ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tgenius]

So I can't leave, and though my house has accordion shutters and a hurricane rated garage door, what is the likelyhood of a roof going? In a cat5 (I remember andrew) roofs went pretty much everywhere.

[EquusStorm]

Gatlinburg having been mentioned, I'm quite concerned about the potential impact at the national park in TN/NC; if the storm moves across central NC like some ensemble paths suspect, there would be a good bit of destructive wind there in the higher elevations. It is a gorgeous area. I know that Opal in 95 caused some pretty significant tree damage, knocking the top off the tallest tree east of the Rockies (was the only 200 foot tall tree on this half of the continent)

What are soil conditions like there? I remember that area having bad wildfires not too long ago, and if the vegetation hasn't grown back much since then, would there be a tendency toward landslide/mudslide if rain amounts were high?

I know they seeded grass over a lot of the burned areas, especially near the roads, but there is a LOT of burned landscape and I'm quite sure a very westward shift would create problems if that also brought a lot of rainfall at once. I can't recall what their drought situation is or if they still have one, but if they were to have a major landslide risk, this would be the time for it, as the regrowth would only have one growing season to have stabilized the soil. Hopefully it will be far enough east to not cause problems with that, though.

[RL3AO]

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

Wow...

[NDG]

Weather starting to go downhill in Aruba and Barbuda.

Antigua. Aruba is in the southern Caribbean.

I keep getting those As named Islands confused.

[Bamagirl2408]

Rick Nabb on the TWC just said little change to 11pm forecast. Says most new data will be in 5am update and if any track changes likely then. Threw out the 3 scenarios. Rides bottom of cone becomes weaker but larger storm in GOm when emerges, up middle to forecast points and rides peninsula or goes east as GFS suggest to east. Is not sold on anyone scenario but update is finally going WNW

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060237
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 31 20170906
022830 1845N 06139W 6969 03151 0034 +108 +062 076071 072 045 002 00
022900 1845N 06141W 6967 03156 0035 +108 +062 075070 071 044 002 00
022930 1845N 06144W 6967 03156 0033 +107 +063 075071 071 043 002 00
023000 1845N 06146W 6967 03157 0038 +105 +064 076072 073 042 001 00
023030 1845N 06149W 6963 03159 0033 +107 +065 075071 072 041 002 00
023100 1845N 06151W 6970 03152 0033 +109 +066 075072 072 042 003 00
023130 1845N 06154W 6967 03157 0042 +105 +067 073071 072 044 002 00
023200 1845N 06156W 6967 03159 0055 +096 +068 070072 072 043 001 00
023230 1845N 06159W 6967 03163 0062 +093 +069 066070 072 042 001 00
023300 1845N 06201W 6969 03161 0066 +090 +069 067070 072 042 002 00
023330 1845N 06203W 6970 03161 0069 +088 +070 068069 070 042 002 00
023400 1845N 06206W 6966 03167 0073 +085 +070 068070 070 041 002 00
023430 1845N 06208W 6969 03163 0075 +085 +071 068068 070 041 002 00
023500 1845N 06211W 6965 03168 0076 +084 +071 068068 068 041 003 00
023530 1845N 06213W 6970 03162 0075 +086 +070 070068 068 042 002 00
023600 1845N 06216W 6962 03179 0068 +093 +068 068066 067 041 001 00
023630 1845N 06218W 6968 03167 0064 +099 +066 070065 066 041 001 00
023700 1845N 06220W 6969 03170 0070 +096 +065 067064 064 039 002 03
023730 1843N 06222W 6961 03186 0074 +095 +065 068061 063 /// /// 03
023800 1842N 06222W 6967 03173 0069 +095 +065 070059 060 036 003 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

White Bay, Jost Van Dyke in the British Virgin Islands - Live from the Soggy Dollar Bar

[you tube5]https://youtu.be/IjGdi7z_B4U[/youtube5]

Links to either of the web cams you posted?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjGdi7z_B4U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-GpHPkBoM

[johngaltfla]

White Bay, Jost Van Dyke in the British Virgin Islands - Live from the Soggy Dollar Bar



Link: https://youtu.be/IjGdi7z_B4U

Sigh.

Glad I got all the t-shirts and hangovers I wanted there this summer.

I love that place. And all the other places in White Bay.

JVD is full of great people and staying on the island really was nice.

Sadly I think that will be it for a long, long time.

Godspeed tot he BVI and USVI also.

[meriland29]

You can see the two eyewalls merging. Only the NE side shows a double wind maxima now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJAcFluXYAQIsMg.jpg

What does that mean exactly though for the cane ?

[Aric Dunn]

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

Wow...

umm most of those islands are not even 20 feet above sea level.. ..

[La Sirena]

So I can't leave, and though my house has accordion shutters and a hurricane rated garage door, what is the likelyhood of a roof going? In a cat5 (I remember andrew) roofs went pretty much everywhere.

You have hurricane strapping on your roof, right? I think they're required now.

[johngaltfla]

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

Wow...

And that does not include wave height.

Ugh.

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060236
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an
extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports
from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this
morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled
off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current
intensity remains at 160 kt. The Meteo-France radar imagery
suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the
aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall
replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt
additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,
Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next
few days.

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Seems the NHC is leaning with the Euro

[johngaltfla]

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

Wow...

umm most of those islands are not even 20 feet above sea level.. ..

Yup. I stayed at White Bay Villas this summer and 20+feet of surge and waves is halfway up the hill where we stayed. Sigh.

[caneseddy]

NHC track identical to the Euro run, without the interaction with Cuba. has it at 25.0 and 81.5 in 120 hours

[NDG]

Automated C-Man station in Barbuda.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9

[WX5DBZ]

So I can't leave, and though my house has accordion shutters and a hurricane rated garage door, what is the likelyhood of a roof going? In a cat5 (I remember andrew) roofs went pretty much everywhere.

No-one can say for certain whether a roof will or will not against a strong storm as there are many things that can happen, but if memory serves correct one of the reasons roofs went everywhere during Andrew was the lack of hurricane straps on roof joists. That is code now for hurricane prone areas and may be because of Andrew. As long as it was built correctly and well it should at least have a fighting chance.

[meriland29]

The NHC predicts it will only decrease in strength from now on out and fall into the low 140's before it reaches (if it reaches) the US. I am not entirely sure how much faith to put into that?

[TheStormExpert]

Cone shifts north and east some.

[Aric Dunn]

So I can't leave, and though my house has accordion shutters and a hurricane rated garage door, what is the likelyhood of a roof going? In a cat5 (I remember andrew) roofs went pretty much everywhere.

No-one can say for certain whether a roof will or will not against a strong storm as there are many things that can happen, but if memory serves correct one of the reasons roofs went everywhere during Andrew was the lack of hurricane straps on roof joists. That is code now for hurricane prone areas and may be because of Andrew. As long as it was built correctly and well it should at least have a fighting chance.

biggest thing is not letting the wind in...