ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Up to 180mph now:

AL, 11, 2017090512, , BEST, 0, 167N, 578W, 155, 929, HU

[xtyphooncyclonex]

in a nutshell: Terrifyingly beautiful.

While it may not be at its peak, this photo is historic

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops have warmed so probably is going to weaken but knowing Irma it could restrengthen, as it has been like that its entire existence. Anyways, cat 5 or high end cat 4 is extremely dangerous. Hope preparations are already done.

Irma is the strongest Atlantic hurricane in terms of winds and pressure since 2007 Felix. It's also teh first time since 2004-2005 that 2 consecutive seasons have seen category 5 hurricanes.

[Kazmit]

Wow. The strongest Atlantic hurricane I have ever tracked. And it's still strengthening.

[Scorpion]

Unbelievable, don't think this is even at it's peak now. Water in the straights has so much more TCHP.

[tolakram]

[AdamFirst]

Hoping this lifts very quickly for our friends in the Antilles...I know that has implications down the line for other folks...but right now they're staring down the barrel.

[dukeblue219]

cannot believe what I am seeing. Not only is this stronger than I expected, it is gaining latitude later than I expected. This is bringing additional islands into play, such as St. Kitts, and the USVI

Maybe the GFS hasn't been so far off base with it's strength predictions

It's possible. That said, there's still a massive difference (in historical likelihood for the non-Gulf Atlantic) between ~930mb and ~900mb, and even more so when the model starts spitting out ridiculous 880mb numbers.

At this level I think it's beyond the ability of anyone or any computer to forecast further intensity gains except for large-scale factors like land interactions, shear, and so forth. A lot will depend on complex dynamics inside that core and the randomness of ERC. I figure it's just as likely to see the pressure fall to 915 and the winds actually decrease to 160 by the end of the day as it is to even maintain those winds. Even in perfect conditions Cat5's just don't stay that way for long usually.

[TheProfessor]

Wow, Irma is just insane right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Right on track. (For now)

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like shes right on track. god the NHC is good.

[dukeblue219]

I just noticed (maybe I missed a post) the USAF dropsonde that fell through 188 kt (216mph) winds at the 902-mb level

Code: Select all

913mb   80° (from the E)   180 knots (207 mph)
902mb   85° (from the E)   188 knots (216 mph)
899mb   85° (from the E)   186 knots (214 mph)
894mb   90° (from the E)   173 knots (199 mph)
886mb   95° (from the E)   174 knots (200 mph)
881mb   100° (from the E)   182 knots (209 mph)
878mb   100° (from the E)   181 knots (208 mph)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

First closely tracked Atlantic hurricane and it turns out to be a classic West Pacific super typhoon, but actually worse. I've never expected Irma to become a category five at this stage but wow

[FireRat]

Simply amazing hurricane this morning, holy cow!
I feel like I'm watching history repeat itself looking at Irma and its projected path and intensity. It's like watching the 1928 hurricane or 1960's Donna with 21st century technology. This storm seems to be on a Donna-like track at least until it's near the FL keys.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Storm-Surge already effecting St.Maarten many hours ahead of Irma

[plasticup]

I just noticed (maybe I missed a post) the USAF dropsonde that fell through 188 kt (216mph) winds at the 902-mb level

Code: Select all

913mb   80° (from the E)   180 knots (207 mph)
902mb   85° (from the E)   188 knots (216 mph)
899mb   85° (from the E)   186 knots (214 mph)
894mb   90° (from the E)   173 knots (199 mph)
886mb   95° (from the E)   174 knots (200 mph)
881mb   100° (from the E)   182 knots (209 mph)
878mb   100° (from the E)   181 knots (208 mph)

That makes it one of the 6 strongest Atlantic storms ever.

[tigerz3030]

Prayers with the islands right now for sure!!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905051107113582592




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
How strong is #Irma? Its current intensity of 175 mph is the same as Hurricane Katrina (2005) at its max intensity.
8:52 AM - Sep 5, 2017

[cjrciadt]

I can barely eat breakfast Just wow! Wilma winds yet higher pressure . Yet the models drop pressure even more!!

[eastcoastFL]

 https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/status/905050524055162883




Ive never seen a close up into an eye of a hurricane like this before.