ATL: IRMA - Models

[brghteys1216]

More north and stronger at 60 hours than 00Z.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... @18 miles NE of 00z at 60 hrs...

[jlauderdal]

Pretty consistent with 00Z thus far through 48 hours, except for 3MB stronger.

keeps north of hispanola, will be tough to knock down much intensity from this beast even with some inflow duisruption

[brghteys1216]

Beginning to wonder if 00Z was the end of the W trend. So far this run has been more north and east.

[hiflyer]

With the recent expanded observations being made CONUS feeding far more and better data into the models regarding ridge and trough along with more G4 upper level flights around Irma we may see a decrease in the windshield wiper models that we have been having the past few mornings in regards to Florida and Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

Beginning to wonder if 00Z was the end of the W trend. So far this run has been more north and east.

maybe but way to early to say that because its a bit NE, thanks for posting the gfs panels

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... @18 miles NE of 00z at 72 hrs... About same spot as 18z yesterday

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 06Z is pretty much in the same spot as the 18z. GFS pretty consistent about the next ~48 hours. Puerto Rico may just get a glance.

[brghteys1216]

78 hours.

[jlauderdal]

With the recent expanded observations being made CONUS feeding far more and better data into the models regarding ridge and trough along with more G4 upper level flights around Irma we may see a decrease in the windshield wiper models that we have been having the past few mornings in regards to Florida and Cuba.

i dont think there has been much windshield wiper effect, gfs and euro have been consistent with the move wnw through the straits..if you go out in time there is always going ot be differences and the error grows

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... @18 miles NE of 00z at 90 hrs or about same spot as 18z yesterday... @50 miles N of 00z Euro @90 hrs...

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS... @18 miles NE of 00z at 90 hrs or about same spot as 18z yesterday... @50 miles N of 00z Euro @90 hrs...

oh oh, is a sofla direct hit on the table this run

[brghteys1216]

96 hours. slightly NE and a bit stronger than 00z.

[brghteys1216]

108. Unless it goes further west, it's not going to landfall on Cuba before the N. turn this run.

[brghteys1216]

114. North turn started, stays off Cuba.

[lando]

Gfs much further north than euro with no interaction with Cuba

[cjrciadt]

another sub 890mb landfall?

[brghteys1216]

another sub 890mb lanfall?

Looking like it.

[Blown Away]

@24 miles NE of 00z...

[Big Easy Breeze]

Up the spine.

Looks like she is trying to split in two there.

One on the left is an upper low. Or do you mean because Irma itself looks so broad?

Could be the low coming in from the BOC at the same time as Irma making landfall at the same time. Could we see where one system influences the other in the GOM? Could be a very rare occurence, I don't know.