ATL: IRMA - Models

[MatthewsRevenge]

well. maybe those initially crazy GFS intensity projections weren't too crazy after all. I don't think Irma will quite get there, but she just keeps intensifying with no real impediments or obstacles at this point. Yowza.

It'll probably already get there by the time it heads to Puerto Rico. I don't think it can go any intense after that... I think it'll go the way HWRF has it as far as intensity goes if GFS' path is right.

[Ken711]

HWRF is quite a bit SW from the 6Z run...

Like the CMC and UKMET it wouldn't hurt to have some mountains slow the intensity.

[Langinbang187]

HWRF takes it into Cuba. Good news for FL, bad news for Cuba.

[Ken711]

To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

That's an amazing projection that far out.

[Voltron]

UK Plot



16.7, -57.7
17.2, -60.2
17.9, -63.0
18.9, -65.4
19.8, -68.0
20.6, -70.7
20.9, -73.1
20.9, -75.2
21.0, -77.2
21.2, -78.7
22.2, -79.7
23.5, -79.6
25.5, -79.5

Map tool: https://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=59aed24b454f67.43185594

Thanks tola, still right into Cuba

The UK is on to something, I posted a model on this earlier. I think we are gonna see this turn

[chris_fit]

HWRF way South @ 96 hours.... CUBA

[plasticup]

To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

To be fair it was a much simpler setup with just one big blocking high to steer it. The projected feature that will turn this storm is a different beast entirely.

[Steve]

The UK is a strange model. It is often a right or left outlier among the better models. Sometimes those verify, sometimes they don't. It used to have a worse right-bias than it does now. It should usually be considered in the consensus unless it's got a whack solution as opposed to everything else. As of now, it's fairly legit. Anything 100 miles either side of the tip of Florida looks reasonable to me. The particulars will happen closer to impact.

[Blinhart]

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... ng?8695221

More lines into Central Gulf Coast.

[tolakram]

I am pruning posts again, don't take it personally. Remember, to discuss use the discussion thread.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro int

[tolakram]

12z Euro init

[Bocadude85]

12Z HMON has a Cat 4/5 landfall in SE Fla

[Raebie]

Question: Why the 962 intit?

[Vdogg]

12z Euro init

Why did it init at 962 when it's already down to 931? Is it normal for a model to do this?

[tolakram]

Question: Why the 962 intit?

It's at the 850 level, no hi res available from TT.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Question: Why the 962 intit?

The tropical tidbits version uses a lower-res version of this model.

[gatorcane]

12Z HMON has a Cat 4/5 landfall in SE Fla

That is decent shift east by this model as well. Looks to landfall in West Palm Beach but not before much of the SE coast of Florida gets the western eyewall:

[Bocadude85]

The 12Z HWRF has shifted quite a bit southwest, run ends southwest of Key West in the extreme SE GOM

[bella_may]

12Z HWRF is way south of the last run