ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

FL panhandle resident here, just north of Destin. How confident are we in IRMA making the hard north turn before slipping into the GOM? Track looks eerily similar to Kate and Georges.

The Panhandle hasn't really been in the story at all. I would feel confident that you are going to be OK, but remember -

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY, AND NOT INTENDED TO BE ADVICE FOR ANYONE.

Also, you should still have plenty of time to drive NORTH to move away from it if it enters the GoM if later models indicate that.

[KBBOCA]

I'm focusing my thoughts & prayers on the Leeward Islands today. Will try to post news & current info I happen to find. Mods, is there going to be an observations thread set up?

Praying all in the islands find a safe place of shelter.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905039554289082368

[tropicwatch]

Still just a tad south of Forecast track.

[meriland29]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ReaganMatt/status/905065483778576386

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051348
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 29 20170905
133930 1538N 05646W 6970 03158 0063 +095 +047 200041 042 039 001 03
134000 1540N 05646W 6969 03157 0060 +093 +050 196041 042 039 001 00
134030 1542N 05646W 6970 03158 0064 +092 +051 189042 043 041 000 00
134100 1544N 05646W 6970 03160 0060 +095 +051 188044 044 041 000 00
134130 1546N 05646W 6967 03160 0055 +098 +052 187045 045 042 000 03
134200 1548N 05647W 6970 03155 0056 +095 +051 187047 048 041 001 00
134230 1550N 05647W 6969 03157 0052 +099 +054 186049 050 042 000 00
134300 1553N 05647W 6969 03163 0061 +095 +048 183051 051 044 000 00
134330 1555N 05647W 6969 03157 0061 +093 +052 181051 052 044 000 00
134400 1557N 05647W 6970 03154 0060 +090 +058 183048 050 042 001 00
134430 1559N 05647W 6971 03147 0052 +093 +060 184048 050 046 000 00
134500 1601N 05647W 6963 03160 0050 +097 +053 182049 051 045 001 00
134530 1604N 05647W 6974 03152 0053 +096 +053 183051 051 046 001 00
134600 1606N 05648W 6969 03155 0054 +096 +054 187050 051 048 000 00
134630 1608N 05648W 6966 03155 0050 +097 +052 187051 051 049 001 00
134700 1610N 05648W 6971 03147 0049 +096 +056 184051 052 048 001 00
134730 1612N 05648W 6967 03150 0044 +095 +056 181053 053 047 000 00
134800 1615N 05648W 6970 03147 0044 +096 +055 180056 056 047 001 00
134830 1617N 05648W 6968 03151 0044 +100 +055 177056 056 049 000 00
134900 1619N 05649W 6967 03151 0043 +100 +056 174055 056 049 000 00
$$
;

[otterlyspicey]

Hello all. I am stunned by the meteorological beauty and strength of Irma. I am also terrified at what comes with that beauty and strength. I am posting to ask an opinion if anyone would be kind enough to offer theirs.

My step grandmother lives in Sarasota. She is trying to make the decision on if she should evacuate or stay put. My suggestion was to wait to see what the models say this afternoon...however I'm nervous waiting even that long. I don't want to suggest to her that she go through the rigorous evacuation process if she doesn't need to leave. But I'd never want her to stay and something happen. So I'm leaning towards suggesting she leave by Thursday because the storm is so strong, id hate for any west wobble to drastically change things.

Does anyone else have any opinions on why I should suggest her stay or leave?

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/905041026049609729

[Blown Away]

Irma making the WNW turn...

[Michele B]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.

[Patrick99]

There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?

[CrazyC83]

I'm probably the five thousandth person to say this but I was floored to see the Storm2k graphic of the NHC forecast. Cat 5 forecast three days in a row! I never thought I'd see that. I'm horrified for the islands too - nobody's built for a storm like this.

That is unlikely to happen, most likely it would weaken to cat 4 somewhere in there due to ERC's but it would not be surprising to see it at cat 5 more than once.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hello all. I am stunned by the meteorological beauty and strength of Irma. I am also terrified at what comes with that beauty and strength. I am posting to ask an opinion if anyone would be kind enough to offer theirs.

My step grandmother lives in Sarasota. She is trying to make the decision on if she should evacuate or stay put. My suggestion was to wait to see what the models say this afternoon...however I'm nervous waiting even that long. I don't want to suggest to her that she go through the rigorous evacuation process if she doesn't need to leave. But I'd never want her to stay and something happen. So I'm leaning towards suggesting she leave by Thursday because the storm is so strong, id hate for any west wobble to drastically change things.

Does anyone else have any opinions on why I should suggest her stay or leave?

Why not tell her to come up and visit you for a week or so, if the storm bypasses her area, you've had a nice visit for a week.

[tolakram]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL.

Please, let's stay calm. Everyone should have a plan and be ready to execute it.

[La Sirena]

 https://twitter.com/stormtimelapse/status/905059751419138049

I heard from friends still in the Keys that tourists are leaving today and resident evacs begin Wednesday. That is JUST THE KEYS. I don't know how they'd evac all of SFLA from east coast to west.

[KBBOCA]

Apologies if this list has already been posted... Seeing another storm added to this list of monsters is sobering:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905052619835457537

[GCANE]

No letting up yet on eyewall intensification.

[CrazyC83]

I'm nit-picking, but the ocean doesn't just store heat energy from one year to the next. Seasonal processes take away heat along with currents and other processes. It doesn't matter if a hurricane touched that spot last year. It would have the same heat energy available this year regardless.

It's probably just climate change upping the odds of major events. But with satellites only having been available for a few decades, I wonder whether some of it can't be put down to improved observation methods.

I know it's not the place to discuss climate change here, but there have been many other Cat 4-5 hurricanes in this area prior to this season. It's a prime location in the peak of the season. Isn't it amazing how something so destructive can be so beautiful?

Also before the satellite era we would never have known what extreme hurricanes may have been east of the islands. That area is largely devoid of ships (on the best days) so there were few observations.

[DelrayMorris]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.

It's not exactly as easy as one thinks to get out of the way.

[Exalt]

I'm assuming that this could likely stay strong if the center manages to stay off coast or restrengthen when it moves back onto water for a short time?