014 +102 +047 066070 071 041 001 00
050230 1741N 05714W 6979 03117 0014 +104 +048 065068 070 040 001 00
050300 1742N 05715W 6966 03133 0015 +105 +047 062065 067 040 001 00
050330 1743N 05717W 6972 03129 0017 +106 +055 062064 065 040 001 03
050400 1745N 05718W 6969 03137 0021 +106 +050 060063 064 039 001 00
050430 1746N 05720W 6971 03136 0031 +099 +052 060062 063 039 001 00
050500 1747N 05721W 6971 03137 0038 +095 +057 061062 063 038 001 00
050530 1749N 05722W 6970 03139 0031 +102 +050 061060 061 038 001 00
050600 1750N 05724W 6971 03138 0029 +105 +050 064062 062 039 001 00
050630 1751N 05725W 6972 03139 0035 +100 +052 065063 063 038 000 00
$$
;

[Chris90]

I too think this is about to hit cat 5 within the next few hours.

Based off current trends and the models, it's looking like Harvey and Irma are an old married couple. Back to back retirements. I really hope not though.

Thoughts and prayers for all those in the path. I hope everyone is prepared and have their plan in place. Irma is looking determined.

[FireRat]

920 mb Cat 5 seems likely by daytime Sept 5, more like 12 hrs from now IMO. Islands beware, a monster is on its way!