ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HedwigTramp]

There are a lot of cruise ships still lingering in the area. I hope they know what they are doing.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml

[Michele B]

Sun setting...

Oh, now you can see the slightly north of due west track.

[p1nheadlarry]

Sun setting...

Oh, now you can see the slightly north of due west track.

Still don't see how Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, or St Barts escapes the eye wall. Same for the Virgin Islands later on.

[Extratropical94]

135 kt FL and 119 kt SFMR in SE quad so far. Strongest winds not yet sampled. Center pass and NW eyewall coming up in 10 minutes.

[Kingarabian]

Next set will be the center.

[Aric Dunn]

It needs to turn a little more north to miss PR.... current motion would put most of the SOuthern eyeway over the island.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052135
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 06 20170905
212530 1625N 05916W 6960 03108 9969 +110 +066 207062 062 041 002 00
212600 1627N 05917W 6957 03109 9975 +101 +072 210063 063 043 003 00
212630 1629N 05919W 6954 03104 9970 +098 +078 210065 065 044 005 00
212700 1630N 05920W 6966 03086 9966 +095 +078 208064 065 048 008 00
212730 1632N 05922W 6956 03091 9957 +095 +090 213064 066 049 010 00
212800 1634N 05923W 6958 03081 9940 +105 +090 223067 068 051 007 00
212830 1635N 05925W 6971 03056 9929 +104 +089 228072 073 053 006 00
212900 1637N 05926W 6960 03058 9919 +101 +098 222074 076 057 010 00
212930 1638N 05928W 6955 03053 9906 +102 //// 220080 085 061 010 01
213000 1640N 05929W 6961 03035 9900 +096 //// 220082 084 063 011 01
213030 1642N 05930W 6951 03032 9874 +104 +103 225082 083 067 010 00
213100 1643N 05932W 6959 03008 9851 +109 +107 225088 089 070 008 00
213130 1645N 05933W 6955 02998 9836 +107 //// 223096 098 074 013 01
213200 1646N 05935W 6958 02979 9822 +103 //// 222100 102 078 029 01
213230 1648N 05936W 6954 02957 9789 +107 //// 223105 107 086 036 01
213300 1649N 05937W 6967 02915 9757 +109 //// 225105 106 087 042 01
213330 1651N 05939W 6930 02931 9719 +113 //// 228102 107 094 021 01
213400 1652N 05940W 6954 02875 9681 +123 //// 225107 110 101 013 01
213430 1654N 05941W 6957 02831 9637 +125 +121 222114 120 111 002 00
213500 1655N 05943W 6939 02793 9578 +121 +118 226129 135 119 002 00

[gfsperpendicular]

135 kt FL and 119 kt SFMR in SE quad so far. Strongest winds not yet sampled. Center pass and NW eyewall coming up in 10 minutes.

I'm scared to see what they'll find

[got ants?]

last image on radar is crazy intense.. recon will sample it shortly http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

I just can't imagine - truly can not - what it will be like on Antigua & Barbuda tonight... NO WORDS to express the horror I'm feeling for this situation,

Prayers be sent to them. It gone be awful mon.

[Michele B]

Lee County, Bonita Springs has a big problem, just saw it on the local news.

They had major flooding, and people have cleaned out their flooded items. Problem with that? They're mostly all piled up with their trash out on the streets. And it hasn't been picked up yet.

They're scared of where all that trash will end up if it isn't picked up before the storm arrives....plus they've JUST gone through this flood event, and aren't looking forward to another catastrophic weather event.

It seems like where ever you look, there's more desperation and sadness.

I have no words.....

[wxman57]

If the current 5 day track holds true, it will either go into the Gulf or rake back across FL, neither of which is a good option.

The sharp northerly turn is predicted to occur just after or very near that 120-hr point. Not looking good for the FL Peninsula at all.

[eastcoastFL]

Good afternoon Aric-

Wanted your opinions on the model developments for the day. Being on the west coast of Fl wanted to get your thoughts on the two model
camps and what you think may eventually happens

I think its a distinct possibility of getting into the gulf. the models that have more land interaction may be slower and sharper turn because of it. those that don't and are slightly further north make it a little farther west.

we also have to worry about pumping up the ridge from the hurricane any extra sliver of ridging will get it farther west.

its still too early.. but I would be prepared regardless.

Even if it were to reach the gulf wouldn't it still at some point be pushed back across Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

last image on radar is crazy intense.. recon will sample it shortly http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

I just can't imagine - truly can not - what it will be like on Antigua & Barbuda tonight... NO WORDS to express the horror I'm feeling for this situation,

Prayers be sent to them. It gone be awful mon.

luckily that outer eyewall is starting to intensify which will slowly weaken the inner just in time for the islands... so a little good news..

[bahamaswx]

Looks like a pretty decent population on those islands as well.

And not a one of them would have evacuated. Because when you live in an island nation, there's no where else to go.

[supercane4867]

Why does the NHC forecast weaken it from the current 185 to 140? Is it due to Irma being close to land, thus impeding outflow? The SST's are actually even HIGHER in the straits than the current area the storm is in.

The NHC is typically very conservative for long range intensity predictions since it's almost impossible to forecast inner core evolutions that far in the future. Current forecast showing decrease in strength maybe largely based on assumption that hurricanes usually won't maintain extreme intensities that long.

[SFLcane]

If the current 5 day track holds true, it will either go into the Gulf or rake back across FL, neither of which is a good option.

The sharp northerly turn is predicted to occur just after or very near that 120-hr point. Not looking good for the FL Peninsula at all.

57 Irma is projected to be a huge storm how far out do you think hurricane force winds will extend. My grandma lives in vero beach and shes beyond worried. Thx

[bonjourno]

Must be quite scary being on one of those islands, although I'm guessing most of the residents are probably used to this sort of thing. Hopefully building codes and utility systems are up to snuff.

[Extratropical94]

While we are waiting for the center pass, AF305 is getting ready for takeoff.

[T-man]

I'm watching a St. Bart's webcam, they will be in for a rough night. Squally weather, deteriorating conditions now...
http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/caribb ... bcam.shtml

[Extratropical94]

916.4 mb
151 kt FL
151 kt SFMR