ATL: IRMA - Models

[Kohlecane]

Looks like the consensus slips slightly east...

Sure from NW Cuba to NC some great consistency lol

[Blown Away]

Where it ends up is actually not that much different, it's the path it takes to get there.

Euro plot, also Cuba and then north, but west side of Florida.

Really hard to buy the 90 degree track, but that most reliable model say yes... I hope it doesn't end up a smooth blend of Euro/GFS...

[MatthewsRevenge]

I think UK and GFS is outdoing that trough. We're gonna have to wait for Euro in the morning (and GFS before midnight).

[Sanibel]

Sorry, I'm a little frazzled from being in the gun barrel sights of this...I look now and it was a UK Model consensus and not spaghetti like I thought... Mod can zap the post...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM continues east of Florida:

[adam0983]

Hurricane Irma may pull a hurricane Matthew. Why did the gfs model go so Far East now. People in south Florida are panicking. everyone needs to relax take a deep breathe and wait for a hurricane watch and then believe the models. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[gatorcane]

So we have the GFS, UKMET, and NAVGEM east of Florida with the Euro, HWRF, and CMC west with the ECMWF over west Florida. There is at least a chance this goes east of Florida.

[MatthewsRevenge]

18Z NAVGEM continues east of Florida:

That map looks like Florida is getting eaten by Irma.

[CourierPR]

So we have the GFS, UKMET, and NAVGEM east of Florida with the Euro, HWRF, and CMC west with the ECMWF over west Florida. There is at least a chance this goes east of Florida.

Will the NHC take the middle ground?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hurricane Irma may pull a hurricane Matthew. Why did the gfs model go so Far East now. People in south Florida are panicking. everyone needs to relax take a deep breathe and wait for a hurricane watch and then believe the models. Just an opinion not a forecast.

The thing is, not all of the computer models take it east. Most Meteorologists and the NHC don't think it will go to the east of Florida. It's possible it might but it's too much of a risk at this point now to tell them not to start preparing even if it it doesn't.

[bevgo]

Hi. This is Codygo. Bevgo grandson. I'm the one doing a science fair project on hurricanes. Can you show me how to find the spaghetti .models. Bevgo, my Nene is sleeping.

Thank you.

[utweather]

Looks like the consensus slips slightly east...

There doesn't appear to be any model consensus at this point.

Isn't the TVCN(correct initials?) model the consensus and the NHC has stayed kinda close to that one. So maybe a eastward shift on subsequent updates???

[Nimbus]

The powers that be expect the NHC staff to keep the official track on the left side of guidance.
Other than the Euro Disney run (that probably returns south in the Pacific somewhere) are there any other credible model runs further west than Florida?

[Ken711]

So we have the GFS, UKMET, and NAVGEM east of Florida with the Euro, HWRF, and CMC west with the ECMWF over west Florida. There is at least a chance this goes east of Florida.

Will the NHC take the middle ground?

Middle ground sounds reasonable, until the Euro moves east of Florida, then it would seem they are honing on consensus.

[bevgo]

Nene. Bevgo said to tell you the XTRAP rocks. Rofl

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF trending N than 12z...

[Kohlecane]

IMO. didnt UK do really well with Matthew last year?

[gatorcane]

Is it possible more data has been put into models which is causing the north shift? Let's see where the HWRF ends up but if it shifts east, that would really just leave the ECMWF to the west along with the CMC

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is there a chance the models are wrong, and instead of swinging back into the SE coastline it gets picked up by the trough?

[MatthewsRevenge]

Is it possible more data has been put into models which is causing the north shift? Let's see where the HWRF ends up but if it shifts east, that would really just leave the ECMWF to the west along with the CMC

This late in the game? I don't know. It's possible but right now I'm not seeing it. But we'll see what HWRF does.