ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051328
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 27 20170905
131930 1603N 05725W 6965 03110 9991 +100 +073 213057 057 046 000 03
132000 1602N 05724W 6974 03102 9992 +103 +061 211057 058 045 000 00
132030 1601N 05723W 6959 03124 9996 +105 +048 210055 056 043 001 03
132100 1600N 05722W 6970 03112 9997 +107 +044 211052 054 044 000 00
132130 1559N 05720W 6970 03116 0008 +097 +059 210050 051 045 001 00
132200 1557N 05719W 6971 03115 0011 +096 +061 208051 053 044 000 03
132230 1556N 05718W 6969 03119 0006 +104 +047 200052 053 041 000 03
132300 1555N 05717W 6965 03123 0011 +098 +051 201052 053 040 000 00
132330 1554N 05716W 6967 03124 0016 +098 +056 207052 053 041 000 00
132400 1553N 05715W 6971 03123 0014 +101 +054 206052 053 043 001 00
132430 1552N 05713W 6967 03129 0017 +098 +054 208049 051 043 001 00
132500 1551N 05712W 6969 03130 0024 +098 +059 211049 050 043 001 00
132530 1549N 05711W 6965 03133 0031 +090 +060 203048 049 043 001 00
132600 1548N 05710W 6975 03128 0030 +096 +054 200049 050 041 001 03
132630 1547N 05709W 6966 03140 0022 +104 +049 205049 049 040 001 00
132700 1546N 05708W 6971 03136 0035 +097 +043 206048 048 039 001 00
132730 1545N 05707W 6965 03145 0040 +092 +055 205046 048 039 000 00
132800 1544N 05705W 6974 03135 0041 +091 +067 202045 045 039 001 00
132830 1542N 05704W 6966 03146 0039 +094 +063 199044 045 038 001 00
132900 1541N 05703W 6971 03141 0034 +101 +055 199042 044 039 001 03
$$
;

[dexterlabio]

Of course, Wilma may have easily been 170 kt or more since there was no SFMR instrument on that plane and the 90% rule isn't necessarily true in bombing out storms.

That said, seeing a ring of CDG in the Atlantic would be unprecedented.

I'm not sure but the current location of Irma might not even be the most favorable region in the Atlantic to support Cat5s. If we believe the models, the area near the Caribbean islands and South Florida has the best potential to support such intensity. So I think there is still a chance to see a CDG ring with Irma, or maybe close.

I believe this Atlantic region has a lot of untapped energy after all these years, thus a record-breaking hurricane wouldn't surprise me.

[Ntxw]

I believe Irma can still improve its appearance until it gets close to Cuba. I am completely stunned by the 150kt recon reading. I wonder if Dvorak estimates skyrocketed further to 7.0 or even 7.5, what kind of hellish winds will recon find?

7.5 for this would probably close or equivalent to Haiyan's 8.0 at 170 kts if ever such would pan out

Of course, Wilma may have easily been 170 kt or more since there was no SFMR instrument on that plane and the 90% rule isn't necessarily true in bombing out storms.

That said, seeing a ring of CDG in the Atlantic would be unprecedented.

Only Wilma (that I have seen) had a ringish CDG but it wasn't closed off completely in the NATL. Only Patricia in the WHEM had a thick full CDG that I've seen. Maybe Gilbert did but I've never been able to find BD on it.

Irma's cloud tops have warmed some compared to overnight. I hope, for the islands, that she weakens some but I wouldn't bet on it if I lived there

[mrbagyo]

Irma's eyewall now coming into Guadeloupe-Martinique radar range.

I believe Irma can still improve its appearance until it gets close to Cuba. I am completely stunned by the 150kt recon reading. I wonder if Dvorak estimates skyrocketed further to 7.0 or even 7.5, what kind of hellish winds will recon find?

7.5 for this would probably close or equivalent to Haiyan's 8.0 at 170 kts if ever such would pan out

We're not even sure if Haiyan was "just" 170 knots- it's just an estimate.
It's difficult to assess the intensity of recon cane vs non-recon typhoon.
Might just go back to 2010 Megi for fair comparison or Betty 1987 (underwhelming cloud patern but with 891mb reannalyzed by Knaff @ 170 knots)

[dexterlabio]

Full earth view
https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg

Irma kinda looks like Noru in the WPAC at its peak.

[MississippiWx]

Of course, Wilma may have easily been 170 kt or more since there was no SFMR instrument on that plane and the 90% rule isn't necessarily true in bombing out storms.

That said, seeing a ring of CDG in the Atlantic would be unprecedented.

I'm not sure but the current location of Irma might not even be the most favorable region in the Atlantic to support Cat5s. If we believe the models, the area near the Caribbean islands and South Florida has the best potential to support such intensity. So I think there is still a chance to see a CDG ring with Irma, or maybe close.

I believe this Atlantic region has a lot of untapped energy after all these years, thus a record-breaking hurricane wouldn't surprise me.

I'm nit-picking, but the ocean doesn't just store heat energy from one year to the next. Seasonal processes take away heat along with currents and other processes. It doesn't matter if a hurricane touched that spot last year. It would have the same heat energy available this year regardless.

[galaxy401]

Welp...I had a feeling this would be a category 5 when I woke up but this is still something to behold! Irma looks terrifying! This is going to be bad for the Caribbean islands. Be very careful...

[GCANE]

[Callista]

When I look at that track, all I can think of is, "Please not Haiti again."

Whenever Haiti gets hit, there's catastrophic damage, lots of deaths, and they haven't got a lot of reserve to rebuild either.

[Callista]

Of course, Wilma may have easily been 170 kt or more since there was no SFMR instrument on that plane and the 90% rule isn't necessarily true in bombing out storms.

That said, seeing a ring of CDG in the Atlantic would be unprecedented.

I'm not sure but the current location of Irma might not even be the most favorable region in the Atlantic to support Cat5s. If we believe the models, the area near the Caribbean islands and South Florida has the best potential to support such intensity. So I think there is still a chance to see a CDG ring with Irma, or maybe close.

I believe this Atlantic region has a lot of untapped energy after all these years, thus a record-breaking hurricane wouldn't surprise me.

I'm nit-picking, but the ocean doesn't just store heat energy from one year to the next. Seasonal processes take away heat along with currents and other processes. It doesn't matter if a hurricane touched that spot last year. It would have the same heat energy available this year regardless.

It's probably just climate change upping the odds of major events. But with satellites only having been available for a few decades, I wonder whether some of it can't be put down to improved observation methods.

[AubreyStorm]

Maybe turn NW?

[curtadams]

I'm probably the five thousandth person to say this but I was floored to see the Storm2k graphic of the NHC forecast. Cat 5 forecast three days in a row! I never thought I'd see that. I'm horrified for the islands too - nobody's built for a storm like this.

[AdamFirst]

[img]]

Maybe turn NW?

It's on track. NHC anticipates a WNW movement to begin today.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051338
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 28 20170905
132930 1540N 05702W 6969 03144 0034 +102 +044 201042 042 041 000 03
133000 1539N 05701W 6970 03144 0034 +105 +037 203042 043 040 000 00
133030 1538N 05700W 6969 03146 0036 +103 +047 209043 043 039 000 00
133100 1537N 05658W 6969 03149 0038 +103 +044 211043 043 037 001 00
133130 1535N 05657W 6971 03146 0034 +105 +034 213041 042 038 000 03
133200 1534N 05656W 6967 03152 0038 +105 +035 211040 041 036 000 00
133230 1534N 05656W 6967 03152 0052 +097 +049 210042 042 037 000 00
133300 1532N 05654W 6969 03156 0061 +090 +058 212041 043 035 000 03
133330 1531N 05652W 6971 03157 0063 +093 +052 207039 040 034 000 00
133400 1529N 05651W 6966 03163 0061 +095 +048 207041 041 034 000 00
133430 1528N 05650W 6970 03160 0061 +096 +046 208041 042 034 000 00
133500 1527N 05649W 6967 03166 0064 +095 +046 210041 041 034 000 00
133530 1526N 05648W 6970 03160 0066 +093 +046 212041 041 034 000 00
133600 1525N 05646W 6964 03167 0062 +097 +048 210042 042 034 000 03
133630 1525N 05644W 6971 03162 0060 +100 +050 202042 043 /// /// 03
133700 1527N 05644W 6963 03173 0060 +102 +042 200040 041 030 001 03
133730 1529N 05645W 6970 03161 0061 +097 +043 200040 040 032 001 00
133800 1531N 05645W 6969 03166 0067 +096 +043 201041 041 034 001 00
133830 1533N 05646W 6970 03163 0063 +097 +044 201042 043 037 000 00
133900 1535N 05646W 6968 03163 0060 +099 +043 198042 043 038 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

I'm probably the five thousandth person to say this but I was floored to see the Storm2k graphic of the NHC forecast. Cat 5 forecast three days in a row! I never thought I'd see that. I'm horrified for the islands too - nobody's built for a storm like this.

Made a copy, hopefully we don't see this very often.

[meriland29]

Oh my god, oh...my god. I am crying right now cause I just woke up and saw the storm is at 175 MPH... I feel...SO bad for those islands approaching right now (puts hands over mouth) I have no other words.. I can't believe that speed..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/stormtimelapse/status/905059751419138049

[ObsessedMiami]

Seems to me that the NHC would have to lay its cards down regarding the turn soon. SFL would have to gear up for shelters and emergency ops soon for a storm that the NHC says will have probably Tropical storm sustained winds in Miami beginning Friday 8 PM.

[GCANE]

Maybe turn NW?

This is about where she should be turning.

[MississippiWx]

I'm not sure but the current location of Irma might not even be the most favorable region in the Atlantic to support Cat5s. If we believe the models, the area near the Caribbean islands and South Florida has the best potential to support such intensity. So I think there is still a chance to see a CDG ring with Irma, or maybe close.

I believe this Atlantic region has a lot of untapped energy after all these years, thus a record-breaking hurricane wouldn't surprise me.

I'm nit-picking, but the ocean doesn't just store heat energy from one year to the next. Seasonal processes take away heat along with currents and other processes. It doesn't matter if a hurricane touched that spot last year. It would have the same heat energy available this year regardless.

It's probably just climate change upping the odds of major events. But with satellites only having been available for a few decades, I wonder whether some of it can't be put down to improved observation methods.

I know it's not the place to discuss climate change here, but there have been many other Cat 4-5 hurricanes in this area prior to this season. It's a prime location in the peak of the season. Isn't it amazing how something so destructive can be so beautiful?