ATL: IRMA - Models

[chris_fit]

HWRF shift W and S at 12Z - Hello Gulf

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z HMON has a Cat 4/5 landfall in SE Fla

That is decent shift east by this model as well. Looks to landfall in West Palm Beach but not before much of the SE coast of Florida gets the western eyewall:

874 mb. And I thought GFS was low.

[Ken711]

12Z HMON has a Cat 4/5 landfall in SE Fla

That is decent shift east by this model as well. Looks to landfall in West Palm Beach but not before much of the SE coast of Florida gets the western eyewall:

Turning north sooner like some of the other models have trended today. Before it was the Keys and SW FL.

[tolakram]

Well SW of last 12z run, unfortunately.

[Bocadude85]

It's interesting that the HWRF shifted so far southwest, the HWRF is a MUCH better performing model then the HMON

[WAcyclone]

Question: Why the 962 intit?

The tropical tidbits version uses a lower-res version of this model.

High-resolution is also showing an initialization-pressure in the 960's:

[TheProfessor]

The 12z HWRF looked liked it yo-yo'd across Cuba.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[fci]

What have they not been buying into so far? Their forecast is reasonably in-line with the models through 5 days.

Not the GFS.
I see runs posted with East Coast problems yet the 5 day forecast has Irma at 81.2 which is west of the East Coast for sure.

5 days from now, Irma is forecast to be South of Florida, not to the state's East or West. And the NHC's current 5 day point of the Keys is still comfortably close to the GFS and the other probable solutions. Give it a couple more forecasts, the 5 day point will continue to shift northward, probably down the center of Florida until the picture is clearer.

This is a good reminder to not focus on the center of the cone 5 days out.

Speaking selfishly as a SE Metro area resident; if the storm is at 81.2 as forecasted; the fiercest part of the storm will not affect me.
Once it passes West, the turn is to the North and even if sudden; spares the Southeast Metro areas the worst. NE is dirty but would be far enough away from the eyewall.
Certainly not even close to saying all clear, but the more West the NHC projects, the better. For my area.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF looks a hair south of the 12Z GFS at the 48 hour position.

[ronjon]

All eyes on Euro to see if it shifts east like UKMET and GFS or is more southwest like GEM and HWRF.

[catskillfire51]

so far just a bit southeast at 48 hrs

[tolakram]

[Steve]

FWIW, NAVGEM eventually comes in around Georgia/South Carolina Border (SC side) on a NNW/NW Heading. The plots haven't filled in on the various runs yet, but here is 500mb Geopotential with MSLP at 156 hours/6.5 Days (Monday 7pm):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

On the average Precip Rate 500/MSLP run:

144 Hours (7am Monday)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=220

150 Hours (1pm Monday)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=220

[Steve]

JMA is out to 72 hours. Not much change.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=147

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS and ECMWF just about the same location at 72 hours.

[tolakram]

500mb

[AxaltaRacing24]

[gatorcane]

GFS and ECMWF looks nearly identical as far as 500MB at 72 hours. ECMWF develops BOC system, however, not sure what impact it will have, if any on Irma.