ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4081 Postby kaykayjs » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:48 am

First post here... So so sad and concerned for the islands right now and then South Florida.

First time home owner in Orlando freaking out (last year our backyard almost flooded with Matthew) about getting plylox and plywood and getting my fiance's family out of South Florida. Prayers being said for the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4082 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:50 am

No just No! :double: This has become Haiyan dropped into the Atlantic!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4083 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:51 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Why is the SFMR winds so much higher than FL all of a sudden? I'd expect that in a pinhole eye storm but not for a large eye storm.


they're legit winds. Storms is intensifying as per the pressure falls
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4084 Postby Langinbang187 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:51 am

znel52 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Probably the best satellite presentation I've ever seen of an Atlantic storm. Image is not current.

Image


I'd give it to Gilbert but this is right there with it. Unbelievable!


Wilma & her pinhole will always be my number 1. This is probably top 5 though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4085 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:52 am

cjrciadt wrote:No just No! :double: This has become Haiyan dropped into the Atlantic!!

In German the meaning of the name Irma is: Universal, from the Old German 'irmin'. War goddess.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4086 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:52 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Why is the SFMR winds so much higher than FL all of a sudden? I'd expect that in a pinhole eye storm but not for a large eye storm.

You can get vorts winding around the eye that are crazy in intensity, like Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#4087 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:53 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 051648
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 47 20170905
163930 1651N 05858W 6967 02490 9249 +167 +130 327016 018 /// /// 03
164000 1653N 05859W 6963 02491 9236 +177 +129 000016 019 032 001 00
164030 1654N 05900W 6967 02476 9226 +185 +116 021029 036 048 001 00
164100 1655N 05901W 6967 02484 9238 +180 +107 026053 063 061 002 00
164130 1656N 05902W 6966 02499 9256 +173 +109 027072 080 088 003 03
164200 1657N 05903W 6978 02508 9294 +159 +115 030095 104 124 000 03
164230 1658N 05904W 6954 02557 9330 +138 +128 032121 126 133 000 05
164300 1659N 05905W 6988 02561 //// +114 //// 029133 135 138 000 05
164330 1700N 05906W 6961 02625 9452 +121 //// 031132 134 143 015 05
164400 1701N 05906W 6984 02631 9494 +122 +122 035139 143 143 040 03
164430 1702N 05907W 6972 02687 9544 +110 +110 037144 148 151 033 03
164500 1702N 05908W 6965 02718 9580 +097 +097 039145 148 120 024 00
164530 1703N 05909W 6969 02735 9609 +097 +097 039140 143 117 022 00
164600 1704N 05910W 6972 02778 //// +090 //// 040137 140 112 010 01
164630 1705N 05910W 6965 02812 9667 +100 //// 043133 134 108 002 01
164700 1706N 05911W 6967 02835 9683 +105 +103 048132 133 098 007 00
164730 1707N 05912W 6971 02847 9699 +108 +104 052127 132 096 011 00
164800 1708N 05913W 6972 02858 9726 +104 +104 056122 126 097 012 00
164830 1710N 05915W 6968 02884 9742 +106 +106 063122 123 091 010 00
164900 1711N 05916W 6967 02907 9777 +104 //// 064122 124 089 006 01
$$

148 kt FL, 151 kt SFMR (flagged though, as all the big ones are) on other side of storm. Pressure 923mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4088 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:53 am

Tonight's model runs will be important to see if they establish an east trend...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4089 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:53 am

Okay...so it seems a lot of people are fearing they will have to evacuate to a further distance than usual because they are concerned of a Harvey-type inland flooding scenario. I'm not sure how worried you should really be like this and here's why:

1. Harvey parked over Texas for 5 days. Unless Irma's going to be hovering over one location for that long I doubt the rainfall totals will be comparable.
2. As someone who has been through a ton of freshwater flooding, and someone who went to Galveston right after Ike, there really is no comparison between freshwater flooding and storm surge. Unless you live right next to a river or on a mountainside, inland flooding moves a lot more slowly and with less power behind it. As long as you don't venture outside into the floodwaters with a car or on foot you generally can stay safe on upper floor levels. So if you have to choose between surge and inland flooding, choose inland flooding. You might not be able to evacuate away from the path of all impacts.
3. Houston just is uniquely vulnerable to flooding. My neighborhood there floods several times a year due to its unfortunate combination of impermeable soil, countless bayous, and pavement. If you avoid regions like that it won't be as bad.

As far as the fight over whether we can call Irma beautiful or not...
"She's beauty, she's grace; she'll throw a tree in your face."
...as in,
Sometimes you need to use a bit of humor to regain your composure so you can finish preparing.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4090 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:53 am

Vdogg wrote:
MaineWeatherNut wrote:
Vdogg wrote:No, it's not. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide at that point with Florida in the middle. If the 12z 's continue the eastward shift that the 6z's started this morning, the portion of the cone that is in the gulf now will be mostly gone by the 5pm update.


The Cone has nothing to do with Model runs. It has to do with the Official NHC Forecast track and then the cone is decided based on the amount of miles error there historically has been at each forecast point. So the only way the Cone will move out of the GoM is if the NHC moves their forecast.

If the NHC does not use the models to help determine their track, then why do they talk about the models in their forecast discussions? This makes no sense.


I don't think it's that they don't use the models. I think it's just that they are more conservative in what they tell the public, since the models do tend to swing a lot. They take a more measured stance when interpreting the models than the average person might....witness what we're seeing the boards here!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4091 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:55 am

Winds look to be up to 160 kt now. This is not unlike Andrew...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4092 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:55 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:The panic in S Fla on Wednesday-Thursday (ish) is going to be extreme if something doesn't knock Irma down soon. Evacuation will soon be an impossibility for most people.


So when does Miami Dade and Broward begin the Emergency Operations centers and announce evacuation schedules?


Local stations will be telling it non-stop, I suspect.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4093 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:57 am

Shuriken wrote:If the ocean heat content under Iram presently supports a top-ended intensity of 180mph, then the higher heat content west of the storm does not suggest weakening is in the future. If the storm hits a big, mountainous island, it will weaken. If it runs into shear, it will weaken. But on the forecast track they're projecting, there is no logical reason for it to weaken in the next 24hours.


The NHC is the best there is at this. Intensity forecasts are tricky at best but unless you have actual information I suggest you don't know reasons, rather than there are no reasons. What is the 5 day shear forecast? What are some of the best intensity models saying?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4094 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:57 am

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Okay...so it seems a lot of people are fearing they will have to evacuate to a further distance than usual because they are concerned of a Harvey-type inland flooding scenario. I'm not sure how worried you should really be like this and here's why:

1. Harvey parked over Texas for 5 days. Unless Irma's going to be hovering over one location for that long I doubt the rainfall totals will be comparable.
2. As someone who has been through a ton of freshwater flooding, and someone who went to Galveston right after Ike, there really is no comparison between freshwater flooding and storm surge. Unless you live right next to a river or on a mountainside, inland flooding moves a lot more slowly and with less power behind it. As long as you don't venture outside into the floodwaters with a car or on foot you generally can stay safe on upper floor levels. So if you have to choose between surge and inland flooding, choose inland flooding. You might not be able to evacuate away from the path of all impacts.
3. Houston just is uniquely vulnerable to flooding. My neighborhood there floods several times a year due to its unfortunate combination of impermeable soil, countless bayous, and pavement. If you avoid regions like that it won't be as bad.

As far as the fight over whether we can call Irma beautiful or not...
"She's beauty, she's grace; she'll throw a tree in your face."
...as in,
Sometimes you need to use a bit of humor to regain your composure so you can finish preparing.


You cannot compare Harvey to Irma. The nature of the threat is completely different.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4095 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:57 am

Shuriken wrote:"...fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place...." (The NHC, as its forecast slowly bleeds off strength from Irma 180>175>etc. prior to passage north of Puerto Rico)

-- This makes absolutely no sense to me. They're not predicting an increase in shear or other mitigating factor, and the Virgin Islands present no disruptive profile to the wind. So, why expect weakening?

Irma is now a steady-state, top-ended hurricane with an almost annular-looking core. Allen, David, Mitch, and Isabel showed that such storms can and do supercruise at cat-5 until they approach land (or, in the case of Isabel, plow through howling shear).


It's not an appreciable amount of weakening. And only as long as it take to complete the EWRC. After that, the storm strengthens again to higher than it was before. I suppose that's kind of something we don't really understand about the full purpose of the EWRC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4096 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:58 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4097 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:59 am

Raebie wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Okay...so it seems a lot of people are fearing they will have to evacuate to a further distance than usual because they are concerned of a Harvey-type inland flooding scenario. I'm not sure how worried you should really be like this and here's why:

1. Harvey parked over Texas for 5 days. Unless Irma's going to be hovering over one location for that long I doubt the rainfall totals will be comparable.
2. As someone who has been through a ton of freshwater flooding, and someone who went to Galveston right after Ike, there really is no comparison between freshwater flooding and storm surge. Unless you live right next to a river or on a mountainside, inland flooding moves a lot more slowly and with less power behind it. As long as you don't venture outside into the floodwaters with a car or on foot you generally can stay safe on upper floor levels. So if you have to choose between surge and inland flooding, choose inland flooding. You might not be able to evacuate away from the path of all impacts.
3. Houston just is uniquely vulnerable to flooding. My neighborhood there floods several times a year due to its unfortunate combination of impermeable soil, countless bayous, and pavement. If you avoid regions like that it won't be as bad.

As far as the fight over whether we can call Irma beautiful or not...
"She's beauty, she's grace; she'll throw a tree in your face."
...as in,
Sometimes you need to use a bit of humor to regain your composure so you can finish preparing.


You cannot compare Harvey to Irma. The nature of the threat is completely different.


That's what I was trying to say. I saw people worrying they couldn't just evacuate inland because "they saw what happened to Houston." I was trying to say what happens with Irma won't be what happened with Harvey.
Sorry if that came across as unclear.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4098 Postby Shuriken » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:59 am

From the selfish perspective of the mainland, Puerto Rico needs to step up and tackle this thing.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4099 Postby cfltrib » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:00 pm

A slight east shift would be a dramatic improvement for the Florida east coast, especially if forward speed increases. Top wind speed on the "weak" side of the eye will be decreased by 2x the forward speed.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4100 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:03 pm

Michele B wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
MaineWeatherNut wrote:
The Cone has nothing to do with Model runs. It has to do with the Official NHC Forecast track and then the cone is decided based on the amount of miles error there historically has been at each forecast point. So the only way the Cone will move out of the GoM is if the NHC moves their forecast.

If the NHC does not use the models to help determine their track, then why do they talk about the models in their forecast discussions? This makes no sense.


I don't think it's that they don't use the models. I think it's just that they are more conservative in what they tell the public, since the models do tend to swing a lot. They take a more measured stance when interpreting the models than the average person might....witness what we're seeing the boards here!


I'm not a meteorologist, but in astrophysics we use models a lot too. And one of the things about computer models is that they require a lot of interpretation. All models require discretizing and approximations in order for them not to burn your computer down. However this has the consequence of introducing artifacts sometimes in the models that sometimes aren't present in reality. Real life is analog, not digital, but you can't capture everything. This is why you need someone with advanced knowledge of physics--someone who can connect the models to real life--to interpret them.
You can use models, but someone has to make a judgement call somewhere.
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