ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6701 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

Cuba landfall, hour 120.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6702 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6703 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

well now.. looks like a run of the euro 4 days ago..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6704 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Any indication of the north turn?

Yesterday's turn was just after 144hr...so likely not until 120 hrs tonight
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6705 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

First landfall on Cuba
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6706 Postby StrongWind » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

AdamFirst wrote:00z EURO initialized

Let the power hour commence


Maybe we can all chip in and buy them a new super computer so they can get their runs done earlier.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6707 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:22 am

AdamFirst wrote:Image


And her son Jose right behind her.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6708 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 am

I can see yet another shift to the west by the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6709 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 am

Could help keep it weaker into Florida this run. That is a plus for them.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6710 Postby boca » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 am

Doesn't look like it will turn north.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6711 Postby joey » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 am

gulf bound like cmc 8-)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6712 Postby Langinbang187 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 am

Euro tracks it directly over Cuba for for over 24 hours. That would most definitely cause some significant weakening. Cuba may end up biting the bullet for Florida if this verifies.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6713 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:24 am

boca wrote:Doesn't look like it will turn north.

I think Ally is open for turn N of deep vertical hurricane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6714 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:25 am

Langinbang187 wrote:Euro tracks it directly over Cuba for for over 24 hours. That would most definitely cause some significant weakening. Cuba may end up biting the bullet for Florida if this verifies.

Don't think so, hasn't traversed through the shredder...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6715 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:26 am

Looks like landfall right near Havana @ hr120
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6716 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:27 am

But it is a graze landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6717 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:27 am

Looks like it'll turn north to me. There's an opening.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6718 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:27 am

Langinbang187 wrote:Euro tracks it directly over Cuba for for over 24 hours. That would most definitely cause some significant weakening. Cuba may end up biting the bullet for Florida if this verifies.


I will actually agree with this trajectory even if she goes into Cuba with winds round 180 MPH and she goes over Cuba like that and goes all the way to the Caribbean she will have her winds drop down to like 130 or maybe even 110. It just depends on if she goes back into the Caribbean or stays over Cuba and then goes into the GoM she might drop down to a TS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6719 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 am

look very similar to the UKMET.. land interaction slows it down a good deal then sharp turn north..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6720 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 am

Ridging is very string. No turn yet north.
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