ATL: IRMA - Models

[Nimbus]

Looks like a trough starting to dig south into northern Georgia on the water vapor loop.
Could this be what the models that shifted east are seeing?

[Blinhart]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

[Hammy]

Just checked the models, Irma is about 415 miles W-WSW of where the GFS 120 hour position was, and about 195mi W-WNW of the Euro 120 hour.

[RL3AO]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

It's been moving WNW all day as forecast.

[Nimbus]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

There is a trough digging south into northern Georgia currently, if it persists?
Major hurricane like Irma can lose steering while they are filling in a trough with their outflow so the stall scenario kind of makes sense.

[Blinhart]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

It's been moving WNW all day as forecast.

I'm talking about the abrupt Turn North south of the tip of Florida, sorry if I wasn't clear.

[Blinhart]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

There is a trough digging south into northern Georgia currently, if it persists?
Major hurricane like Irma can lose steering while they are filling in a trough with their outflow so the stall scenario kind of makes sense.

I thought there is some type of ULL or something over the Mississippi Valley that was suppose to turn it not a small trough.

[gatorcane]

00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot. Look closely: TVCN (consensus track) is just east of Florida:

[Blinhart]

00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot:

They need to stop posting these, these don't mean anything.

What I mean by that it is only 18Z there is no way to know what the 00Z will show, I think these are just on the climatology at that time.

[NYR__1994]

I think a lot of people are missing the forest for trees....

The model guidance is pretty tightly clustered at the 5-6-7 day range considering we are looking that far ahead. They are all predicting a right turn somewhere around the southern tip of the Florida Penninsula...If we were looking at a track 6 days out that was headed straight for the coast that would be the difference between a Jacksonville and Savannah landfall. With the angle of attack this storm is expected to take, a difference in 75 miles (nothing in a 5 day forecast) is the difference between riding up the east coast or west coast of Florida with impacts up the eastern seaboard or inland to Pensacola/Tallahasee.

While this is not a technical post (I will leave those to the experts) the bottom line is this storm has been very well modeled and forecasted by the NHC. On that note, I am extremely curious to see where the final forecast point is at the 11:00 update, seeing how it hasn't moved for the last 3-4 updates...

[Nimbus]

What is suppose to make it turn North, I still don't see anything.

There is a trough digging south into northern Georgia currently, if it persists?
Major hurricane like Irma can lose steering while they are filling in a trough with their outflow so the stall scenario kind of makes sense.

I thought there is some type of ULL or something over the Mississippi Valley that was suppose to turn it not a small trough.

Could be the front edge of that moving into northern Georgia now or some later element.

Looks like the category 2 winds don't extend out very far maybe Puerto Rico will get lucky?

[AutoPenalti]

00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot:

https://s26.postimg.org/6nept0jk9/11_L_tracks_00z.png

They need to stop posting these, these don't mean anything.

What I mean by that it is only 18Z there is no way to know what the 00Z will show, I think these are just on the climatology at that time.

Wait, huh?

[gatorcane]

The TVCN and TVCX (consensus tracks) are well east of NHC track. You got to think they move their track east at the 11pm update even if it is a little east for continuity.

[JPmia]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Iooth4s.png

Its early, but from everything we've seen with overall models trends covering 3-4 days or so, that landfall might not be too far off the actual landfall down the line. Just saying. Wait for Euro, tonight. If I had to really call out my own personal pick, I might go just a little farther up the Fl coast there, toward Ft. Myers, maybe. I think thats where model trends have generally been converging. Not quite as much of an immediate sharp turn. But a little more gradual north toward Ft. Myers.

Had to brush up on my Fl geography. Not Ft. Myers, but maybe Naples. Thats about where I see the best probabilities for eventual model consensus and landfall. Naples.

More like Everglades City, which is where Donna came in near. She nearly wiped them off the map.

[BobHarlem]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

Nail biter all the way through?

[Kat5]

00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot:

https://s26.postimg.org/6nept0jk9/11_L_tracks_00z.png

They need to stop posting these, these don't mean anything.

What I mean by that it is only 18Z there is no way to know what the 00Z will show, I think these are just on the climatology at that time.

Wait, huh?

I'm more stunned than you...

[RL3AO]

They need to stop posting these, these don't mean anything.

What I mean by that it is only 18Z there is no way to know what the 00Z will show, I think these are just on the climatology at that time.

Wait, huh?

None of the 0z models (GFS, Euro, NAM, Canandian, UKMET, COAMPS) have run yet. So what is the 0z model runs plot showing? It just shows the 18z models with the 6hr forecast (or 12z with a 12 hour forecast) as the initial point and it shows the 0z statistical models (BAMS, CLPR, TABS) which are completely useless. Those spaghetti plots show useless models and the useful models are old runs. They give a terrible sense of the uncertainly and I wish they didn't exist.

[wxman57]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

wxman, do you find the HWRF run that just went through as plausible or maybe even probable? Just thinking we might get the dirty side.

HWRF has never impressed me at all. They say it's much better (modelers), but I disagree.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Don't they usually show these models to show where some 0z runs could go? I always thought that was the case with those things? Or is it wrong?

[gatorcane]

00Z SFWMD plots: