ATL: IRMA - Models

[brghteys1216]

what's causing this east shift? is it the weakened ridge due to the trough?

[Vdogg]

Creeping back towards the Carolinas I see. That seems to be the mean. These models have swung wildly both right and left but they always seem to come back to that solution. That's a trend that should definitely be paid attention to.

[Blown Away]

These models are throwing fits now!

Not really, >120hrs only @50 miles between Euro/GFS and landfall and the GFS a little faster... Fl peninsula a skinny target from the S so 50 miles E or W makes huge difference..

[tolakram]

Euro trends west, GFS trends east. PERFECT.

Euro is trending towards UKMET which has had good success in this area.

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs would be a terrible strike as it ravages SE FL and then Georgia/SC.

[Vdogg]

what's causing this east shift? is it the weakened ridge due to the trough?

Not a pro, but just an observation from living in Virginia Beach for 20 years, a NNE coastal rider is a very typical path for these storms this time of year. Those fronts roll through regularly and tend to push these out to sea. I can count on one hand the number of times a storm has done a left hook on this coast while I've been here.

[tgenius]

Euro trends west, GFS trends east. PERFECT.

Euro is trending towards UKMET which has had good success in this area.

Mark the unfortunate part is take Euro and GFS split it down the middle and SFL still is gonna get smacked. Just a question of how much.

[ObsessedMiami]

These models are throwing fits now!

Not really, >120hrs only @50 miles between Euro/GFS and landfall and the GFS a little faster... Fl peninsula a skinny target from the S so 50 miles E or W makes huge difference..

More like a battleship bracketing a target with fire to get the range. People are talking the start of a westward trend followed by the start of an eastward trend one model run later. Seems to me just minor variations on a skinny target as you said.

That said, my interest only lies at this point with the peninsula of Florida. Minor variations play out down the road for sure.

[tolakram]

Euro trends west, GFS trends east. PERFECT.

Euro is trending towards UKMET which has had good success in this area.

Mark the unfortunate part is take Euro and GFS split it down the middle and SFL still is gonna get smacked. Just a question of how much.

I was wrong about the UKMET. While it does show a Cuba hit it also has the storm east of Florida.

[Blown Away]

The 06z GFS is faster than Euro... The 11pm had Irma at 57.4W in 12 hrs... Irma passing 57.4 now, so maybe faster is the trend, but she will need to gain soon latitude to verify...

[Ken711]

Euro trends west, GFS trends east. PERFECT.

Euro is trending towards UKMET which has had good success in this area.

Mark the unfortunate part is take Euro and GFS split it down the middle and SFL still is gonna get smacked. Just a question of how much.

I was wrong about the UKMET. While it does show a Cuba hit it also has the storm east of Florida.

UKMET is making a run at the Outer Banks.

[ronjon]

One shouldn't focus now on individual operational runs but the ensemble runs and if its trending one way or the other. Both this mornings GFS and EC ensemble means shifted significantly west into the eastern GOM. Let's see what they do on the 12z runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090500&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=60

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=544

[robbielyn]

Mark the unfortunate part is take Euro and GFS split it down the middle and SFL still is gonna get smacked. Just a question of how much.

I was wrong about the UKMET. While it does show a Cuba hit it also has the storm east of Florida.

UKMET is making a run at the Outer Banks.

this is more like it! may this or out to sea come to fruition! thus IU s what happens to these storms most of the time.

[Michele B]

East shift on this run. Hope it continues. still a monster.

Hurricane force winds Extend out 80 miles
Trop force go out 150

Monster big

[gatorcane]

Looks,like the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET are on the right (SE Florida) and the ECMWF, CMC, and NAVGEM are on the left (west coast of FL or further west as CMC shows)

[MrJames]

UKMet ensembles

[Steve H.]

Question to the floor...does the 06z GFS run contain the latest Upper Air data?

[robbielyn]

UKMet ensembles

only one takes it north of the islands and it goes out to sea. the rest go through the shredder before hitting to. I like the ukmet ensembles solution.

[NDG]

I was hoping for the 06z GFS to keep trending westward (not to wish it on anybody else) but by it shifting back east from previous run it makes me believe that it is starting to zero in on a track.
It is still 5 days away so things could still change.
Last night's Euro run showing Irma to track into Cuba cannot be dismissed, it is usually a trend setting, but the Euro has been a little left biased with Irma in the 4-7 day range.

[KyleEverett]

I would like to ask that no one "like" a particular model solution at this point. For example, the UK ensembles would absolutely DESTROY Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

There is no good solution to this storm at this point and someone is going to get hit. It will be a disaster no matter what happens now.