ATL: IRMA - Models

[otowntiger]

12Z EUro shows Charley Part 2 at least for FL

But quite possibly stronger and bigger and any deviation to the north/west would put Tampa in the cross hairs. That would not be good.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hoping next Euro plot point keeps tampa bay on the west side of Irma's core, if it impacts severely at all...

[Extratropical94]

That's an amazing projection that far out.

I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything!

Is that Irma making landfall on Louisiana. Please don't be right.

No, that's the remnants of Harvey from last week. Keep in mind that this is a model run from last Thursday.

[jlauderdal]

12Z summary: some models shift or stay east (GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET). Some models stay or shift west (ECMWF, HWRF, CMC).

Net result: probably not a big change to NHC 5 day point east or west.

looking like a keys direct, sw florida direct, major effects se florida on the dirty side...at this point all you can hope for is not being within 50 miles of the center and that is just to avoid major hurricane winds and even then 100 miles out you could get major hurricane gusts, lets see how that all pans out on approach but everybody i-4 south at least needs to prepare for a major hurricane direct hit

[southwest southerner]

That's an amazing projection that far out.

I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything!

Is that Irma making landfall on Louisiana. Please don't be right.

That model is 6 days old...please don't use that for any guidance.

[Stormcenter]

The west shift is interesting and I wouldn't just discount it as a fluke run. Something is coming into play that we all may be missing here. Could it be the influence of whatever
develops in the SW Gulf has on Irma? Could it be the trough having less and less of affect on Irma?

[lando]

which side of the storm is the strongest again?

[gatorcane]

Comparison of GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions. Usually you go inbetween:

[sphelps8681]

I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything!

Is that Irma making landfall on Louisiana. Please don't be right.

That model is 6 days old...please don't use that for any guidance.

Thanks. I was wondering. It did not seem right.

[tolakram]

Between the frames this moves right over Jacksonville, though it stays onshore, then turns due north.

[Mouton]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

According to the model, it regenerates after exiting cuba. 962 over Cuba, 938 west of Naples albeit it may disassemble the wind field depending on topagraphy. In any event, it will probably be a high 2 low 3 minimum and perhaps higher. Charlie exited over Havana and took a righ turn south of Tampa, that may be in the cards. A turn that hard out of Cuba could mean the conditions favor a further move to the NE. I guess time will tell.

[lando]

Between the frames this moves right over Jacksonville, though it stays onshore, then turns due north.

any idea what this is in hi res

[AutoPenalti]

which side of the storm is the strongest again?

NE quadrant.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

where is that Euro forecast point after 120?

[bella_may]

Jma is much farther NW as well

[fci]

models appear to be shifting further and further west...isn't this what Ike did?

Yes.
I have seen eerie similarities in "Projected" track from Ike 9 years ago to Irma now where as time goes by it is further SW than expected.

[Jevo]

GFS goes East Euro goes West..... This is when the smart people at the NHC go to work. I'd love to be in the bullpen listening to these forecast discussion.

[txwatcher91]

So much for getting a consensus. Basically two camps split, one is western side of FL landfall and other is south/east side of FL.

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably weaken to a cat 2 or strong cat1 after leaving Cuba, but can gain some of that strength back before next landfall

Euro definitely doesnt show that. Much stronger... Cuba is not very mountainous on that side.

Models don't do very well with strength when it comes to land interaction

[fci]

12Z summary: some models shift or stay east (GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET). Some models stay or shift west (ECMWF, HWRF, CMC).

Net result: probably not a big change to NHC 5 day point east or west.

Basic consensus would be just up the middle. Not looking good folks.

Might be splitting the difference but the NHC track isn't splitting the difference putting her at 24.1, 81.2 in 5 days