ATL: IRMA - Models

[Langinbang187]

Not much change between the 18z and 00z GFS ensembles (some of the easterly outliers have shifted west):

Man, plenty in Eastern Gulf...

[southwest southerner]

Evening everyone,

Have not been on all day, just got back form prep at the house in Key Largo. The last thing I wanted to see was a direct hit on my house damn. Tomorrow will start prep's on the Miami house. On a side note on the local radio down there, a recorded clip form a weather guy stated Irma should not be any issue for the keys.

That weather guy is playing with fire...

[bella_may]

Evening everyone,

Have not been on all day, just got back form prep at the house in Key Largo. The last thing I wanted to see was a direct hit on my house damn. Tomorrow will start prep's on the Miami house. On a side note on the local radio down there, a recorded clip form a weather guy stated Irma should not be any issue for the keys.

Are you sure you didn't mishear that? Can't imagine a professional met saying that especially if he has looked at any models.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

For sure did not misunderstand it, it's a recording so it played several times could not believe it, and I grew up in the Keys.

[CrazyC83]

The GFS ensemble mean has shifted east about 20 miles, but that could just be because the gradient has tightened. Not too many go east of Florida, or west by more than 70-100 miles.

[bhj867]

Evening everyone,

Have not been on all day, just got back form prep at the house in Key Largo. The last thing I wanted to see was a direct hit on my house damn. Tomorrow will start prep's on the Miami house. On a side note on the local radio down there, a recorded clip form a weather guy stated Irma should not be any issue for the keys.

That weather guy is playing with fire...

He may regret that soon enough. Ask KFOR-TV meteorologist Mike Morgan from Oklahoma City during the El Reno tornado about bad advice, I hope he likes his job. . . . . really who tells people to evacuate an entire city of 1.3 million with a EF5 tornado ON THE GROUND.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Crazy someone had just posted the ensembles showing some had shifted a bit to the west

[Aric Dunn]

hmm hwrf jumped wnw..

[canefan]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,

If I am not mistaken was that not the model that was slightly east of S.FLA.

[Langinbang187]

Aric,

If I am not mistaken was that not the model that was slightly east of S.FLA.

It was.

[AdamFirst]

Definite NE shift by the HWRF...beelining toward Andros Island at 96hr

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF just taking nearly every bahama island.. as cat 4/5..

[Miami Storm Tracker]

k ,
Now I am a bit confused, did it shift west or east???

[Bamagirl2408]

k ,
Now I am a bit confused, did it shift west or east???

Thats been my confusion all day! Im lost as he**

[bella_may]

HWRF just taking nearly every bahama island.. as cat 4/5..

The HWRF is about as reliable as the cmc lol

[CourierPR]

HWRF just taking nearly every bahama island.. as cat 4/5..

Can you post a graphic?

[Alyono]

Not sure I believe this significant northward HWRF shift. It does not even have hurricane force winds affecting the Leewards or the BVI. That is absurd. Storm would have to turn very quickly for that scenario to verify

[miami33]

I was referred to another website for hurricane updates. They are predicting that Irma will be over Central Florida on 9/11. Is this website reliable at all? https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.5;-80.3;5&l=temperature&t=20170911/06

[AdamFirst]

00z EURO initialized

Let the power hour commence