ATL: IRMA - Models

[ronjon]

Unfortunately that shortwave is diving south from Alabama -Georgia/SC/NE FL might be the resulting landfall.

[Pughetime12]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

You sure about that?

SC...goodbye to my house in Mt. Pleasant.

[Raebie]

Unless it starts moving east soon, Savannah is gonna take it on the chin.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[fig]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

[plasticup]

905 mb?! Rofl that's disgusting. This is a generational storm. Wherever it ends up, people are going to define life as pre- and post-Irma.

[Noles2016]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

Because the Euro doesn't show it...

[AutoPenalti]

It only takes a tiny wobble for it to come ashore.

[FixySLN]

Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.

Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.

I still don't think it can go northeast. It's going to have to eventually come in with the pattern the models are showing and have been for a week. It's possible, but it's a small possibility compared to a North/NNW move later in my opinion.

Man, that First week in September trend is coming close and closer to fruition.

[meriland29]

I really dislike that Jose is right behind like that...

[SFLcane]

No signficant shifts on the 12z its about identical as the 06z. It will be hard not to get impacts considering how large Irma is expected to be at the time it nears Florida.

[plasticup]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

Because the average NHC forecast error at 5 days is 250 miles. You are talking about 6 and 7 days out - even when the models are consistent, they are rarely reliable enough to give a meaningful forecast

[La Sirena]

Unless it starts moving east soon, Savannah is gonna take it on the chin.

This run has been slightly Matthew-esque.

[Siker]

UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96

What the helllll, 915 on that product is probably <905 in reality.

[cjrciadt]

Wow sub 910mb due west of me!! Matthew beach erosion will be a low tide compared to this!

[MatthewsRevenge]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

NHC has always said to focus on the three-day projection. It's still too far to speculate where in the states Irma can hit. As Levi Cowan said, the options are all open.

[Steve]

Looks to be moving in close on the GA Coast at 150 hours. So that would be next Monday around noon if the GFS Verifies. We'll see if it straddles the coast or moves in. Very hard to hit GA with a major from the SSE, but as the NHC said in their last discussion, it's now the strongest system ever outside of the Caribbean or Gulf in the Atlantic basin. So we're not completely dealing with the known here.

[AxaltaRacing24]

No signficant shifts on the 12z its about identical as the 06z. It will be hard not to get impacts considering how large Irma is expected to be at the time it nears Florida.

The east coast would still get pounded by the eyewall.

[SFLcane]

UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96

Wow! Thats insane right there

[jdjaguar]

Hour 144 on the current GFS

Monday 9/11

Pressure 911

offshore Jax Beach

are you kidding me?