ATL: IRMA - Models

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Kohlecane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7321 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:54 pm

Ridge at 72 is weaker imo. This could definitely put SC to VA back in a zone of real discomfort
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7322 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:54 pm

Quite a ways north of 12z

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7323 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:55 pm

GFS so far

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7324 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:56 pm

Heading W at 84 hours. This is some new wrinkle with the GFS that is for sure:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7325 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:56 pm

tolakram wrote:GFS so far

Image
that looks like an upcoming direct hit for the se coast
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7326 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:56 pm

GFS on the east camp hard. Do we have yet another chapter to write in the ECMWF v GFS saga? EPS were not the tightest cluster I've seen...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7327 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:57 pm

tolakram wrote:GFS so far

Image

Wobble de wobble at the end me no like SFL still very much at play
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7328 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:58 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=90

Looks like NW to a W jog at 90hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7329 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:58 pm

GFS going sub 900 again

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7330 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:58 pm

Seems to be moving a lot faster this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7331 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:59 pm

Starting to wonder if this is going to be another one of those "meet me in the middle" scenarios between the ECMWF and GFS...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7332 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:59 pm

Escape route opening up...

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7333 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:59 pm

Hmm, maybe back to a coastal rider? This might be too far north, not sure I'm buying.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7334 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:59 pm

Raebie wrote:Seems to be moving a lot faster this run?



Just a couple hundred miles from the coast in about 4 days, yeah.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7335 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm

Again under 900mb... Geez
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7336 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm

So, it is going to miss the Carolinas right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7337 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm

Looks like it will turn east of FL this run. Good news here - maybe the ECMWF will shift east later also.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7338 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm

quite a ways from 18z now at hr102
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7339 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm

It's got it, moving north/nw now.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7340 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:01 pm

Hows the ridge and trough look in comparison?
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