ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

I was not expecting the current tracks put out the models. Getting a little nervous here in the Tampa Bay area... If it goes into the Gulf, turns north and rides us up the coast this could really turn into disaster assuming it stays to the WEST of us. If it goes up the spine or further east, think we'll be OK. The N/NE Quad is the most intense right? Kinda like Charley, maybe worse since Irma is forecast to be much bigger (not necessarily stronger.) Really curious on what WXMAN57's thoughts are on this system today.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051004
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 13 20170905
095430 1659N 05800W 7018 03004 9922 +117 +090 034079 081 061 005 00
095500 1700N 05802W 7020 03005 9926 +119 +082 037076 077 053 006 00
095530 1701N 05804W 7021 03008 9926 +124 +075 038077 077 048 006 00
095600 1702N 05806W 7031 02998 9926 +127 +077 040079 081 048 005 00
095630 1704N 05808W 7025 03011 9944 +113 +085 047084 085 047 004 00
095700 1705N 05810W 7024 03015 9959 +102 +092 047085 086 047 004 00
095730 1706N 05812W 7032 03009 9977 +097 +093 046082 084 047 008 00
095800 1707N 05814W 7089 02958 9982 +102 +098 047078 079 045 003 00
095830 1708N 05816W 7056 03001 9970 +116 +088 049074 076 042 004 00
095900 1709N 05818W 7051 03008 9975 +117 +083 047070 071 040 003 00
095930 1710N 05820W 7043 03021 9980 +114 +078 050070 070 042 002 00
100000 1711N 05822W 7060 03004 9985 +114 +083 052070 071 043 002 00
100030 1712N 05824W 7073 02992 9990 +113 +083 053067 068 044 001 00
100100 1713N 05826W 7061 03009 9996 +113 +077 054066 066 040 001 00
100130 1715N 05828W 7063 03005 9995 +115 +074 054066 066 039 001 00
100200 1716N 05830W 7062 03012 9997 +119 +071 053063 063 037 002 00
100230 1717N 05832W 7063 03015 0004 +115 +070 055061 063 032 002 00
100300 1718N 05834W 7075 03006 0011 +114 +067 057062 063 030 002 00
100330 1719N 05836W 7075 03011 0021 +111 +072 055060 062 034 002 00
100400 1720N 05838W 7075 03013 0020 +112 +083 052057 058 032 002 00

[bob rulz]

Thoughts are with those in the Leeward Islands as I get ready to go to bed. I couldn't even imagine what it's like to have a storm like this bearing down on you with nowhere to go.

[Siker]

Dropsonde got 929mb with 11kt wind.

[WAcyclone]

Northern eyewall is now fully closed:

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051008
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 07 20170905
095930 1715N 06232W 4100 07412 0405 -141 -479 033013 014 /// /// 03
100000 1715N 06229W 4099 07416 0405 -145 -479 032013 013 /// /// 03
100030 1714N 06227W 4098 07418 0405 -145 -471 030012 012 /// /// 03
100100 1714N 06224W 4098 07416 0405 -144 -467 027013 013 /// /// 03
100130 1714N 06222W 4099 07414 0404 -141 -469 026013 013 /// /// 03
100200 1713N 06219W 4099 07413 0404 -141 -473 023013 013 /// /// 03
100230 1713N 06217W 4098 07416 0404 -143 -468 023013 013 /// /// 03
100300 1712N 06214W 4100 07412 0404 -140 -458 021012 013 /// /// 03
100330 1712N 06211W 4099 07414 0404 -140 -461 017012 012 /// /// 03
100400 1711N 06209W 4098 07416 0404 -140 -472 017013 013 /// /// 03
100430 1711N 06206W 4101 07411 0402 -140 -458 016014 014 /// /// 03
100500 1710N 06204W 4101 07394 0388 -140 -420 018014 014 /// /// 03
100530 1710N 06201W 4098 07408 0397 -138 -420 019014 015 /// /// 03
100600 1709N 06159W 4099 07410 0400 -140 -435 017014 014 /// /// 03
100630 1709N 06156W 4101 07410 0401 -144 -411 020014 015 /// /// 03
100700 1709N 06154W 4099 07412 0402 -145 -409 022014 014 /// /// 03
100730 1708N 06151W 4099 07413 0403 -144 -432 022013 014 /// /// 03
100800 1708N 06149W 4101 07410 0403 -141 -451 017013 014 /// /// 03
100830 1706N 06146W 4098 07414 0403 -140 -460 017014 014 /// /// 03
100900 1705N 06144W 4098 07414 0403 -140 -463 017014 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

929mb

[Michele B]

Northern eyewall is now fully closed:

Wow. Buzz saw indeed.

[brghteys1216]

06Z GFS landfalls in Miami-Dade/WPB then rides up the coast to cape Canaveral before landfalling again at the GA/SC border.

[WAcyclone]

First visible:

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051014
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 14 20170905
100430 1721N 05840W 7072 03019 0019 +114 +079 050057 058 034 002 00
100500 1723N 05842W 7072 03021 0014 +122 +066 052058 058 033 002 00
100530 1724N 05844W 7074 03021 0017 +124 +060 052058 058 034 002 00
100600 1725N 05846W 7075 03020 0023 +120 +058 051056 057 034 001 00
100630 1726N 05848W 7075 03022 0028 +117 +061 052056 057 032 001 00
100700 1727N 05850W 7075 03025 0029 +118 +060 050055 056 032 001 00
100730 1728N 05852W 7072 03030 0027 +122 +054 048056 056 033 001 00
100800 1729N 05854W 7066 03033 0031 +119 +055 047054 054 036 000 03
100830 1728N 05857W 7076 03029 0033 +120 +056 046052 054 031 002 03
100900 1726N 05858W 7077 03027 0034 +119 +056 045054 055 037 000 03
100930 1724N 05858W 7257 02814 0032 +130 +063 041053 054 035 002 00
101000 1721N 05859W 7430 02616 0031 +143 +073 046052 052 037 001 00
101030 1719N 05900W 7497 02542 0033 +149 +078 046052 053 034 001 00
101100 1717N 05900W 7513 02523 0032 +151 +078 047051 052 035 001 00
101130 1714N 05901W 7516 02517 0031 +151 +078 046052 053 035 001 00
101200 1712N 05901W 7516 02516 0031 +151 +078 044053 054 036 001 00
101230 1710N 05902W 7514 02519 0030 +150 +098 037051 052 037 001 00
101300 1707N 05902W 7512 02522 0026 +155 +099 028047 047 036 001 00
101330 1705N 05902W 7509 02527 0028 +154 +093 035047 048 036 001 00
101400 1702N 05903W 7511 02523 0029 +154 +078 037049 049 034 000 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KWBC 051015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/09:43:20Z
B. 16 deg 39 min N
057 deg 19 min W
C. NA
D. 125 kt
E. 097 deg 16 nm
F. 191 deg 129 kt
G. 103 deg 22 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 11 C / 3021 m
J. 17 C / 3476 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345 / NA
O. 2 / 0.1 nm
P. NOAA2 0711A IRMA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 133 KT 296 / 23 NM 09:49:07Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 045 / 10 KTS

[SkeetoBite]

We're getting 60-second G-16 imagery over Irma right now. My jaw just hit the floor...

Yeah, that is stunning and the convective band ahead of it (near PR) looks like a broom clearing the way.

Worried about a Florida east coast atm. Just won't know for another day or two, but ready to light my hair on fire and start running around at a moment's notice.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051019
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 08 20170905
100930 1704N 06142W 4098 07414 0403 -140 -412 020014 015 /// /// 03
101000 1702N 06140W 4098 07416 0403 -140 -445 019015 015 /// /// 03
101030 1701N 06138W 4099 07413 0402 -140 -498 017015 015 /// /// 03
101100 1659N 06135W 4101 07408 0401 -140 -483 017015 016 /// /// 03
101130 1658N 06133W 4099 07410 0400 -140 -462 018016 017 /// /// 03
101200 1657N 06131W 4098 07410 0399 -140 -471 019016 017 /// /// 03
101230 1655N 06129W 4098 07408 0397 -139 -489 014015 016 /// /// 03
101300 1654N 06127W 4101 07405 0396 -139 -493 012016 016 /// /// 03
101330 1652N 06124W 4095 07406 0389 -139 -493 009015 016 /// /// 03
101400 1651N 06122W 4097 07402 0388 -140 -491 011015 015 /// /// 03
101430 1649N 06120W 4094 07406 0390 -140 -474 012016 016 /// /// 03
101500 1648N 06118W 4099 07403 0393 -140 -435 008016 017 /// /// 03
101530 1647N 06116W 4099 07401 0392 -140 -416 013018 019 /// /// 03
101600 1645N 06114W 4099 07402 0392 -145 -290 024020 021 /// /// 03
101630 1644N 06111W 4099 07401 0391 -143 -299 020020 021 /// /// 03
101700 1642N 06109W 4098 07402 0390 -140 -337 018018 019 /// /// 03
101730 1641N 06107W 4101 07396 0388 -142 -272 023018 018 /// /// 03
101800 1640N 06105W 4099 07398 0388 -145 -267 017021 022 /// /// 03
101830 1638N 06103W 4098 07398 0387 -144 -257 022022 022 /// /// 03
101900 1637N 06100W 4098 07398 0386 -141 -284 024020 022 /// /// 03
$$

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051024
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 15 20170905
101430 1700N 05904W 7512 02520 0031 +150 +082 039050 052 032 001 00
101500 1658N 05904W 7514 02517 0031 +149 +082 037048 050 032 000 00
101530 1655N 05905W 7514 02518 0034 +145 +090 028046 047 030 001 00
101600 1653N 05906W 7513 02519 0034 +146 +089 030044 045 030 001 00
101630 1651N 05906W 7515 02517 0033 +147 +088 026045 046 029 001 00
101700 1648N 05907W 7513 02519 0033 +147 +088 025046 047 031 001 00
101730 1646N 05907W 7514 02518 0038 +141 +092 026046 047 029 001 00
101800 1644N 05908W 7514 02519 0035 +145 +093 024046 047 026 002 00
101830 1641N 05908W 7512 02523 0035 +147 +086 025045 046 029 001 00
101900 1639N 05909W 7512 02524 0040 +142 +092 022042 043 028 002 00
101930 1637N 05909W 7513 02523 0042 +139 +097 021039 040 031 001 00
102000 1634N 05909W 7513 02520 0041 +139 +095 020041 041 032 000 00
102030 1632N 05910W 7514 02520 0038 +143 +094 020041 041 031 001 00
102100 1629N 05910W 7513 02521 0033 +149 +086 021042 043 028 002 00
102130 1627N 05910W 7513 02522 0035 +146 +091 020038 038 027 001 00
102200 1625N 05910W 7514 02519 0036 +143 +100 013037 038 026 001 00
102230 1623N 05909W 7513 02519 0040 +137 +114 010038 038 029 002 00
102300 1620N 05909W 7515 02517 0041 +134 +121 005039 040 029 002 00
102330 1618N 05908W 7513 02520 0038 +140 +114 001038 039 028 001 03
102400 1616N 05908W 7513 02519 0036 +141 +126 010035 035 025 000 03

[Weatherboy1]

As we can see from the 6Z GFS vs. the 0Z GFS, the flip flopping of the models is continuing. So it's impossible to say whether the East or West coasts of Florida will be the focus of Irma, or if she will miss the state entirely one way or the other.

BUT based on everything I see out there in the modeling, the overall synoptic setup, etc. this does look like it is a major threat to the peninsula, and a potentially historic storm in terms of damage IF Irma avoids land on her way in this direction. So please take this one very seriously. (Opinion of a semi-educated amateur who has been following hurricanes as a "storm enthusiast" and Florida resident since the early 80s; listen to the NHC for official guidance)

[wx247]

Am increasingly concerned this morning about our friends in the NE islands and Puerto Rico. Need a WNW movement to commence soon.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051029
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 09 20170905
101930 1635N 06058W 4099 07395 0385 -140 -278 017021 021 /// /// 03
102000 1634N 06056W 4098 07394 0383 -144 -293 010021 021 /// /// 03
102030 1633N 06054W 4099 07390 0380 -140 -266 012021 022 /// /// 03
102100 1631N 06052W 4099 07389 0378 -140 -274 008021 022 /// /// 03
102130 1631N 06052W 4099 07389 0378 -140 -281 015020 020 /// /// 03
102200 1628N 06047W 4098 07389 0378 -139 -326 019020 021 /// /// 03
102230 1627N 06045W 4099 07387 0377 -138 -330 017020 021 /// /// 03
102300 1625N 06043W 4099 07386 0377 -136 -360 014021 021 /// /// 03
102330 1624N 06041W 4098 07387 0376 -143 -233 011019 020 /// /// 03
102400 1623N 06039W 4099 07387 0376 -140 -287 015020 020 /// /// 03
102430 1621N 06036W 4098 07391 0379 -141 -299 015021 022 /// /// 03
102500 1620N 06034W 4099 07389 0379 -144 -267 014024 024 /// /// 03
102530 1618N 06032W 4099 07385 0376 -140 -269 013025 025 /// /// 03
102600 1617N 06030W 4101 07383 0375 -140 -265 012022 025 /// /// 03
102630 1615N 06028W 4098 07385 0373 -140 -281 008024 025 /// /// 03
102700 1614N 06025W 4098 07383 0372 -140 -286 004025 026 /// /// 03
102730 1612N 06023W 4099 07380 0370 -138 -288 001026 027 /// /// 03
102800 1611N 06021W 4098 07381 0369 -140 -267 358026 026 /// /// 03
102830 1610N 06019W 4101 07376 0369 -140 -261 359026 027 /// /// 03
102900 1608N 06016W 4101 07376 0368 -140 -252 354025 027 /// /// 03
$$

[tolakram]

SLIDER 1 min visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=755&y=987&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[SouthDadeFish]

This is looking very scary for the Leeward Islands. A borderline category-5 hurricane is still moving due west at 16.7N and 57.3W. Irma needs to start gaining latitude quickly or else the core of the storm will pass through the islands...