ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052237
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 07 20170905
222830 1822N 06216W 6967 03175 0062 +105 +048 057047 048 030 001 00
222900 1822N 06214W 6970 03170 0061 +105 +049 058047 048 031 001 00
222930 1823N 06212W 6967 03173 0059 +105 +051 058048 048 035 001 00
223000 1823N 06211W 6969 03168 0061 +103 +052 062048 049 035 001 00
223030 1824N 06209W 6969 03172 0059 +105 +052 063048 049 035 001 00
223100 1824N 06208W 6975 03162 0059 +105 +050 065048 048 034 001 00
223130 1825N 06206W 6963 03173 0057 +105 +050 064047 048 036 001 00
223200 1825N 06204W 6970 03169 0053 +108 +048 065049 049 037 000 00
223230 1826N 06203W 6970 03166 0052 +110 +046 065049 049 037 001 00
223300 1826N 06201W 6970 03167 0060 +103 +047 064048 049 037 001 00
223330 1827N 06200W 6965 03172 0063 +102 +046 066047 048 038 000 00
223400 1827N 06158W 6967 03171 0059 +105 +044 065047 048 037 001 00
223430 1828N 06157W 6974 03163 0060 +103 +045 064047 047 036 001 00
223500 1828N 06155W 6973 03162 0059 +104 +044 064047 048 038 001 00
223530 1829N 06153W 6970 03167 0058 +104 +044 064048 048 039 001 00
223600 1829N 06152W 6979 03157 0057 +107 +044 062048 049 037 001 00
223630 1830N 06150W 6967 03169 0060 +102 +047 062047 049 038 001 00
223700 1830N 06149W 6967 03172 0059 +104 +047 063047 047 037 001 03
223730 1831N 06148W 6967 03167 0066 +099 +049 064047 048 038 001 03
223800 1830N 06146W 6961 03177 0063 +100 +049 061048 048 032 002 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

noaa

222530 1639N 06110W 7508 02498 0005 +140 +114 353041 043 033 002 00
222600 1637N 06110W 7503 02501 0003 +141 +115 351041 041 034 002 00
222630 1634N 06110W 7519 02483 0007 +137 +128 344044 046 033 002 03
222700 1633N 06108W 7499 02504 0005 +136 +134 340036 037 031 003 03
222730 1633N 06105W 7517 02482 0003 +138 +127 338040 041 033 002 03
222800 1634N 06104W 7508 02494 9996 +145 +113 343040 041 031 002 00
222830 1635N 06102W 7525 02472 9992 +147 +105 341042 043 032 002 00
222900 1636N 06100W 7519 02472 9990 +143 +114 340047 049 034 002 00
222930 1637N 06059W 7518 02471 9986 +144 +114 342048 048 034 002 00
223000 1638N 06057W 7521 02466 9984 +144 +106 341049 050 035 002 00
223030 1639N 06055W 7518 02465 9982 +141 +113 342050 051 035 002 00
223100 1640N 06054W 7525 02455 9979 +140 +110 339052 052 037 002 00
223130 1641N 06052W 7522 02452 9979 +132 +128 335052 054 037 002 00
223200 1643N 06050W 7513 02458 9971 +137 +120 340052 053 038 003 00
223230 1644N 06049W 7512 02456 9967 +134 +127 342059 065 041 006 00
223300 1645N 06047W 7528 02432 9959 +136 +131 343060 061 041 004 00
223330 1646N 06046W 7510 02447 9954 +132 +131 342061 063 042 004 00
223400 1647N 06044W 7514 02433 9947 +132 +129 341066 069 044 005 00
223430 1648N 06043W 7513 02427 9939 +133 +131 340068 070 047 007 00
223500 1649N 06041W 7498 02437 9924 +140 +124 340071 072 048 008 00

[Jimsot]

I lived on Anguilla for ten years. Everyone knows the score. I rode out OMAR and EARL. Totally concrete house. Noisy but no major problems. Landscaping is a different issue. Irma is a different story if we were still there I would lock down the house and leave.

Must be quite scary being on one of those islands, although I'm guessing most of the residents are probably used to this sort of thing. Hopefully building codes and utility systems are up to snuff.

[Extratropical94]

914.3 mb so far
137 kt FL
137 kt SFMR
SW quadrant - weakest part of the storm right now

[terstorm1012]

Barbuda and Anguilla look like they will get a direct strike now. I'm absolutely sick over this.

[1900hurricane]

Irma is now close enough that the Air Force plane went right to 700 mb immediately after take off.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052245
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 13 20170905
223530 1650N 06040W 7510 02418 9920 +136 +121 340077 078 049 007 00
223600 1651N 06038W 7506 02412 9911 +132 +130 341078 079 048 008 00
223630 1652N 06037W 7513 02392 9900 +135 +126 335080 082 048 009 00
223700 1653N 06035W 7522 02375 9884 +141 +122 331085 089 050 010 00
223730 1654N 06034W 7499 02381 9868 +137 +133 334088 090 056 022 00
223800 1655N 06032W 7518 02343 9846 +136 //// 333090 092 061 018 05
223830 1656N 06030W 7514 02326 9825 +134 //// 330092 095 066 014 01
223900 1658N 06029W 7507 02314 9793 +141 //// 333097 101 074 024 01
223930 1658N 06027W 7444 02355 9754 +143 //// 339096 099 080 014 01
224000 1659N 06026W 7499 02263 9717 +157 +146 339102 103 086 009 00
224030 1700N 06025W 7499 02227 9683 +154 +152 336107 110 089 008 00
224100 1701N 06023W 7506 02183 9640 +155 +154 334111 114 095 009 00
224130 1702N 06022W 7518 02119 9590 +154 +149 333120 124 104 015 00
224200 1703N 06020W 7512 02063 9521 +155 +148 333134 137 113 028 00
224230 1704N 06019W 7481 02021 9432 +158 //// 331130 133 123 050 05
224300 1705N 06018W 7424 01999 9327 +169 //// 333110 121 137 011 05
224330 1706N 06016W 7466 01883 9247 +189 +177 337085 095 132 000 03
224400 1707N 06014W 7512 01788 9187 +216 +173 341055 065 069 001 00
224430 1708N 06012W 7512 01767 9157 +229 +174 356027 034 058 000 03
224500 1708N 06010W 7513 01757 9143 +235 +176 024011 016 028 003 03

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052247
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 08 20170905
223830 1829N 06145W 6967 03166 0060 +100 +049 058047 048 036 000 00
223900 1828N 06144W 6966 03167 0054 +105 +046 059047 048 036 000 00
223930 1827N 06143W 6969 03164 0055 +102 +049 057045 047 035 001 00
224000 1826N 06141W 6967 03167 0052 +105 +056 055046 047 036 000 03
224030 1825N 06140W 6969 03164 0054 +103 +056 060047 048 036 000 00
224100 1823N 06139W 6966 03162 0052 +102 +054 062049 050 036 001 00
224130 1822N 06138W 6967 03159 0046 +106 +050 061050 051 036 001 00
224200 1821N 06136W 6970 03158 0044 +106 +049 062053 055 037 001 00
224230 1820N 06135W 6966 03158 0047 +101 +055 063056 056 039 001 00
224300 1819N 06134W 6967 03155 0048 +099 +063 064054 056 039 001 00
224330 1818N 06133W 6967 03155 0045 +100 +060 064054 055 039 001 00
224400 1817N 06132W 6967 03151 0046 +098 +060 064054 055 037 002 00
224430 1816N 06131W 6965 03155 0051 +091 +065 062053 053 038 001 00
224500 1814N 06129W 6969 03148 0046 +094 +063 060052 053 038 001 00
224530 1813N 06128W 6967 03149 0045 +093 +064 059054 054 039 000 00
224600 1812N 06127W 6963 03152 0033 +103 +054 058054 054 038 001 00
224630 1811N 06126W 6971 03139 0030 +105 +052 060054 055 036 001 00
224700 1810N 06124W 6968 03141 0028 +103 +052 062057 058 037 001 00
224730 1809N 06123W 6969 03138 0021 +106 +049 064059 060 039 000 00
224800 1808N 06122W 6966 03139 0019 +107 +054 065061 062 037 001 00
$$

[Airboy]

914.3 mb so far
137 kt FL
137 kt SFMR
SW quadrant - weakest part of the storm right now

Pressure dropping fast

[NYR__1994]

Am I missing something, but it looks to me like the final pin ton the NHC forecast hasn't moved for the past three updates...5 am this morning, 11 am and 5 pm all look like they are in the same place.

Is this the NHC hedging and buying time or is he storm forecast slowing down that much with each forecast?

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/ouragans/status/905200597221158913




Guadeloupe radar. Islands to left of storm are Antigua & Barbuda.

[znel52]

914 seriously? Is that from a sonde or extrapolated.

[Extratropical94]

914.3 mb so far
137 kt FL
137 kt SFMR
SW quadrant - weakest part of the storm right now

Pressure dropping fast

Yep, but given the instrument's low bias, it is more likely to be around 917. Dropsonde will tell us soon.

[bahamaswx]

914.3 mb so far
137 kt FL
137 kt SFMR
SW quadrant - weakest part of the storm right now

Isn't the 137 SFMR in that quadrant flagged?

[Extratropical94]

914 seriously? Is that from a sonde or extrapolated.

Extrapolated

[RL3AO]

Am I missing something, but it looks to me like the final pin ton the NHC forecast hasn't moved for the past three updates...5 am this morning, 11 am and 5 pm all look like they are in the same place.

Is this the NHC hedging and buying time or is he storm forecast slowing down that much with each forecast?

I think they are a little bit. Once they place the dot over Miami...well. South Florida becomes like storm2k

[Extratropical94]

914.3 mb so far
137 kt FL
137 kt SFMR
SW quadrant - weakest part of the storm right now

Isn't the 137 SFMR in that quadrant flagged?

You're right, it is. The highest unflagged is 113 kt.

[supercane4867]

At the same time it appears Irma has finally made it to T7.0 on Dvorak, although it's just irrelevant at this point

[znel52]

914 seriously? Is that from a sonde or extrapolated.

Extrapolated

Wow still insanely impressive. This is the Atlantic's Patricia. Can't believe it is still bombing right now!

[tropicwatch]

Not to the eye yet and getting 916mb readings.