ATL: IRMA - Models

[M3gaMatch]

Up the spine.

Looks like she is trying to split in two there.

One on the left is an upper low. Or do you mean because Irma itself looks so broad?

[tailgater]

Taking a quick look at the 51 Euro ensembles, about 3/4 of the members are east of the Master and control runs. Some even OTS but most like the 12Z run. A few to west in the eastern Gom and a couple in the central Gom

[lando]

Taking a quick look at the 51 Euro ensembles, about 3/4 of the members are east of the Master and control runs. Some even OTS but most like the 12Z run. A few to west in the eastern Gom and a couple in the central Gom

can you post them pls

[tailgater]

Waaaay too many for my lazy butt.
but you can check them yourself here.
https://weather.us/

[LarryWx]

Significant westward shift of 0Z EPS mean/members vs 12Z EPS with even more now in E GOM and some even in the central GOM. The mean has shifted 150 miles west from the middle of the FL peninsula to 100 miles west of it.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning Larry. Looking grim for us down here based on these latest runs these past couple of days. Lots of restless days ahead.

[tailgater]

high res image hosting

[LarryWx]

Good morning Larry. Looking grim for us down here based on these latest runs these past couple of days. Lots of restless days ahead.

Good morning Jax. Yes, indeed. We need to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. I'm not giving up on getting out of this relatively unscathed with still nearly a week to go.

[jlauderdal]

South FL is now in the cone. The "GFS hits us in 12 days so we'll be okay" doesn't really seem to apply here. I hope people don't wait until Wednesday to start preparing.

Everyone in sofla needs to.prepare, this system.is different, it will have a large windfield and intense, prepare for a major hit and hope we get off easy...i know we like to be in the crosshairs this far out but even 150 miles to the north and east will.have substantial weather..the modeling is more troubling than ever with it off the north cuban coast coming through the straits

Yeah. Hey JL. I've known you since what, 96 or 97? You are so right. Harvey RI'd and got to 4, but it was a smallish system that hit a lesser populated area as Cat 4. There was immense coastal destruction from that for sure. But it is going down as Top 1 or Top 2 all time with Katrina because of rainfall. Irma on the other hand seems to have potential to structurally wreck more structures with wind and power. It's kind of insane to sit here talking about a deep Category 4 or 5 hitting SFL late this weekend. Granted we don't know for sure 6-7 days out that this absolutely hits Florida. And we certainly don't know where it hits if it does. But this is as bad of anything that we have anticipated in a decade. I have a house in Florida too, so my heart and love goes out to all of you all. I always thought we'd know what was going to be up by tomorrow, but most of the solutions are pretty close earlier. I'm kind of scared to run the new NAM's that are out. And GFS is 80 minutes out. I hope something breaks, but from here in New Orleans, I rate the potential of Irma as like a 9 on the 10 scale.

steve been a long time for sure, moels taking in more data the last 24h and still many scenarios, gulf is more in play than ever at this point

[Sciencerocks]

Wouldn't surprise me if it ended up hitting New orleans as a cat5.

Sure that's throwing darts at the dart board, but within my opinion it is more likely then North Carolina based on 95% of the model data and the general trend. Consider the reality that the models have deeply underestimated the ridging north of this cyclone and overestimated the strength of the trough. I don't think she'll get to Texas, but I doubt she'll turn northward west of 81.

I wouldn't bet the house on it but that is what I see.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Actually, 0Z Euro is a little better for SE Florida as the eye wall passes by to the west. Enter for Florida has a whole since land interaction with Cuba doesn't have Irma as strong as it was.

Still 5-6 days out. Could be on either coast, or a little further into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[Vdogg]

high res image hosting

With that many Ensemble members to the east of Florida, odds are that we're going to have an operational run today that is also to the east of Florida and again hits the Carolinas. Quite a large number of the ensembles hit the Carolinas. Folks need to still stay on guard, Florida is still in the crosshairs, but Carolina is very much still on deck.

[djones65]

Even though a northern Gulf coast threat appears less likely than up th peninsula of Florida at this moment I hope no one discounts this possibility.
If the upper level shortwave cuts off further west than currently forecast will allow Irma to move much farther west and landfall in north central Gulf coast cannot be ruled out.
It is still six plus days away from landfall in Florida or perhaps the Gulf coast of panhandle or even Alabama. So please stay vigilant!

[djones65]

This is graphically demonstrated by the ECMWF Ensembles at 05/00Z posted above.
Note the significant number of tracks into the Florida panhandle.

[jlauderdal]

Even though a northern Gulf coast threat appears less likely than up th peninsula of Florida at this moment I hope no one discounts this possibility.
If the upper level shortwave cuts off further west than currently forecast will allow Irma to move much farther west and landfall in north central Gulf coast cannot be ruled out.
It is still six plus days away from landfall in Florida or perhaps the Gulf coast of panhandle or even Alabama. So please stay vigilant!

the trend is definitely west and has continued like that for days, new orleans east seems in play

[TheStormExpert]

Overnight trends may spare the east coast of Florida metro areas.

[vortex100]

A long wave upper level trough currently moving into the eastern U.S. is expected to lift out Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, a new upper level trough will move into the lower Mississippi valley and advance very slowly eastward. This second trough is expected to steer the storm northward somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, possibly from the Florida Keys right along the west coast of Florida. However, if upper level ridging to the north and east of the storm is strong enough it could be a little further west. The northward motion, once started, will be a relatively rapid, with the storm expected to maintain some of it strength even as it moves quickly into portions of southern and central Georgia on Monday. It is not out of the question that tropical storm force winds could be experienced as far north as Atlanta, Georgia by late Monday.

[northjaxpro]

That sums up the situation nicely.

[brghteys1216]

06Z GFS is running.

[brghteys1216]

Pretty consistent with 00Z thus far through 48 hours, except for 3MB stronger.