ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

[KBBOCA]

Glad to see Mets in NYC care about Barbuda, not just how Irma will impact them.

 https://twitter.com/LeeGoldbergABC7/status/905237305442566144

[Exalt]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

Alarmingly, my Dad wanted to name me Irma (grandmother's middle name), but my Mom put the kibosh on that (thank gawd). I've hated that name ever since I heard that story. My inner voodoo priestess tells me this is not a good sign.

I remembered how eerily correct everyone's feelings were early on, how uncanny.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the CIMSS steering charts, a 960mb system will move over Cuba and remain on a WNW track into the GOM before being pulled NE (as the Euro is showing).



A sub 940mb system will generally move NW above Cuba and be pulled NE before it gets to Florida (GFS solution).

[johngaltfla]

Donna leveled the island of Anguilla before hitting FL.. After that storm they would only build with concrete and concrete block. I don't even know if that will be enough for what Irma will bring overnight tonight.

For those wondering about the "Donna" references (I wasn't alive then) my parents told me the following story:

The wind and rain was so intense in Sarasota that the stucco was shredded off the house and pebbles cracked some of the exposed concrete block. It was raining so hard they could see the outline of the concrete block through the drywall in their living room as the storm approached from the south.

I'm a long time resident in and out of Sarasota. If this parallels that storm but as a Cat 4+, I'm gone.

I can rebuild my home.

I can not stitch my body parts back together.

Don't be a hero.

Sadly, I think you're right. It's one of the islands I didn't get to sail to (I'm a BVI guy) but dangit, it was on my list. Everyone in its path is in my prayers.

[Crackbone]

I think a lot of the 'fear' is due to the proliferation of real time information. People get scared about things that might not even affect them. Certainly some people will be very badly affected by this one, but many will not, or to a far lesser degree.

In past years there was far less information so readily available so people didn't have day to build up their stress levels. It's a double edges sword. The information is necessary to help protect and warn people, but it also scares people.

Leaving and getting it wrong is better than staying and getting it wrong.

The amount of panic that’s going to set in down here once the NHC gives a reasonable impact point might not allow for you to get out. I’ve already seen folks fighting over propane and fuel, and Irma’s not due for another 4-5 Days at the earliest.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hopefully this time tomorrow the path will be locked down,

The path will not be locked down tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after. These paths are fluid and ever changing. You may find this thing coming across FL or going to Mobile. Nobody knows yet.

[RL3AO]

Feeling a little nostalgic for all those "season cancelled" posts right about now. That's all.

Me too. Early August was a fun time when the 2013 comparisons were still going strong.

[KBBOCA]

Levi's latest update:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... -antilles/

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905238195566252032

[AdamFirst]

Gassed up earlier today in Port Saint Lucie. $2.85 a gallon at the station I stopped at. Plan is to venture out sometime tomorrow morning to gas up various containers in the garage. Got a 5 gallon can and 3 or 4 1 gallon ones. Bad week for gas to get over $2.50 again

Looking like I'm riding out this storm here in PSL. Don't have any other place to go. The angle of approach from South to North is basically a no go for evac. Not like Matthew where I knew Broward would be relatively safe from potential hurricane conditions.

[jdjaguar]

Just gassed up truck, went to Home Depot and got lucky as they had just dropped pallet of gas containers and generators
( gone in 20 minutes)

Picked up bucket construction screws, drill bits, xtra drill battery, d-batteries, 2 flats water

Plywood getting dropped tomorrow.

Plan is to board house tomorrow, leave area and head to Atlanta Thursday pm

Feasible?

Yes its feasible but if you're in Jville why not wait until you see the situation friday afternoon? You have time. Why spend extra money and clog roads until you see whats up? You already have the supplies. Besides you might consider west on I-10 a better escape over north. This gal as of now isn't going to get much farther west than the big bend. Mobile or Montgomery might be better. See how it plays out.

I have considered that as well. Have lodging in Atlanta, but plans are, like the models, fluid

[Kingarabian]

Feeling a little nostalgic for all those "season cancelled" posts right about now. That's all.

Me too. Early August was a fun time when the 2013 comparisons were still going strong.

We should have a separate thread for this, but why in the world is July -> August 15th a graveyard in the Atlantic...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060117
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 23 20170906
010830 1716N 06040W 6969 02415 9144 +206 +085 017004 009 029 001 00
010900 1716N 06044W 6971 02410 9147 +206 +092 346016 019 031 003 03
010930 1717N 06045W 6960 02431 9163 +195 +099 015021 023 /// /// 03
011000 1719N 06045W 6964 02423 9164 +191 +105 067023 026 037 002 00
011030 1720N 06043W 6969 02425 9180 +178 +111 081027 029 040 003 00
011100 1721N 06042W 6975 02432 9187 +179 +116 083035 038 040 003 03
011130 1720N 06041W 6969 02429 9157 +207 +117 083025 032 /// /// 03
011200 1719N 06041W 6976 02411 9149 +206 +118 084017 023 029 002 03
011230 1717N 06042W 6963 02420 9155 +193 +121 063011 015 030 002 00
011300 1716N 06044W 6967 02420 9156 +197 +124 338014 022 032 003 00
011330 1715N 06045W 6971 02428 9177 +189 +126 314037 045 049 004 00
011400 1713N 06046W 6973 02454 9218 +173 +129 308062 071 065 004 03
011430 1712N 06047W 6981 02482 9283 +144 +132 305090 097 129 000 03
011500 1711N 06048W 6961 02557 9354 +132 //// 302104 109 141 012 05
011530 1710N 06049W 6966 02605 9430 +127 +127 307121 132 145 016 00
011600 1709N 06050W 6983 02644 9498 +123 +123 313132 137 140 046 03
011630 1708N 06051W 6947 02747 9582 +113 +113 315129 133 114 043 03
011700 1707N 06052W 6979 02762 9638 +105 //// 313120 125 114 040 01
011730 1706N 06053W 6968 02811 9667 +107 +104 312111 116 109 021 00
011800 1705N 06055W 6964 02853 9672 +126 +096 315105 109 098 008 00
$$
;

137 kt FL, 145 kt SFMR this pass.

[WX5DBZ]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

I am unsure of exactly how "backup" works for the NHC, but it would most likely be just all hands on deck at the NHC just for the fact of traveling from home to office. Usually people will get TDY to an office to help, but people USUALLY don't leave their duty station to perform the same duties at another even during something such as this. Comms are MUCH better than they were during say Katrina, but they are still able to go out. The building at NHC is built for riding out very strong storms anyway.

[mph101]

Woke up this morning.
Did not like what I saw.
I didn't even want to know what direction it's coming from, or which model is better, or whether it will be 20-30 miles this way or that way.
Decided to get in car with my pet, and drive out of town.
Kept Driving, now I am in Atlanta, where I assume it will be tolerable.
btw, the traffic from Melbourne to Atlanta was very light indeed, only took 6 hours. no problem getting gasoline either.

If you are in the southern half of Fl right now I would say now is the time to stop looking at model runs, and reading S2K forums.
Just get in the car and go! Irma is only moving @ <20 mph, which you can very easily outrun, if you don't wait too long.
There seems to be an abundance of hotel rooms available. I am practically the only one at this particular hotel right now.
I have a feeling that thousands of people have booked, double booked, and quadruple booked rooms at various places because of the uncertainty. This is a real problem because others will not be able to reserve rooms, so please cancel your reservations as soon as you decide what to do.
But the time to decide is now!
And please be courteous, civil, & respectful to your fellow Irma evacuee. It really would be a shame to have empty hotel rooms during
such a serious event.

You do realise a large portion of the population just can't get in the car and cruise 450 miles away for a week in advance of a weather event even if its 100% going to happen. This is not s 100%. But good for you and I hope you enjoy your vacation. For myself I will try to pay my power bill tomorrow and watch the storm.

[hohnywx]

Glad to see Mets in NYC care about Barbuda, not just how Irma will impact them.

 https://twitter.com/LeeGoldbergABC7/status/905237305442566144

Lee Goldberg is one of the best...glad to have him up here!

[RL3AO]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

I am unsure of exactly how "backup" works for the NHC, but it would most likely be just all hands on deck at the NHC just for the fact of traveling from home to office. Usually people will get TDY to an office to help, but people USUALLY don't leave their duty station to perform the same duties at another even during something such as this. Comms are MUCH better than they were during say Katrina, but they are still able to go out. The building at NHC is built for riding out very strong storms anyway.

They may send a few forecasters to WPC for continuity, but the NHC building and communications are built for a cat 5.

[bob rulz]

Are there any weather cams on Barbuda?

[floridasun78]

here other ham oprer for hurr report from affect area it call Echolink node 7203 Hurricane Irma VOIP net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEd-Mh5hK2c

[utweather]

Just gassed up truck, went to Home Depot and got lucky as they had just dropped pallet of gas containers and generators
( gone in 20 minutes)

Picked up bucket construction screws, drill bits, xtra drill battery, d-batteries, 2 flats water

Plywood getting dropped tomorrow.

Plan is to board house tomorrow, leave area and head to Atlanta Thursday pm

Feasible?

Feasible, sure, but we are still far from knowing what areas as far north as Jacksonville might face. We're another day or two from figuring that out.

Understand. Hopefully this time tomorrow the path will be locked down, and I can make the final well- informed decision about staying or getting myself and my family out of harms way. in the meantime it helps settle me to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Like others who have posted, been down here for over 40 years, this one feels different, this one has me rattled, to be honest.

Add to the mix, is my mom in vero beach on the barrier island, who is being stubborn.

Can I possibly have enough time to go down there and extract her? And prepare my own home, And not get caught in a parking lot on 95 north?

This is a logistical nightmare

Not sure about the traffic, could be really bad but as long as you got the gas and patience you have time.