ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3721 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:58 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3722 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:59 am

Avn color image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3723 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:59 am

Wow... just wow. Those poor folks in the islands. Why can't the US govt start chartering flights and getting people the hell out of Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3724 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:00 am

Irma is about the same strength as TC Winston atm when it hit fiji. I hope the best for anyone in its the path. Fiji recovered and you guys will too.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3725 Postby O Town » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:00 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3726 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:01 am

Ntxw wrote:Avn color image

Image


Classic classic classic. That classic buzzsaw look. It's winds are so high considering its cloud tops though. Interesting.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3727 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:03 am

Sending my thoughts and prayers to the Antilles. Our country has been through this and hopefully like us a spirit of resilience and hope embodies citizens along the path of this tempest.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3728 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:03 am

invest man wrote:GFS has been showing for days a very intense storm with winds and pressure being where it is now. Most of us could not really buy into it thinking it was in fantasy land. However a question for us is would the stronger lower pressure allow it the more probability to be more or less influenced by the trough and kick it more east or not be influenced at all by the trough and continue more westerly. Perhaps the strength of the storm is why GFS is showing a slight eastern path now. Just an observation.


I can only speak for myself but I never questioned the pressures here, it's the sub 900's up in the Bahamas that are questionable IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3729 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:03 am

I just have a sick feeling about this now. Good luck to all our friends in the islands. You're all in my thoughts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3730 Postby BucMan2 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:03 am

Good morning to all-

Ready for another crazy day- What synoptic feature in the 6Z caused the move back from West Coast to East coast of Florida and do we
expect continued wiper effects for the next few days? Also should we go by the operational or the ensembles?

Thanks-
Craig
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3731 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:03 am

Updated intensity forecast.


INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3732 Postby Evenstar » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:05 am

BlowHard wrote:
Arsynic wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:First visible:

Image

Good Morning, beautiful...


Beautiful? Sure wish I had the luxury of that emotion. This storm is about to blow apart the world of millions down here. In PR, we have been told to expect to be without electricity for up to three months.


Tigers will eat you alive, but they are still beautiful. I'm in the cone and I can see the beauty in her without discounting her lethality.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3733 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:06 am

BlowHard wrote:
Arsynic wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:First visible:

Image

Good Morning, beautiful...


Beautiful? Sure wish I had the luxury of that emotion. This storm is about to blow apart the world of millions down here. In PR, we have been told to expect to be without electricity for up to three months.


Praying for you guys.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3734 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:08 am

Are they not updating the map for 8am?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3735 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:08 am

If not for recon, Irma would not have been analyzed as a category 5 hurricane with a DT of 6.5.

Image

The 12Z NHC forecast is worth almost 40 ACE alone.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3736 Postby pcolaman » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:08 am

I think I recall someone saying that the pressures sub 900 were out in fantasy land. Now I am not so sure this won't happen. Like some kind of bad dream is happening.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#3737 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:08 am

This drop in the NE eyewall measured 188 kt winds at 902 mb.... By the time it reached the surface it was already in the NW eyewall.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3738 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:12 am

1900hurricane wrote:If not for recon, Irma would not have been analyzed as a category 5 hurricane with a DT of 6.5.

https://i.imgur.com/8vSTwoY.gif

The 12Z NHC forecast is worth almost 40 ACE alone.


It probably did a little earlier overnight with W ring and some CMG and winds lagged a bit. Still though the winds are very high without a ring of CMG. Lots to ponder about typhoons and some EPAC systems. But not to understate the intensity of Irma which is now one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic on record.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3739 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:16 am

Lets stay civil folks and be thoughtful of others. There is a scientific and human part to all of this we are all aware. Discuss the storm, not other posters.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3740 Postby Nightwatch » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:19 am

I hope that at least Haiti gets spared... I really wonder what the next few days bring...

It has been since 2005 that two names in one Atlantic season are being taken from the name list, this season could at least get two as well... :eek:
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