ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Most of the models shifted somewhat west, not east, including the ECMWF. The 06z GFS was the only one that shifted slightly east, as far as I can tell. Haven't looked at all of them very closely though yet this AM.

was way more than the gfs sir

Sorry, should have specified the global models... yea, the 12z guidance definitely shifted east somewhat. Just shows all possibilities are on the table.

[NJWxHurricane]

hopefully this is the beginning of an east trend

[facemane]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

Katrina reached Max winds of 175. Rita 180,and Wilma 185 in 2005. Irma is strong,but hasn't set a wind speed record in the Atlantic basin yet.

[Ken711]

There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?

The 6z GFS did shift east, however it still shows a landfall in Southern Florida. The approach of Irma to S.Fla is one that 30-40 miles could make the difference between a SW Fl landfall and a SE Fl landfall(assuming there is a Fla landfall)

then we watch the carolinas

Landfall in the Carolinas is still a very strong possibility as the Euro could follow the other models shifting east. I think they have overdone the ridge.

[MississippiWx]

Most of the models shifted somewhat west, not east, including the ECMWF. The 06z GFS was the only one that shifted slightly east, as far as I can tell. Haven't looked at all of them very closely though yet this AM.

was way more than the gfs sir

Sorry, should have specified the global models... yea, the 12z guidance definitely shifted east somewhat. Just shows all possibilities are on the table.

Nothing has shifted east today so far except statistical models and the 6z GFS. Statistical models are basically useless. Watch the main global models come out at 12z for trends.

[txwatcher91]

Most of the models shifted somewhat west, not east, including the ECMWF. The 06z GFS was the only one that shifted slightly east, as far as I can tell. Haven't looked at all of them very closely though yet this AM.

Yes, the 00z runs did go west but the 06z runs went east. We will need to watch the 12z runs closely to see what trends there may be and ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA should be prepared for hurricane force winds and a possible cat 4/5 landfall or brush along the east coast. Either solution would bring hurricane force and higher winds to a large part of the state.

[Tireman4]

There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?

Yes and no. In other words, if you don't follow the models then just pay attention to the NHC, they out perform individual models almost all the time.

Models will wind shield wiper back and forth narrowing down a solution. The further out in time the more inaccurate they are. Right now it's a little too soon to say for sure. One day could be east, the next one west.

Exactly. Quit focusing on one model or another and from run to run people. There is wide and general consensus on a hit on Florida. The average or blend being up the middle of the state. Until or unless that blend changes. Get prepared

Yes. Yes. Yes..and wait..yes....

[ava_ati]

The fact that NHC predicts it will even intensify still is just...wow. If this thing hits the US at this strength, and I would be surprised if it did hold out that long (but apparently it may)I....all I can say is DO NOT RIDE IT OUT. I have never, ever seen a storm reach that sort of intensity in my entire life, not even rogue in the Atlantic. Last night it was at 140, I thought, maybe 150...175?! That is a 35mph jump OVERNIGHT.

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL.

Please, let's stay calm. Everyone should have a plan and be ready to execute it.

I disagree with the last part, the plans should already be in place and you should be executing them now. We just booked a hotel in Atlanta and are starting to board up our house... and I live in Jacksonville.

[Raebie]

Just checked the 06z GFS. It does look as though it hits more the eastern part of FL and directly hits between GA and SC..which is different from 18z, 00z, etc..which has it hit pretty much Miami spot on. I am gonna need another couple cups of coffee before the 12z run to see if the 06z is predominant, a rogue model run, or if it will start trending east now. If Irma didn't have my full attention before (and I was on here religiously) she sure does now after seeing that crazy *** speed. I mean, look at this thing..jesus!

"Rogue"? We're 5-6 days out and the distance between runs isn't all that great. There are going to be fluctuations right up until landfall, although they should lessen. And remember, a small distance can make a great deal of difference for Florida.

[NJWxHurricane]

was way more than the gfs sir

Sorry, should have specified the global models... yea, the 12z guidance definitely shifted east somewhat. Just shows all possibilities are on the table.

Nothing has shifted east today so far except statistical models and the 6z GFS. Statistical models are basically useless. Watch the main global models come out at 12z for trends.

and the navgem

[Tinman]

Emergency management services in Fla are top notch. By tomorrow morning they will be in high gear ( if not sooner). I'm sure evacuation centers are planning to open as we speak all up and down the peninsula. Stay calm and decide on what you are going to do TODAY, don't wait. If you can afford to leave, go visit family or friends for a week or so in other parts of the country. If you can't afford that, like I said, Fla is top notch when it comes to shelters. Just don't wait until Friday to leave on the highways. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you further south.

From someone who did that for 36 years, trust me, they meeting this morning and getting things started. There is a ton of stuff to do and it takes a few days to get it all done.

[EquusStorm]

Just woke up to this. A helpless, sinking feeling for the northern Lesser Antilles right now. Expected a category five at some point but not an impact this strong this early. Really hoping for a big northward wobble, but it's rapidly running out of time to do that, and the ridging will probably force it to plow through the islands. Just an awful, awful situation all around.

[flamingosun]

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[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wonder if another EWRC is about to start, cloudtops have warmed considerably since sunrise

[CrazyC83]

hopefully this is the beginning of an east trend

That would be terrible news for the Bahamas and for those up the coast from Savannah to Cape Hatteras.

[caneman]

There was some scuttlebutt on the model thread about models trending east and possibly just missing Florida.....I don't follow the models so closely, any possibility to this?

Models aren't exact. Even the NHC forecast, the best "model" there is, has a five-day forecast error of 250 miles. That's more than the width of the peninsula. So even now, it's quite plausible that Irma and her eyewall could completely miss SFL to either side. Of course anybody there MUST be preparing because a direct strike is quite likely too.

The 5 day margin of era on this storm has been unusually low at I believe 125 mile error so far.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051418
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 32 20170905
140930 1750N 05654W 6971 03156 0053 +099 +044 123060 061 041 002 00
141000 1752N 05655W 6968 03160 0055 +100 +034 125060 061 039 001 00
141030 1754N 05655W 6966 03162 0057 +098 +035 128061 062 040 002 00
141100 1756N 05655W 6972 03156 0064 +094 +050 125061 062 041 002 00
141130 1758N 05655W 6963 03167 0065 +092 +052 127061 062 042 003 03
141200 1800N 05656W 6967 03165 0066 +093 +062 126061 062 /// /// 03
141230 1800N 05658W 6968 03164 0062 +095 +056 122056 060 /// /// 03
141300 1759N 05659W 6972 03159 0062 +096 +038 122054 055 042 001 00
141330 1758N 05700W 6968 03156 0057 +097 +037 120058 060 041 001 00
141400 1756N 05702W 6973 03151 0060 +093 +044 122060 062 040 001 00
141430 1755N 05703W 6970 03155 0055 +098 +035 123055 057 040 000 00
141500 1754N 05704W 6966 03162 0050 +104 +026 123057 060 043 001 00
141530 1752N 05706W 6969 03155 0051 +101 +030 124063 064 044 000 03
141600 1751N 05707W 6967 03155 0050 +098 +046 123063 064 044 001 00
141630 1750N 05708W 6967 03153 0051 +095 +043 122061 064 045 000 00
141700 1748N 05710W 6968 03150 0046 +097 +045 122061 062 048 001 00
141730 1747N 05711W 6967 03149 0046 +095 +058 126062 064 049 001 00
141800 1746N 05712W 6968 03145 0048 +090 +060 127065 067 051 001 00
141830 1745N 05714W 6970 03143 0051 +089 +061 127067 069 050 001 00
141900 1743N 05715W 6968 03144 0054 +083 +077 126065 066 051 003 00
$$
;

[EyELeSs1]

Anguilla, Antigua, Barbuda and Anedega look to get the worst of this. Do we have any members on those islands?

Checking in from Antigua. Needless to say, we are watching every wobble from here on.

[Exalt]

Wonder if another EWRC is about to start, cloudtops have warmed considerably since sunrise

Probably just dinural effects. I don't see the eye contracting much. At this point you really don't want one, wind fields are already as big as Florida, imagine the widespread devastation.

On another hand, is it really just the question of how much more this can intensify? Could this hit the 200mph mark?

[La Sirena]

[
Any chance of heading toward southeast Alabama? It's far enough inland that you would likely be fine.

Dothan would be a perfectly reasonable place to ride out Irma (I'm from there originally and am visiting now) but it's just not big enough to make a big difference. It's got 70,000 people and maybe a few thousand hotel rooms tops. It can't make a substantial dent in 12 million Floridians. The reality is that the overwhelming majority of Floridians have to ride this out in Florida (although not necessarily at their own homes) because there's no way to get them all out and no place for them to go. There's literally not enough hotel rooms in the entire country. Remember 100 people died in the Houston evacuation for Rita, and that's without the hurricane coming in on hundreds of thousands stuck on the freeways.

edit: and Floridians don't have to panic. Even with this storm, if you're in a sturdy building away from the coast and not in a floodplain you should be fine.

It's where I live now lol! Certainly not suggesting that millions of people come to Dothan! Just trying to offer an option for one person. When we lived in the lower Keys our plan was to find a hotel on the mainland for a bit as my husband was essential personnel and couldn't be very far away. I see now our hotel plan would probably have never worked. I couldn't have just jumped a flight out either as we have 2 large German Shepherds.

Our former neighbors in the Keys (2 families) are planning on making a very long journey out of there to stay with us. Just offering a suggestion for someone who's feeling the pressure of evacuation.