ATL: IRMA - Models

[Ken711]

I don't think that we'll really know the US landfall solution until after Wed. Probably more like Thursday when the synoptic features are more in place. The break in the ridge and true timing of the trough are going to matter right when the angle of approach to the FL peninsula are most critical. We're getting down the most critical op runs and ensembles. UKMET is curious and I can't discount it given the history with this storm have to see if the EC ensembles shift.

If you compare last night's 0z run of the UKMET to yesterday's 12z run the UKMET actually shifted west..it has been slowly shifting west.

UKMET is the only one showing such a southerly route through Cuba.

[MatthewsRevenge]

00Z UKMET is just east of Florida:

That has to be an error. How can it go from Cuba to suddenly make a VERY sharp NE turn? All these models and their levels of uncertainty with this storm. I've never seen anything like it.

[txwatcher91]

Wonder what UKMet is seeing what some other models aren't? It could be because this system is so complex and is constantly wobbling that any direction could be right.

It has had a south bias with Irma but the hard turn north is plausible. Right now all of South Florida needs to be on high alert and ready for the worst, this hurricane is no joke and has a very large wind field that will only grow with time as it nears the Bahamas and the HP to the north creates a stronger pressure gradient.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Wonder what UKMet is seeing what some other models aren't? It could be because this system is so complex and is constantly wobbling that any direction could be right.

It has had a south bias with Irma but the hard turn north is plausible. Right now all of South Florida needs to be on high alert and ready for the worst, this hurricane is no joke and has a very large wind field that will only grow with time as it nears the Bahamas and the HP to the north creates a stronger pressure gradient.

Right. Florida definitely is gonna get something out of this. Hope everyone is safe over there.

[chris_fit]

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[FixySLN]

Wonder what UKMet is seeing what some other models aren't? It could be because this system is so complex and is constantly wobbling that any direction could be right.

It has had a south bias with Irma but the hard turn north is plausible. Right now all of South Florida needs to be on high alert and ready for the worst, this hurricane is no joke and has a very large wind field that will only grow with time as it nears the Bahamas and the HP to the north creates a stronger pressure gradient.

It's the first week of September. This whole week is always a paradox when there are storms south of Florida. Historically, these systems primarily turn north either right before or right after landfall. In the case they don't, they normally end up in the gulf. It's turning North LATE which worries me the most.

[ronjon]

06z NAVGEM - marathon to east Tampa.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090506&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=0

[tolakram]

00Z UKMET is just east of Florida:

[im g]https://s26.postimg.org/tsi1w1sd5/ukm2.2017091200.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentr.png[/img]

That has to be an error. How can it go from Cuba to suddenly make a VERY sharp NE turn? All these models and their levels of uncertainty with this storm. I've never seen anything like it.

Happens in this area all the time. Their levels of uncertainty are actually pretty small, historically, the problem is when 50 miles makes all the difference in the world. We are just about 5 days from Florida so moving forward the track swings should start to lessen some. I wish I had a goo graphic to show the blend of only the quality models. I would put

Euro 40%, UKMET 30%, GFS 30% of the blend.

[adam0983]

Based on the models now what should palm beach, dade and broward county expect from Hurricane Irma.

[tolakram]

Based on the models now what should palm beach, dads and broward expect from Hurricane Irma.

Please don't ask this, there is no answer. Based on model runs you can expect anything from a stiff breeze to category 4 wind gusts. DO NOT BASE DECISIONS ON MODELS.

[MatthewsRevenge]

00Z UKMET is just east of Florida:

[im g]https://s26.postimg.org/tsi1w1sd5/ukm2.2017091200.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentr.png[/img]

That has to be an error. How can it go from Cuba to suddenly make a VERY sharp NE turn? All these models and their levels of uncertainty with this storm. I've never seen anything like it.

Happens in this area all the time. Their levels of uncertainty are actually pretty small, historically, the problem is when 50 miles makes all the difference in the world. We are just about 5 days from Florida so moving forward the track swings should start to lessen some. I wish I had a goo graphic to show the blend of only the quality models. I would put

Euro 40%, UKMET 30%, GFS 30% of the blend.

Oh OK. Guess we have to wait and see where Irma takes herself then. This is gonna be a doozy lol I'm guessing the invests to the left and right of Irma are gonna make a difference (as well as a possible trough) into where Irma eventually heads.

[ronjon]

00Z UKMET is just east of Florida:

[im g]https://s26.postimg.org/tsi1w1sd5/ukm2.2017091200.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentr.png[/img]

That has to be an error. How can it go from Cuba to suddenly make a VERY sharp NE turn? All these models and their levels of uncertainty with this storm. I've never seen anything like it.

Happens in this area all the time. Their levels of uncertainty are actually pretty small, historically, the problem is when 50 miles makes all the difference in the world. We are just about 5 days from Florida so moving forward the track swings should start to lessen some. I wish I had a goo graphic to show the blend of only the quality models. I would put

Euro 40%, UKMET 30%, GFS 30% of the blend.

That's not far off the TVCN consensus - which also includes COAMPS and HWRF. Not sure what GHMI is though.

TVCN / TVCE / TVCA Variable Consensus of AVNI, CTCI, EGRI, EMXI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts

[Voltron]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/stat ... 25/photo/1

[Voltron]

Interesting analysis, check out this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/stat ... 25/photo/1

[Frank P]

06z NAVGEM - marathon to east Tampa.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090506&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=0

shift east

[Ken711]

Does the NHC even consider the CMC in the model blend forecast? It's shows a GOM track.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Meanwhile, the Northern Leewards are gonna get a hit out of Irma even if the eye does what the forecast indicates.

[chris_fit]

I am noticing some eastward trends in the 6z and 12z suites.... Hopefully it lasts for Tampa's sake!

[Voltron]

Interesting analysis, check out this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/stat ... 25/photo/1

Very interestinf

[NJWxHurricane]

Does the NHC even consider the CMC in the model blend forecast? It's shows a GOM track.

Cmc is not a good model to be using during the tropical season