ATL: IRMA - Models

[MGC]

Models now remind me of the tight clustering during Katrina's approach to the north gulf coast. Confidence is growing that south Florida has a very high chance of getting impacted by Irma......MGC

[La Sirena]

The models have been essentially the same since 00z yesterday. All show some sort of impact on South Florida, or just off either side of the state. Models have flipped around within that general area of emphasis, but they haven't budged from that general solution. That's 36 hours of consistency. So they will bounce East of Florida one run and back West the next, but that's unimportant.

It's important for the GA SC NC coasts. It's not just about Florida.

I think it's safe to say it's important to everyone. But, it does come to Florida in some manner first and that's why it seems biased.

Edit--sorry it's off topic so feel free to remove mods

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905150854780608512




Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
EPS ensemble spread is still unusually high for a 5-day forecast for Hurricane #Irma. Spaghettios are a mess -- ugh.
3:29 PM - Sep 5, 2017

How many EPS members hit the Carolinas?

[Steve]

Thanks Tolakram and SouthDadeFish for those EC Ensembles and comments on them. Unfortunately, I feel like I'm less able to discern the future with that spread which is wild. I expected them to somewhat coalesce with the time window closing. I'll maintain 100 miles either side of FL as a reasonable spot for this to come up without favoring either side. The only kicker is that HWRF had been the best performing model with Irma in the short term (and that was as of Friday or Saturday - haven't seen any verifications since), and its track across N Cuba and back out would lend a little credence to a SW FL hit. I don't know, and today was the day from last Thursday I thought we'd be a little more certain. It's a big bad question mark with me which if it was a tropical storm, no big deal. A Cat 4/Cat 5 and people's lives and property on the line, I'd prefer more clarity.

[northjaxpro]

The models have been essentially the same since 00z yesterday. All show some sort of impact on South Florida, or just off either side of the state. Models have flipped around within that general area of emphasis, but they haven't budged from that general solution. That's 36 hours of consistency. So they will bounce East of Florida one run and back West the next, but that's unimportant.

Excellent post. I could not have analyzed this any better!

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[Kingarabian]

The models have been notoriously poor past 4 days in my opinion. They've only been decent from 00-72 hours. Meaning by the time the model finally converge on a final solution, people will only have 48 to 72 hours to prepare. So start preparing now.

[NFLnut]

Which model is the Euro on that map?

Euro's not on that map.

[caneman]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z UKMET:

[/quot

Did the UKIE come back west with a hit on Florida now?

[Kohlecane]

Id say tomorrow's 18z runs along with the 00z Thur am we will know what we might have a good grasp on

[Steve]

I was responding to a post that got deleted. So I'll just tailor that response to the geography of SW FL itself:

GEFS & GEPS Ensembles are in the Eastern Gulf. EC is in the Eastern Gulf. HWRF is in the Eastern Gulf. Only good thing is that the population of the SW tip of Florida is pretty sparse and you have the Everglades above that. So less people would be impacted with the harshest weather if it hits south of say Naples. The Keys take it and everyone up the Peninsula will get bad weather. But the Cat 4/5 Conditions would be somewhat absorbed by the land. There are other concerns farther north such as the Myakka River (among others) and certainly Gasparilla Sound/Charlotte Harbor, Sarasota Bay, Pama Sola Bay and so on as you climb north in SW FL toward Tampa.

2010 Population Map
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... on_map.png

Worried about southerly winds here in the Big Bend, not only the surge but the trees are behind me, house faces north...

I hear you Larry. I think where you're at only a couple of ensembles and outlier models hit up that way. Based on all the other ones I looked at, you'd be to the west of the center at some point. I don't think you see South winds until it's far to your North or NE and the inflow winds at the surface suck in from the SW (relative to a storm to your NE) to feed into the low pressure from the ground as the air exits out the top in the other direction. I'm terrible with spacial reasoning, but I'm 90% sure that a storm coming up to your east as progged by most models would mean N winds turning NNW, NW, W, SW. Hopefully you're far enough west of the eventual impacts to the northern part of the state that they are minimalized. I don't have even a 1% worry for here in SELA and that carries pretty far east. You're on that cusp of maybe just maybe (e.g. a couple of EC Ensemble members). Easier said the farther west you are, I know. Just keep watching and preparing as best you can and hopefully you'll only end up with some fringe effects up there in Wakulla Co.

[eastcoastFL]

Thanks Tolakram and SouthDadeFish for those EC Ensembles and comments on them. Unfortunately, I feel like I'm less able to discern the future with that spread which is wild. I expected them to somewhat coalesce with the time window closing. I'll maintain 100 miles either side of FL as a reasonable spot for this to come up without favoring either side. The only kicker is that HWRF had been the best performing model with Irma in the short term (and that was as of Friday or Saturday - haven't seen any verifications since), and its track across N Cuba and back out would lend a little credence to a SW FL hit. I don't know, and today was the day from last Thursday I thought we'd be a little more certain. It's a big bad question mark with me which if it was a tropical storm, no big deal. A Cat 4/Cat 5 and people's lives and property on the line, I'd prefer more clarity.

Won't have clarity until late tomorrow at the earliest. I won't trust anything until we're inside the 3-day.

hopefully you wont have to evacuate at that point because it will be too late most likely. Traffic will be insane by thursday.

[MidnightRain]

Don't understand the model bashing. GFS and Euro have actually been on the money since the beginning, with displaying a major hurricane running up/near the SE coast of the US. Obviously it's going to sway back and forth, but no extreme shift has yet happened and I don't see it happening. Also people were criticizing the GFS for bombing this thing out. Looks like it was right with that as well.

[Steve]

Thanks Tolakram and SouthDadeFish for those EC Ensembles and comments on them. Unfortunately, I feel like I'm less able to discern the future with that spread which is wild. I expected them to somewhat coalesce with the time window closing. I'll maintain 100 miles either side of FL as a reasonable spot for this to come up without favoring either side. The only kicker is that HWRF had been the best performing model with Irma in the short term (and that was as of Friday or Saturday - haven't seen any verifications since), and its track across N Cuba and back out would lend a little credence to a SW FL hit. I don't know, and today was the day from last Thursday I thought we'd be a little more certain. It's a big bad question mark with me which if it was a tropical storm, no big deal. A Cat 4/Cat 5 and people's lives and property on the line, I'd prefer more clarity.

Won't have clarity until late tomorrow at the earliest. I won't trust anything until we're inside the 3-day.

It's a lot later than I expected. Early yesterday when it seemed like things were coming sort of together, I was thinking what a shock that is because I literally hate the globals this year in the 5-7 day range which was about where we were getting into. Some that were aligned with others went in different directions, and then the EC ensembles fanned out today on the 12Z runs. I'm pretty comfortable that I can nail it within 300 miles, but that doesn't mean ****. I need some model support to narrow that. I'm watching the HWRF, EC and GFS the closest (particularly EC and GFS ensembles) for an answer.

[NFLnut]

Won't have clarity until late tomorrow at the earliest. I won't trust anything until we're inside the 3-day.

hopefully you wont have to evacuate at that point because it will be too late most likely. Traffic will be insane by thursday.

I don't live on the coast. If I did, I'd be making plans now to leave just in case. I live where coasters come for shelter.

[caneman]

Don't understand the model bashing. GFS and Euro have actually been on the money since the beginning, with displaying a major hurricane running up/near the SE coast of the US. Obviously it's going to sway back and forth, but no extreme shift has yet happened and I don't see it happening. Also people were criticizing the GFS for bombing this thing out. Looks like it was right with that as well.

Agreed. The models have performed exceptionally well.

[NFLnut]

Won't have clarity until late tomorrow at the earliest. I won't trust anything until we're inside the 3-day.

It's a lot later than I expected. Early yesterday when it seemed like things were coming sort of together, I was thinking what a shock that is because I literally hate the globals this year in the 5-7 day range which was about where we were getting into. Some that were aligned with others went in different directions, and then the EC ensembles fanned out today on the 12Z runs. I'm pretty comfortable that I can nail it within 300 miles, but that doesn't mean ****. I need some model support to narrow that. I'm watching the HWRF, EC and GFS the closest (particularly EC and GFS ensembles) for an answer.

I'm with ya. I've been staring at the screen all day.

Does anyone know when we can see the next ECMWF? The only one I can find is 00z.

NM: Found it. I actually had it on another tab (12z). https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090512&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=228 Sign that I have too many tabs open with models and maps. lol

[jlauderdal]

The models have been notoriously poor past 4 days in my opinion. They've only been decent from 00-72 hours. Meaning by the time the model finally converge on a final solution, people will only have 48 to 72 hours to prepare. So start preparing now.

have you looked at the euro over the past 5 days...you want to see a high performer, go back and look at the nhc track from 5 days ago..the days of saying i want to be on the line at 5 days are coming to an end..they have really honed in on all the issues with the various models and then sliced and diced something up every 6 hours and made a great track out of tons of moving parts that all contain noise

[Evil Jeremy]

Won't have clarity until late tomorrow at the earliest. I won't trust anything until we're inside the 3-day.

It's a lot later than I expected. Early yesterday when it seemed like things were coming sort of together, I was thinking what a shock that is because I literally hate the globals this year in the 5-7 day range which was about where we were getting into. Some that were aligned with others went in different directions, and then the EC ensembles fanned out today on the 12Z runs. I'm pretty comfortable that I can nail it within 300 miles, but that doesn't mean ****. I need some model support to narrow that. I'm watching the HWRF, EC and GFS the closest (particularly EC and GFS ensembles) for an answer.

I'm with ya. I've been staring at the screen all day.

Does anyone know when we can see the next ECMWF? The only one I can find is 00z.

12z finished around an hour and a half ago. Next 00z at 1;30am

[Steve]

Don't understand the model bashing. GFS and Euro have actually been on the money since the beginning, with displaying a major hurricane running up/near the SE coast of the US. Obviously it's going to sway back and forth, but no extreme shift has yet happened and I don't see it happening. Also people were criticizing the GFS for bombing this thing out. Looks like it was right with that as well.

Agreed. The models have performed exceptionally well.

I'm going to disagree with y'all a little. People are scared and want answers. I could only imagine social media sites with all the b.s. that gets passed around as fact which is why I have no accounts with any of them. While many of the models were decent in the long term and ended up fairly close to where we're at today (reference that last Thursday EC someone posted earlier), you want them to settle a solution sooner than later. We're at 6 days and possibly inside of 6 days. Things are narrowed down considerably since GFS was turning it up east of 45W. But if you're on the ground in the proverbial line of fire, you know you might be dealing with a Cat 4 or Cat 5. Both are on or past the limit that many residential structures can stand. So people want answers. Models diverging as time closes in doesn't help. I guess it's like cursing the darkness instead of lighting a candle or whatever. But I'd be on edge like a ** if I lived in South Florida and might be dealing with a Cat 4 or 5.

I understand that a global model isn't supposed to be able to reflect a very localized solution. So they've done good in the macro sense. With landfall likely within a week, I think people want better. I'm sure y'all understand that too.