ATL: IRMA - Models

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mcheer23
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7141 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:15 pm

Hello Cuba
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7142 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:15 pm

Compared to yesterday's 12z, it's .5 degrees more South.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7143 Postby fci » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:15 pm

Ken711 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

Image


That's an amazing projection that far out.


Looks like the NHC believes in this run since their 5 day forecasted location is spot on to the model run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7144 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS and ECMWF looks nearly identical as far as 500MB at 72 hours. ECMWF develops BOC system, however, not sure what impact it will have, if any on Irma.


Couldn't that BOC system push Irma East?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7145 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:20 pm

Over Cuba at hour 102, a touch south of the 00z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7146 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:20 pm

Looks like Tropical Tidbits missed the 96. Looking at Weatherbell it hits Cuba and remains there through 102 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7147 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 pm

Starting NW movement at 108.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7148 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 pm

Landfall Cuba:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7149 Postby Langinbang187 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:22 pm

fci wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

Image


That's an amazing projection that far out.


Looks like the NHC believes in this run since their 5 day forecasted location is spot on to the model run.


To be fair the Euro has had this everywhere from The Eastern Gulf to off the coast of Nova Scotia & many places in between so one of its runs were bound to come to fruition at some point down the line lol.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7150 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 pm

tolakram wrote:Starting NW movement at 108.


Figured it would do that. the most recent runs of Euro have shown landfall in Cuba or grazing of it and then the bounce NW towards Florida. The unfortunate part is that I believe the part it landfalls is not as mountainous as the SE portion close to Haiti, but I could be mistaken.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7151 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:23 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7152 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:24 pm

caneseddy wrote:
tolakram wrote:Starting NW movement at 108.


Figured it would do that. the most recent runs of Euro have shown landfall in Cuba or grazing of it and then the bounce NW towards Florida. The unfortunate part is that I believe the part it landfalls is not as mountainous as the SE portion close to Haiti, but I could be mistaken.


114 hours and still moving NW and still over Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7153 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:24 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7154 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:25 pm

Crap - no model consensus now - 12z Euro just like the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7155 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:25 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


Going to follow the GFS just off the FL east coast maybe?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7156 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:26 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7157 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:26 pm

Looks like it's exiting the Cuban coast near Havana @ 120
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7158 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:26 pm

No. Past the SW Tip of FL at 120 along the N Cuba coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=120
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7159 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:27 pm

120. Well SW of GFS:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7160 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

Should impact the Keys first for the USA on this run.
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