ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051034
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 16 20170905
102430 1614N 05907W 7515 02517 0035 +142 +111 009036 037 027 001 03
102500 1612N 05906W 7513 02519 0035 +143 +105 010036 036 024 001 00
102530 1610N 05904W 7514 02516 0035 +140 +111 006036 036 025 001 00
102600 1608N 05903W 7513 02517 0033 +141 +114 003037 037 026 001 00
102630 1607N 05901W 7513 02516 0033 +140 +116 000036 036 025 001 00
102700 1605N 05900W 7514 02515 0033 +139 +113 357036 037 026 000 03
102730 1603N 05859W 7512 02518 0033 +141 +114 356034 035 024 002 00
102800 1600N 05859W 7512 02518 0034 +141 +105 352032 033 026 001 00
102830 1558N 05858W 7512 02521 0040 +137 +111 347030 031 025 001 00
102900 1556N 05858W 7511 02522 0043 +136 +100 340029 030 023 001 00
102930 1554N 05857W 7513 02519 0041 +136 +104 350030 030 023 000 00
103000 1552N 05856W 7513 02518 0041 +136 +099 348029 030 024 001 00
103030 1550N 05855W 7514 02517 0041 +135 +102 349032 033 022 001 00
103100 1548N 05854W 7513 02519 0042 +135 +100 346033 034 021 002 00
103130 1546N 05853W 7514 02518 0044 +135 +093 338032 033 023 002 00
103200 1544N 05852W 7513 02522 0046 +136 +089 329029 030 025 001 00
103230 1542N 05850W 7513 02521 0047 +134 +091 329028 029 023 000 00
103300 1540N 05849W 7514 02521 0045 +136 +090 327029 029 023 002 00
103330 1538N 05848W 7513 02520 0047 +133 +097 323028 028 022 001 00
103400 1536N 05847W 7513 02521 0047 +133 +103 321029 030 021 001 00

[tolakram]

[tigerz3030]

Hope this question is ok in the model thread:

1. When should we start seeing the WNW turn to avoid the islands?

2. Still 5 days out, but seems models have locked in to a N turn up the peninsula of FL with marginal errors E or W, so should we assume the BIG swings are more than likely done?

[WAcyclone]

SLIDER 1 min visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=755&y=987&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Thanks for the link! This is the strongest storm ever observed by GOES-16:

[Big Easy Breeze]

This is looking very scary for the Leeward Islands. A borderline category-5 hurricane is still moving due west at 16.7N and 57.3W. Irma needs to start gaining latitude quickly or else the core of the storm will pass through the islands...

And this will have implications on the path down the road for Irma. Lower latitude = less influenced by higher latitude weather patterns later on in the forecast period.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051038
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 10 20170905
102930 1607N 06014W 4099 07376 0366 -139 -314 354024 025 /// /// 03
103000 1605N 06012W 4098 07376 0366 -140 -310 351023 024 /// /// 03
103030 1604N 06010W 4098 07376 0366 -140 -302 350022 023 /// /// 03
103100 1602N 06007W 4099 07376 0367 -140 -295 348023 024 /// /// 03
103130 1601N 06005W 4099 07374 0365 -140 -304 345023 023 /// /// 03
103200 1559N 06003W 4098 07378 0366 -143 -327 347024 024 /// /// 03
103230 1558N 06001W 4098 07384 0372 -144 -325 347024 025 /// /// 03
103300 1556N 05958W 4100 07382 0374 -140 -315 349025 026 /// /// 03
103330 1555N 05956W 4098 07387 0375 -140 -313 348026 026 /// /// 03
103400 1553N 05954W 4099 07385 0374 -140 -312 349025 026 /// /// 03
103430 1552N 05952W 4099 07384 0373 -136 -338 347025 025 /// /// 03
103500 1550N 05949W 4099 07384 0374 -138 -308 350026 027 /// /// 03
103530 1549N 05947W 4098 07386 0374 -139 -312 350027 027 /// /// 03
103600 1547N 05945W 4098 07386 0375 -136 -330 348026 026 /// /// 03
103630 1546N 05943W 4101 07384 0376 -139 -329 350026 026 /// /// 03
103700 1544N 05940W 4098 07387 0376 -140 -314 347025 026 /// /// 03
103730 1543N 05938W 4105 07379 0379 -141 -313 346026 026 /// /// 03
103800 1541N 05936W 4213 07188 0373 -128 -305 348025 026 /// /// 03
103830 1540N 05933W 4359 06928 0357 -106 -371 345022 024 /// /// 03
103900 1538N 05931W 4510 06666 0339 -084 -338 341023 024 /// /// 03
$$

[robbielyn]

Hope this question is ok in the model thread:

1. When should we start seeing the WNW turn to avoid the islands?

2. Still 5 days out, but seems models have locked in to a N turn up the peninsula of FL with marginal errors E or W, so should we assume the BIG swings are more than likely done?

22 hours from now before the wnw turn per 5am nhc disco. Not quite yet could trend out to sea hit n/c. I expect models to shift more east today back west some tomorrow. following tcvn.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/0m953zH.png

Looks like she might have started to make the expected wnw turn.

[northjaxpro]

Hope this question is ok in the model thread:

1. When should we start seeing the WNW turn to avoid the islands?

2. Still 5 days out, but seems models have locked in to a N turn up the peninsula of FL with marginal errors E or W, so should we assume the BIG swings are more than likely done?

Yes. There may be very subtle changes, but the wide swings I think are done. We are inside of 5 days of the event and the models have pretty.much locked in on a solution. You may have a subtle change east or west. Now, in this case. subtle changes could mean very significant diffetences I may add, like.with having say Irma have land interaction with Cuba or Miami barely missing a direct landfall for example.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051044
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 17 20170905
103430 1534N 05846W 7513 02522 0040 +140 +103 316030 031 022 001 00
103500 1532N 05844W 7514 02521 0041 +141 +093 315032 033 021 001 00
103530 1530N 05843W 7513 02523 0043 +139 +092 315033 034 019 002 00
103600 1528N 05842W 7513 02521 0041 +140 +094 311032 034 020 001 00
103630 1526N 05842W 7512 02525 0046 +137 +093 307031 031 020 001 00
103700 1523N 05841W 7513 02523 0041 +141 +095 307032 033 020 001 00
103730 1521N 05841W 7514 02521 0035 +148 +087 311033 034 019 001 00
103800 1519N 05840W 7513 02522 0035 +149 +082 313032 033 022 001 00
103830 1517N 05840W 7512 02525 0044 +141 +087 310030 031 022 000 00
103900 1515N 05839W 7514 02524 0052 +133 +100 310029 029 018 001 00
103930 1512N 05839W 7484 02556 0051 +131 +107 314029 029 021 001 00
104000 1510N 05839W 7467 02578 0052 +131 +102 313027 028 023 001 00
104030 1508N 05839W 7506 02538 0056 +131 +103 310027 027 021 000 00
104100 1506N 05839W 7497 02548 0056 +129 +109 311027 028 019 002 00
104130 1504N 05838W 7480 02567 0057 +128 +101 310028 028 020 000 03
104200 1503N 05836W 7498 02542 0056 +131 +092 306027 027 024 001 00
104230 1502N 05834W 7527 02513 0058 +131 +098 302027 028 024 001 03
104300 1504N 05832W 7530 02504 0048 +136 +098 300027 028 025 001 00
104330 1505N 05830W 7528 02510 0052 +135 +096 300028 028 024 001 03
104400 1507N 05829W 7530 02504 0048 +135 +102 299028 029 022 001 00

[dexterlabio]

Perhaps another success EWRC and almost full CDG ring would make Irma a real contender to snatch Wilma's title in the ATL.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051048
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 11 20170905
103930 1537N 05929W 4686 06371 0322 -070 -341 335024 025 /// /// 03
104000 1535N 05927W 4866 06074 0302 -052 -295 334026 027 /// /// 03
104030 1534N 05925W 5060 05767 0282 -037 -206 346030 032 /// /// 03
104100 1533N 05923W 5240 05485 0260 -022 -145 345031 033 /// /// 03
104130 1531N 05921W 5394 05255 0244 -008 -129 330028 030 /// /// 03
104200 1530N 05918W 5565 05006 0037 +004 -105 325027 028 /// /// 03
104230 1528N 05916W 5742 04756 0043 +017 -081 328028 028 /// /// 03
104300 1527N 05914W 5924 04503 0057 +026 -064 327029 029 /// /// 03
104330 1526N 05912W 6102 04261 0056 +040 -052 327028 029 /// /// 03
104400 1524N 05910W 6276 04031 0049 +060 -053 329028 029 /// /// 03
104430 1523N 05908W 6460 03794 0048 +075 -050 325029 029 /// /// 03
104500 1523N 05908W 6460 03794 0062 +077 -020 317029 029 /// /// 03
104530 1521N 05904W 6830 03332 0072 +083 +007 317028 029 /// /// 03
104600 1519N 05903W 6948 03179 0064 +089 +014 326029 029 024 000 00
104630 1518N 05901W 6965 03152 0054 +091 +015 328029 030 025 001 00
104700 1517N 05859W 6966 03155 0058 +091 +015 323029 030 026 000 03
104730 1517N 05857W 6965 03152 0051 +095 +014 323028 029 024 000 03
104800 1518N 05856W 6969 03147 0054 +093 +013 325028 028 024 000 00
104830 1519N 05855W 6966 03151 0049 +095 +017 329031 033 024 000 00
104900 1520N 05854W 6969 03147 0046 +097 +012 329029 031 026 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop into Irma's eye, incredible!
You can see the inside eyewall.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

I think New Orleans would disagree with that completely. And Louisiana is the most proned to storm surge, when it is probably the flattest state in the country. I live about 30 miles as the crow flies from the coast of the GoM and only like 15 feet above sea level. I looked at the storm surge probability map and where I live if I was suppose to have Cat 5 storm surge at my house it would have over 6 feet of water in it and a town that is just 4 miles West of me would be under 9 feet of water.

in Montegut: My mom's ground elevation is about 2.6 ft.. my house is 8ft off the ground. Im in Houma/Dulac: My ground elevation is about 2.7 ft.. my house is 6ft off the ground. I live closer to the intercoastal canal so we flood when we had heavy rains.. Neighbors up the street usually don't flood unless it is a bad storm.

Only storm to flood my home in Dulac was Ike 2008. I lived in Montegut most my life and when through Danny and Juan "85, Andrew 1992, Lilli 2002, Rita 2005, Gustav and Ike 2008 and Isaac 2012. And I prob forgot one or two lol but these storms flooded or damaged our homes to a degree that it costed us money to fix.

Now homes up ^^^^^^ and flooding is not a problem unless you get a monster storm. Wind is always a problem--tornado, etc. I thinking i;m ready to move away for the coast. The problem is to get my family to come along with me. my children are Bayou boys. They love the water, hunting, fishing. etc. I will have to wait until they age out and then I can run away lol .

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC has been using the Fl straights as a holding cell for Irma the last 3 advisories at 120hr. I would think they have to shift NE on next to show the turn into FL. Especially with the GFS well east.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051054
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 18 20170905
104430 1508N 05828W 7530 02502 0043 +139 +100 297027 028 022 001 00
104500 1510N 05827W 7530 02503 0045 +137 +100 297027 028 023 001 00
104530 1512N 05826W 7530 02502 0043 +140 +091 298028 029 022 001 00
104600 1514N 05825W 7533 02496 0044 +137 +095 294028 029 021 001 00
104630 1516N 05824W 7530 02499 0042 +135 +115 295031 032 023 001 00
104700 1517N 05823W 7509 02529 0042 +138 +114 300033 034 023 002 00
104730 1519N 05822W 7530 02498 0042 +136 +089 295034 035 023 001 00
104800 1521N 05821W 7529 02502 0041 +137 +089 292033 034 022 001 00
104830 1523N 05820W 7530 02495 0037 +138 +095 290035 035 023 000 00
104900 1525N 05819W 7530 02493 0032 +141 +088 287033 034 023 001 00
104930 1526N 05818W 7529 02494 0026 +148 +078 285031 031 024 002 00
105000 1528N 05817W 7530 02490 0028 +142 +087 285031 031 025 001 00
105030 1530N 05816W 7529 02494 0032 +138 +097 285030 030 025 001 00
105100 1532N 05815W 7529 02492 0034 +133 +105 292030 031 024 001 00
105130 1534N 05814W 7527 02492 0032 +133 +113 291030 030 024 001 00
105200 1535N 05812W 7513 02505 0030 +131 +112 298028 029 025 002 00
105230 1537N 05811W 7531 02479 0022 +137 +108 294030 031 028 003 00
105300 1539N 05810W 7513 02504 0019 +139 +102 291031 032 031 002 00
105330 1540N 05808W 7530 02476 0012 +143 +100 290031 032 035 002 00
105400 1542N 05807W 7498 02515 0012 +141 +101 297034 036 036 002 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051059
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 12 20170905
104930 1522N 05852W 6966 03151 0050 +095 +012 328029 030 025 000 00
105000 1523N 05851W 6969 03135 0033 +097 +009 326028 029 024 000 00
105030 1524N 05850W 6967 03150 0048 +098 +009 320028 029 026 000 00
105100 1525N 05849W 6969 03146 0056 +091 +012 320027 027 027 000 00
105130 1527N 05847W 6967 03149 0057 +090 +012 326027 028 027 000 00
105200 1528N 05846W 6967 03145 0049 +093 +011 317027 027 026 000 00
105230 1529N 05845W 6969 03145 0049 +095 +010 317029 030 027 001 00
105300 1530N 05843W 6969 03142 0047 +095 +015 325032 032 027 000 00
105330 1532N 05842W 6967 03145 0041 +099 +010 325031 032 027 000 00
105400 1533N 05841W 6963 03146 0047 +091 +017 322031 032 027 000 00
105430 1534N 05840W 6967 03144 0050 +089 +018 321030 031 028 000 00
105500 1535N 05838W 6971 03134 0046 +089 +019 319031 032 026 000 00
105530 1537N 05837W 6963 03144 0051 +084 +029 314029 030 027 000 00
105600 1538N 05836W 6967 03136 0049 +084 +034 312029 030 029 000 00
105630 1539N 05834W 6968 03135 0047 +084 +035 312029 030 029 001 00
105700 1540N 05833W 6967 03135 0058 +072 +056 309029 029 031 007 00
105730 1542N 05832W 6965 03133 0071 +065 +065 316031 035 033 012 03
105800 1543N 05831W 6967 03132 0057 +072 +070 322038 040 037 010 00
105830 1544N 05829W 6966 03134 0039 +082 +071 319038 044 035 009 00
105900 1545N 05828W 6961 03135 0039 +081 +066 318036 040 035 014 00
$$
;

[ronjon]

NHC has been using the Fl straights as a holding cell for Irma the last 3 advisories at 120hr. I would think they have to shift NE on next to show the turn into FL. Especially with the GFS well east.

Yeah they'll have to pick a landfall point soon and go with an initial 5 day impact point. Most likely TVCN or they'll wait until after the 12z runs today.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 051104
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 19 20170905
105430 1544N 05805W 7529 02475 0009 +140 +109 298035 035 035 002 00
105500 1545N 05804W 7529 02472 0008 +137 +110 296037 038 034 002 00
105530 1547N 05803W 7552 02445 0008 +135 +118 287042 046 036 002 00
105600 1549N 05802W 7529 02466 9997 +139 +125 292040 041 036 004 00
105630 1551N 05801W 7529 02464 9990 +144 +103 290045 047 036 003 00
105700 1552N 05800W 7499 02489 9992 +133 +112 293046 046 038 002 00
105730 1554N 05759W 7530 02449 9982 +137 +122 290050 052 039 002 00
105800 1556N 05758W 7526 02452 9981 +136 +108 288053 054 039 003 00
105830 1558N 05756W 7516 02457 9971 +139 +115 286053 055 041 003 00
105900 1600N 05755W 7530 02433 9960 +140 +117 294054 056 042 003 00
105930 1601N 05754W 7529 02429 9953 +141 +113 294056 056 044 003 00
110000 1603N 05753W 7530 02415 9946 +136 +122 291059 061 044 004 00
110030 1605N 05752W 7511 02431 9941 +132 +116 292063 064 047 001 00
110100 1607N 05751W 7526 02403 9929 +133 +120 294068 071 050 006 00
110130 1608N 05750W 7544 02372 9915 +133 +132 295074 075 052 006 00
110200 1610N 05749W 7560 02340 9897 +140 +120 296075 076 055 004 00
110230 1612N 05748W 7521 02368 9877 +141 +126 295078 083 059 009 00
110300 1614N 05747W 7538 02328 9861 +133 +131 291085 086 063 015 00
110330 1616N 05746W 7530 02316 9844 +128 //// 288091 093 066 017 05
110400 1617N 05745W 7498 02329 9814 +131 //// 287096 099 073 011 01

[jlauderdal]

NHC has been using the Fl straights as a holding cell for Irma the last 3 advisories at 120hr. I would think they have to shift NE on next to show the turn into FL. Especially with the GFS well east.

its one run of the gfs, i doubt they bend it that hard to make landfall on the peninsula...if the euro shows an east trend then yes at 5 pm they will bend it