ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

There's probably only about a 2or 3% chance that this goes out to sea

I wouldn't guestimate a percentage. It's all finicky right now, extremely difficult to pin point and any slight nudge of anything will make the world of a difference.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind this is the updated GFS, the version the NHC did not like. It has had HUGE track errors this year, some even short term.

[bonjourno]

Landfalls near SC/NC border Monday night.

[mcheer23]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

UKMET trended east.

They probably meant the EURO

[Blown Away]

Does the GFS tend to underestimate or over estimate ridges compared to the Euro?

GFS tends to be right biased and normally overestimates troughs compared to the Euro.

After NC landfall goes NNW into CONUS... Still lots of ridging not letting Irma escape the CONUS...

[BensonTCwatcher]

About to hit SC/NC. What are the ocean temps there, does the gulf stream run thereabouts?

This time time of year the Gulf Stream is around 50 miles offshore (depending on capes etc.) Water temps in the mid 80's

[Raebie]

OK, kid's coming home from Wilmington after work on Friday. These models aar too freakin erratic.

[tolakram]

12Z UKie. Cuba and then due north, east of Florida.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm sure this has been discussed for days but that lingering trough over the northeast will be a huge player to Irma, the longer it lingers the more likely it'll induce a further northeast movement but it likely won't be enough to turn it OTS.

How fast Irma moves will also matter a great deal. That eastern trough is no joke so I wouldn't sleep on the gfs.

[MatthewsRevenge]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

Wait... so UKMet is going back further west (since they were pushing Irma east of Miami at one point)???

Is GFS trying to be an outlier in this run? I'm guessing Irma's path is confusing GFS. I don't think the trough will be deep enough to push it further away from Florida. Next thing you know their next run (00z) will have it OTS.

[ava_ati]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

UKMET trended east.

Sorry I mean that the ECMWF is trending west before it makes it's north turn south of Florida

[ConvergenceZone]

There's probably only about a 2or 3% chance that this goes out to sea

I wouldn't guestimate a percentage. It's all finicky right now, extremely difficult to pin point and any slight nudge of anything will make the world of a difference.

But it's running out of time which is why the NHC isn't even talking about out to sea in their discussions

[jlauderdal]

Listen to alonyo, he is more credible than that gfs run..hopefully he is wrong, o doubt it

[TheStormExpert]

The eastward shift by the GFS is what now worries me, now a track over the FL Peninsula is now becoming more apparent, I am sure it will shift back west during the next runs.
Lets not forget that the GFS was right biased with Irma over the Leeward Islands in its 5-7 day range.

I was just thinking the same think. If anything the Euro will now shift east to show a track up the spine of the peninsula I would think.

[ava_ati]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

UKMET trended east.

Sorry I meant that the ECMWF is trending west before it makes it's north turn south of Florida

[jlauderdal]

Does the GFS tend to underestimate or over estimate ridges compared to the Euro?

It tends to do lots of odd things and have big swings...euro has been much more consistent for this system

[tolakram]

Where it ends up is actually not that much different, it's the path it takes to get there.

Euro plot, also Cuba and then north, but west side of Florida.

[NDG]

Now watch all the TV Mets jump on the 18z GFS and say that FL is now looking better, lol.

[jlauderdal]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

Not really, gfs gets a win sometimes, nhc track has been rock solid on irma, follow it

[Raebie]

This is insane. No one know where it's going. I had hoped by tonight we would have some clarity.