ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3861 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:00 am

Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?


Yes and no. In other words, if you don't follow the models then just pay attention to the NHC, they out perform individual models almost all the time. :)

Models will wind shield wiper back and forth narrowing down a solution. The further out in time the more inaccurate they are. Right now it's a little too soon to say for sure. One day could be east, the next one west.
7 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1115
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3862 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:00 am

otterlyspicey wrote:Hello all. I am stunned by the meteorological beauty and strength of Irma. I am also terrified at what comes with that beauty and strength. I am posting to ask an opinion if anyone would be kind enough to offer theirs.

My step grandmother lives in Sarasota. She is trying to make the decision on if she should evacuate or stay put. My suggestion was to wait to see what the models say this afternoon...however I'm nervous waiting even that long. I don't want to suggest to her that she go through the rigorous evacuation process if she doesn't need to leave. But I'd never want her to stay and something happen. So I'm leaning towards suggesting she leave by Thursday because the storm is so strong, id hate for any west wobble to drastically change things.

Does anyone else have any opinions on why I should suggest her stay or leave?


What are her accommodations? Does she have a fairly well-built house? Does she have any way to board it up? Is there anyone around she could go stay with (neighbors)? Is she able to care for herself, and what would she do if electricity was out for a week or 2?

Evacuating is difficult for anyone. Someone who is a "grandmother" might need to be looked after a little closer.

WHAT AM I SAYING?!?!?!? I AM A GRANDMOTHER!!! AND A GREAT-GRANDMOTHER!!!!!!!

lol
4 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3863 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:01 am

Just checked the 06z GFS. It does look as though it hits more the eastern part of FL and directly hits between GA and SC..which is different from 18z, 00z, etc..which has it hit pretty much Miami spot on. I am gonna need another couple cups of coffee before the 12z run to see if the 06z is predominant, a rogue model run, or if it will start trending east now. If Irma didn't have my full attention before (and I was on here religiously) she sure does now after seeing that crazy *** speed. I mean, look at this thing..jesus!


Image
1 likes   

User avatar
La Sirena
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Location: Formerly of the Keys, back home in East TN

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3864 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:03 am

DelrayMorris wrote:
Michele B wrote:
meriland29 wrote:The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.



"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.


All flights out of PBI are full for Wed/Thu/Fri, checking FLL now, but I expect the same... and there are no more reservations in any hotel (that isn't on either coast) until you get to Albany, Georgia.

What the hell do you want us to do? We might not have any CHOICE but to ride it out. The other coast of Florida isn't out of the woods yet. I resent the implication that we are idiots if we are forced to stay here... I'm terrified enough.

Any chance of heading toward southeast Alabama? It's far enough inland that you would likely be fine. I understand your stress right now. I'm hoping for the best for you.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Hurricane Irma,Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Helene

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3865 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:03 am

Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?


Yes, it is well within the realm of possibility. The 06z GFS, GEFS and NAVGEM all shifted east. The GEFS mean keeps the center just off the coast with the western eyewall grazing FL and the center heading for a landfall in Myrtle Beach, SC. The NAVGEM still hits South Florida but shifted east a bit. It all depends on the "thumb ridge" and how quickly that breaks down. The reason for the change in the 06z GFS is it dives energy in from the Midwest quicker and stronger which breaks the ridging down, creates a weakness and allows Irma to move north faster.
1 likes   

User avatar
petit_bois
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 227
Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:04 pm
Location: Petit Bois Island Mississippi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3866 Postby petit_bois » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:04 am

Curious where the Pro Met tread went... and where's Ort when we need him? :double:
1 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Major Hurricane Hit Capital!
Camille (200+winds), Frederic, Goerges, Katrina... and many many more.

Disclaimer: I'm likely the smartest guy here... but I have no idea where a tropical cyclone will go. I suggest you take my opinion as a grain of salt. I suggest you look to the National Hurricane Center for accurate info.

NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3867 Postby NJWxHurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:04 am

wnw movement last few frames
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3868 Postby curtadams » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:05 am

Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?

Models aren't exact. Even the NHC forecast, the best "model" there is, has a five-day forecast error of 250 miles. That's more than the width of the peninsula. So even now, it's quite plausible that Irma and her eyewall could completely miss SFL to either side. Of course anybody there MUST be preparing because a direct strike is quite likely too.
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3869 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:05 am

DelrayMorris wrote:
Michele B wrote:
meriland29 wrote:The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.



"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.


All flights out of PBI are full for Wed/Thu/Fri, checking FLL now, but I expect the same... and there are no more reservations in any hotel (that isn't on either coast) until you get to Albany, Georgia.

What the hell do you want us to do? We might not have any CHOICE but to ride it out. The other coast of Florida isn't out of the woods yet. I resent the implication that we are idiots if we are forced to stay here... I'm terrified enough.


That's..not what I meant at all. If you can't, literally, then you can't but at least you would if you could or try. I am talking about and to the people that do or can, wherever that may be, that choose not to cause they don't think the storm is gonna be a big deal.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3870 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:07 am

Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?


The 6z GFS did shift east, however it still shows a landfall in Southern Florida. The approach of Irma to S.Fla is one that 30-40 miles could make the difference between a SW Fl landfall and a SE Fl landfall(assuming there is a Fla landfall)
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3871 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:08 am

Is not too often we see this in the Atlantic Basin.

Image
6 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3872 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:09 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 051359
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 30 20170905
134930 1622N 05649W 6968 03150 0042 +098 +053 174056 056 048 001 00
135000 1624N 05649W 6970 03146 0039 +100 +049 171055 056 048 000 00
135030 1626N 05649W 6968 03144 0037 +100 +053 172057 057 047 001 00
135100 1628N 05649W 6967 03150 0041 +098 +053 172057 058 048 000 00
135130 1631N 05649W 6974 03137 0045 +091 +058 173058 059 047 000 00
135200 1633N 05649W 6968 03143 0043 +092 +055 171059 060 047 001 03
135230 1635N 05650W 6970 03139 0040 +093 +046 165059 059 048 000 00
135300 1637N 05650W 6966 03144 0046 +088 +053 166059 060 048 000 00
135330 1640N 05650W 6970 03135 0046 +085 +064 163061 064 047 000 00
135400 1642N 05650W 6965 03143 //// +068 //// 165066 067 047 002 01
135430 1644N 05650W 6964 03140 //// +065 //// 166068 070 047 003 01
135500 1647N 05650W 6975 03129 0057 +074 //// 163070 072 047 007 01
135530 1649N 05650W 6968 03138 0050 +086 //// 155063 070 048 006 01
135600 1651N 05651W 6970 03134 0062 +077 //// 158061 064 046 005 01
135630 1654N 05651W 6970 03134 //// +081 //// 157061 062 044 004 01
135700 1656N 05651W 6964 03140 0039 +086 +076 155061 062 044 002 00
135730 1658N 05651W 6971 03131 0032 +092 +076 155060 061 045 003 00
135800 1700N 05651W 6971 03133 0035 +089 +072 154060 061 046 002 00
135830 1702N 05651W 6967 03137 0028 +095 +071 154062 063 046 002 00
135900 1705N 05651W 6970 03132 0033 +091 +069 152061 061 048 001 00
$$
;
0 likes   

NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3873 Postby NJWxHurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:10 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?


The 6z GFS did shift east, however it still shows a landfall in Southern Florida. The approach of Irma to S.Fla is one that 30-40 miles could make the difference between a SW Fl landfall and a SE Fl landfall(assuming there is a Fla landfall)

then we watch the carolinas
1 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3380
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3874 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:11 am

Most of the models shifted somewhat west, not east, including the ECMWF. The 06z GFS was the only one that shifted slightly east, as far as I can tell. Haven't looked at all of them very closely though yet this AM.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3875 Postby NJWxHurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Most of the models shifted somewhat west, not east, including the ECMWF. The 06z GFS was the only one that shifted slightly east, as far as I can tell. Haven't looked at all of them very closely though yet this AM.

was way more than the gfs sir
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3876 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 051408
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 31 20170905
135930 1707N 05652W 6970 03132 0037 +087 +067 146061 062 048 001 00
140000 1709N 05652W 6964 03135 0037 +085 +067 146065 067 046 003 00
140030 1711N 05652W 6970 03134 0037 +088 +067 148064 065 047 002 00
140100 1714N 05652W 6971 03129 0037 +085 +071 146065 067 045 004 01
140130 1716N 05652W 6966 03138 //// +081 //// 146065 067 045 004 01
140200 1718N 05652W 6975 03126 0055 +079 //// 143066 069 044 005 01
140230 1720N 05652W 6972 03129 0058 +070 //// 139054 061 045 004 01
140300 1722N 05653W 6968 03137 0048 +080 +078 140055 056 045 002 01
140330 1725N 05653W 6971 03137 0050 +079 +077 138058 058 044 002 05
140400 1727N 05653W 6967 03144 0049 +086 +072 135059 060 046 000 00
140430 1729N 05653W 6972 03138 0051 +085 +051 129063 065 047 001 00
140500 1731N 05653W 6969 03144 0055 +083 +063 129064 065 047 001 00
140530 1733N 05653W 6970 03144 0055 +084 +066 127064 065 047 001 00
140600 1735N 05653W 6970 03145 0058 +085 +055 123067 068 045 001 00
140630 1737N 05654W 6969 03150 0053 +092 +042 125065 068 045 001 00
140700 1739N 05654W 6967 03154 0051 +095 +048 129067 068 044 001 00
140730 1741N 05654W 6969 03153 0062 +087 +057 129063 067 044 007 00
140800 1743N 05654W 6967 03155 0073 +078 +059 129064 064 042 008 00
140830 1745N 05654W 6975 03149 0062 +091 +057 124060 063 043 006 00
140900 1748N 05654W 6967 03159 0065 +088 +058 123059 060 041 005 00
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3877 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 am

meriland29 wrote:
DelrayMorris wrote:
Michele B wrote:

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.


All flights out of PBI are full for Wed/Thu/Fri, checking FLL now, but I expect the same... and there are no more reservations in any hotel (that isn't on either coast) until you get to Albany, Georgia.

What the hell do you want us to do? We might not have any CHOICE but to ride it out. The other coast of Florida isn't out of the woods yet. I resent the implication that we are idiots if we are forced to stay here... I'm terrified enough.


That's..not what I meant at all. If you can't, literally, then you can't but at least you would if you could or try. I am talking about and to the people that do or can, wherever that may be, that choose not to cause they don't think the storm is gonna be a big deal.



Calm down folks. Mark is right...breathe, make sure you are ready, stay vigilant and watch. Models change. This is an everchanging situation.
4 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3878 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 am

Emergency management services in Fla are top notch. By tomorrow morning they will be in high gear ( if not sooner). I'm sure evacuation centers are planning to open as we speak all up and down the peninsula. Stay calm and decide on what you are going to do TODAY, don't wait. If you can afford to leave, go visit family or friends for a week or so in other parts of the country. If you can't afford that, like I said, Fla is top notch when it comes to shelters. Just don't wait until Friday to leave on the highways. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you further south.
1 likes   

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3879 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:13 am

tolakram wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?


Yes and no. In other words, if you don't follow the models then just pay attention to the NHC, they out perform individual models almost all the time. :)

Models will wind shield wiper back and forth narrowing down a solution. The further out in time the more inaccurate they are. Right now it's a little too soon to say for sure. One day could be east, the next one west.


Exactly. Quit focusing on one model or another and from run to run people. There is wide and general consensus on a hit on Florida. The average or blend being up the middle of the state. Until or unless that blend changes. Get prepared
2 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3880 Postby curtadams » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:13 am

La Sirena wrote:[
Any chance of heading toward southeast Alabama? It's far enough inland that you would likely be fine.

Dothan would be a perfectly reasonable place to ride out Irma (I'm from there originally and am visiting now) but it's just not big enough to make a big difference. It's got 70,000 people and maybe a few thousand hotel rooms tops. It can't make a substantial dent in 12 million Floridians. The reality is that the overwhelming majority of Floridians have to ride this out in Florida (although not necessarily at their own homes) because there's no way to get them all out and no place for them to go. There's literally not enough hotel rooms in the entire country. Remember 100 people died in the Houston evacuation for Rita, and that's without the hurricane coming in on hundreds of thousands stuck on the freeways.

edit: and Floridians don't have to panic. Even with this storm, if you're in a sturdy building away from the coast and not in a floodplain you should be fine.
Last edited by curtadams on Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests