ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Wobbles one way or the other are crucial from now on. Short term track is a big, big deal.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051308
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 25 20170905
125930 1650N 05812W 6969 02566 9355 +144 +143 036083 091 103 001 05
130000 1649N 05811W 6972 02533 9309 +152 +145 037063 082 069 002 00
130030 1648N 05809W 6973 02515 9285 +164 +147 044037 054 056 002 03
130100 1647N 05808W 6969 02515 9287 +157 +148 073018 028 030 002 03
130130 1646N 05807W 6952 02538 9290 +155 +145 090012 016 022 001 00
130200 1644N 05807W 6975 02513 9294 +156 +140 066005 011 024 000 00
130230 1642N 05807W 6966 02528 9294 +159 +136 269005 010 023 000 00
130300 1640N 05806W 6975 02526 9297 +165 +129 269018 023 028 000 03
130330 1639N 05805W 6962 02552 9305 +165 +130 255029 033 032 001 03
130400 1638N 05803W 6966 02555 9328 +155 +131 246044 050 049 002 00
130430 1637N 05801W 6969 02572 9357 +150 +129 240061 068 066 003 00
130500 1636N 05759W 6967 02605 9392 +146 +126 240081 091 096 005 03
130530 1635N 05757W 6969 02642 //// +119 //// 239103 109 128 009 05
130600 1634N 05756W 6964 02693 9533 +115 //// 235112 115 137 014 05
130630 1633N 05755W 6961 02735 9579 +120 +120 237115 118 /// /// 03
130700 1631N 05754W 6960 02784 9639 +116 +116 236122 130 /// /// 03
130730 1630N 05752W 6972 02823 9696 +109 +109 230123 126 123 041 00
130800 1629N 05751W 6964 02862 9737 +104 +104 226110 122 113 020 00
130830 1628N 05750W 6968 02884 9766 +100 +100 226105 106 102 015 00
130900 1627N 05749W 6964 02919 9803 +096 +096 225100 103 093 012 00
$$
;

Cat 5 winds surround the eye now.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Evenstar]

I've never seen a shot of the inside of an eye at this angle before. That's incredible.

[hurricaneCW]

Don't focus on the center either, it's that eyewall that will likely graze those islands even if the eye goes just north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I've never seen a shot of the inside of an eye at this angle before. That's incredible.

Definite Isabel vibes this morning...

[JaxGator]

Oh man, Irma is now a Cat 5. Not good. Even if it does another EWRC soon, it wouldn't make much difference I'm afraid (either a 4 or 5) so I hope a good wobble would spare ya'll in the Antilles that are in the path the worst. You're in my thoughts in prayers and I hope that y'all have a means of protecting yourself the best you can.

[dexterlabio]

I believe Irma can still improve its appearance until it gets close to Cuba. I am completely stunned by the 150kt recon reading. I wonder if Dvorak estimates skyrocketed further to 7.0 or even 7.5, what kind of hellish winds will recon find?

[Evenstar]

I've never seen a shot of the inside of an eye at this angle before. That's incredible.

Definite Isabel vibes this morning...

Gawd, I hope not. That went rather badly for us in the Tidewater.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I believe Irma can still improve its appearance until it gets close to Cuba. I am completely stunned by the 150kt recon reading. I wonder if Dvorak estimates skyrocketed further to 7.0 or even 7.5, what kind of hellish winds will recon find?

7.5 for this would probably close or equivalent to Haiyan's 8.0 at 170 kts if ever such would pan out

[CrazyC83]

I believe Irma can still improve its appearance until it gets close to Cuba. I am completely stunned by the 150kt recon reading. I wonder if Dvorak estimates skyrocketed further to 7.0 or even 7.5, what kind of hellish winds will recon find?

7.5 for this would probably close or equivalent to Haiyan's 8.0 at 170 kts if ever such would pan out

Of course, Wilma may have easily been 170 kt or more since there was no SFMR instrument on that plane and the 90% rule isn't necessarily true in bombing out storms.

That said, seeing a ring of CDG in the Atlantic would be unprecedented.

[KBBOCA]

good morning from Guadeloupe
I m not a pro but that thing don't seems to go north....but i'm not a pro

Prayers for you and all on Guadeloupe today. Such a beautiful island that I had the pleasure of visiting many years ago.
Hard to imagine being in the Islands with a storm like this. We're all hoping Irma will turn North. I pray you have somewhere safe to shelter during the storm.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is starting the pull up which means the NHC track is probably still in play...


I need an another half hour sleep...Big day today...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051319
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 26 20170905
130930 1626N 05748W 6972 02933 9830 +096 +096 223097 103 089 015 00
131000 1625N 05747W 6964 02960 9858 +090 +090 219091 094 083 014 00
131030 1624N 05746W 6970 02970 9875 +089 +089 219092 093 078 013 00
131100 1623N 05745W 6971 02983 9882 +087 //// 218091 092 075 008 01
131130 1621N 05743W 6962 03008 9890 +085 //// 218090 093 071 005 01
131200 1620N 05742W 6971 03009 //// +082 //// 218086 089 068 003 01
131230 1619N 05741W 6967 03028 //// +084 //// 217084 085 066 003 01
131300 1618N 05740W 6967 03040 //// +091 //// 214079 083 064 002 01
131330 1617N 05739W 6969 03048 9934 +091 +085 213078 078 063 003 00
131400 1616N 05738W 6968 03055 9948 +081 //// 217076 078 062 003 01
131430 1615N 05737W 6962 03070 9954 +085 +083 216074 075 057 001 01
131500 1614N 05736W 6971 03062 //// +085 //// 216072 074 055 002 01
131530 1613N 05734W 6967 03070 //// +086 //// 217070 071 056 001 01
131600 1611N 05733W 6970 03072 //// +085 //// 216068 070 054 001 01
131630 1610N 05732W 6971 03076 //// +085 //// 217067 068 054 001 05
131700 1609N 05731W 6970 03083 9973 +092 +084 214064 065 052 000 00
131730 1608N 05730W 6967 03088 9979 +089 +086 214061 064 051 001 00
131800 1607N 05729W 6974 03087 9989 +088 +084 213059 060 051 000 00
131830 1606N 05727W 6967 03100 9984 +098 +076 213059 060 049 001 00
131900 1604N 05726W 6972 03098 9983 +103 +071 214058 059 048 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Wide view, water vapor.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9040&y=7632&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=7&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[kthmcc7319]

FL panhandle resident here, just north of Destin. How confident are we in IRMA making the hard north turn before slipping into the GOM? Track looks eerily similar to Kate and Georges.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like it is starting the pull up which means the NHC track is probably still in play...

As if there were any doubt.

[tolakram]

FL panhandle resident here, just north of Destin. How confident are we in IRMA making the hard north turn before slipping into the GOM? Track looks eerily similar to Kate and Georges.

Too far out to say for sure <- is the best answer. Follow the NHC and keep watching model runs as we get closer. IMO right now everyone in Florida should be ready to execute their hurricane plan if/when we are more sure.

[Kazmit]

Full earth view
https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg