ATL: IRMA - Models

[mcheer23]

It's a lot later than I expected. Early yesterday when it seemed like things were coming sort of together, I was thinking what a shock that is because I literally hate the globals this year in the 5-7 day range which was about where we were getting into. Some that were aligned with others went in different directions, and then the EC ensembles fanned out today on the 12Z runs. I'm pretty comfortable that I can nail it within 300 miles, but that doesn't mean ****. I need some model support to narrow that. I'm watching the HWRF, EC and GFS the closest (particularly EC and GFS ensembles) for an answer.

I'm with ya. I've been staring at the screen all day.

Does anyone know when we can see the next ECMWF? The only one I can find is 00z.

The GFS and Euro run every 6 hrs.

EURO runs every 12

[facemane]

I'm with ya. I've been staring at the screen all day.

Does anyone know when we can see the next ECMWF? The only one I can find is 00z.

The GFS and Euro run every 6 hrs.

EURO runs every 12

Thanks, I stand corrected.

[Kingarabian]

The models have been notoriously poor past 4 days in my opinion. They've only been decent from 00-72 hours. Meaning by the time the model finally converge on a final solution, people will only have 48 to 72 hours to prepare. So start preparing now.

have you looked at the euro over the past 5 days...you want to see a high performer, go back and look at the nhc track from 5 days ago..the days of saying i want to be on the line at 5 days are coming to an end..they have really honed in on all the issues with the various models and then sliced and diced something up every 6 hours and made a great track out of tons of moving parts that all contain noise

Yeah the Euro has been shifting east and west each run...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Can someone post the Ensembles for the ukmet. I'm sure it's been posted, but I can't find it.

[jlauderdal]

The models have been notoriously poor past 4 days in my opinion. They've only been decent from 00-72 hours. Meaning by the time the model finally converge on a final solution, people will only have 48 to 72 hours to prepare. So start preparing now.

have you looked at the euro over the past 5 days...you want to see a high performer, go back and look at the nhc track from 5 days ago..the days of saying i want to be on the line at 5 days are coming to an end..they have really honed in on all the issues with the various models and then sliced and diced something up every 6 hours and made a great track out of tons of moving parts that all contain noise

Yeah the Euro has been shifting east and west each run...

well the models move around a little but we havent seen huge shifts recently, they are targeting south about 125 mile wide target zone at 5 days, that is good agreement this far out....if you are in the keys or central and south florida you better be ready and then hope you dont get the core, this core makes harvey look 2nd rate

[MrJames]

Can someone post the Ensembles for the ukmet. I'm sure it's been posted, but I can't find it.

12z UKMet Ensembles

[ava_ati]

UKMET really thinks that high pressure is going to push it into Cuba, and it has pretty consistently said that. Be interesting to see if it starts trending towards GFS or if GFS trends towards it.

[clipper35]

So how can Irma move north through Florida then take a northwest turn, I thought there was a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest and I thought that a ridge would push it east northeast.

[Ken711]

So how can Irma move north through Florida then take a northwest turn, I thought there was a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest and I thought that a ridge would push it east northeast.

Which model was this displayed?

[clipper35]

So how can Irma move north through Florida then take a northwest turn, I thought there was a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest and I thought that a ridge would push it east northeast.

Which model was this displayed?

If you look at the end of the model runs gfs and euro and cmc both hook left towards Tennessee.

[Ken711]

So how can Irma move north through Florida then take a northwest turn, I thought there was a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest and I thought that a ridge would push it east northeast.

Which model was this displayed?

If you look at the end of the model runs gfs and euro and cmc both hook left towards Tennessee.

That's so far out into the model runs forecasts, I wouldn't depend on the accuracy being high.

[SunnyThoughts]

Gfs rolling

[tolakram]

18z so far

[TheStormExpert]

I'm calling BS, it has Irma heading wnw which it's not, it's still heading at a decent pace due west.

[Kohlecane]

I'm calling BS, it has Irma heading wnw which it's not, it's still heading at a decent pace due west.

Initialized Mb better

[wxman57]

So how can Irma move north through Florida then take a northwest turn, I thought there was a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest and I thought that a ridge would push it east northeast.

Which model was this displayed?

If you look at the end of the model runs gfs and euro and cmc both hook left towards Tennessee.

Trof over New England Sat/Sun is replaced by a ridge coming in from the west, causing Irma to turn NW Tue-Wed of next week.

[gatorcane]

GFS is already NW of 12Z run after 24 hours.

[bonjourno]

Would be good news for most of the islands if it verified.

[TheStormExpert]

You can see the NHC has trended west a tad bit when compared to its previous forecast track update. Hard to ignore the fact that they're siding with the Euro.

[utweather]

I'm calling BS, it has Irma heading wnw which it's not, it's still heading at a decent pace due west.

Post #3970 on discussion board from Michele B shows satellite loop of wnw movement.