ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

108 hours, drastic turn N, however still very much south and west of 18z

[MatthewsRevenge]

Irma not as east in this run on GFS, still have the eye clipping SE FL. Hr. 144 of course makes the difference but little close to S FL this run than the 18z GFS had it (which was not at FL at all, I think). Definitely some errors associated with the 18z run.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like passing Florida to the East at 108 hours, but much closer to the SE FL than the 18z run, and still way too close for comfort.

[caneman]

Here’s an example of the key players.

You're not gonna let that dog lay? It's pretty clear GFS has trended West

I’m pointing out what th model is showing. I never said this run would trend further east. I find it helpful to point out what the key players are to watch in subsequent runs. If you compare this to previous runs you will see that the shortwave is stronger and the trough hanging back more. It doesn’t necessarily mean a more east track but those are the key components to track.

You've been trying to sell an East idea all along. In fact projected this run would be East and that Euro would follow. It doesn't really matter what the GFS pattern is showing. It doesn't mean it's synoptic idea is right or precise. In fact, it's likely not right based on IRMA performance verifications. I appreciate your posts, your obviously very knowledgeable, however, GFS hasn't been verifying well. A 60 mile swing is,large for a 6 hour run so therefore should be discounted

[Vdogg]

108 hours, drastic turn N

You're not kidding, that was pretty much a 90° right angle turn. Wow.

[MatthewsRevenge]

NNW at Hr. 144, if it continues on this path, Georgia/South Carolina could be hit. Doesn't seem to be going NE.

[AutoPenalti]

108 hours, drastic turn N

You're not kidding, that was pretty much a 90° right angle turn. Wow.

I don't know if I can agree with that angle of attack. I can maybe presume that more West shifts are coming from GFS?

[Blown Away]

00z GFS 120 hours... @50 miles SW of 18z... Just off shore WPB moving NNW

[pokkeherrie]

Pretty sharp turn. Either way, we will be hit with feeder bands for 12+ hours. Plenty of time to do damage to us. Looks like the eyewall is grazing up to I-95 according to that? Can anyone confirm with a zoom?

[meriland29]

still very much west and south of 18z, pretty much will be like this the whole time..

[WeatherLovingDoc]

deleted sorry, wrong time/photo. Mods, please remove.

[meriland29]

I think this may hit GA and SC this run instead of NC and SC like the last run.

[Vdogg]

Oh my, hour 136

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=156

This takes me to an image of 18z, not the current run.

[MatthewsRevenge]

GA and SC definitely getting hit in this GFS run.

[meriland29]

I feel like GFS is slowly correcting itself from 18z, we will see. But Euro will be interesting tonight. Very important


hr132

[Ken711]

Pressure 896 @ Hr 132.

[otowntiger]

still very much west and south of 18z, pretty much will be like this the whole time..

Looks to be due north at that point and cannot really call it landfall in Fl on this run- but somewhat of a shift back west from the last run.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS 132 Hours... Moving NNW just off Florida/Daytona Beach... @84 miles SW of 18z, big jump back W...

[Joe Snow]

Oh my, hour 132

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=156

Is this the 18z?

[txwatcher91]

You're not gonna let that dog lay? It's pretty clear GFS has trended West

I’m pointing out what th model is showing. I never said this run would trend further east. I find it helpful to point out what the key players are to watch in subsequent runs. If you compare this to previous runs you will see that the shortwave is stronger and the trough hanging back more. It doesn’t necessarily mean a more east track but those are the key components to track.

You've been trying to sell an East idea all along. In fact projected this run would be East and that Euro would follow. It doesn't really matter what the GFS pattern is showing. It's doesn't mean it's idea is right or precise. In fact, it's likely not right based on IRMA performance verifications

I mentioned I expected other models to trend east tonight, we will see if they in fact do. I welcome your analysis as to what the Euro shows different, and why you think it’s right given the synoptic setup. The Euro was also a far west outlier compared with its mean and has shifted east during its 00z cycles and west during 12z cycles. Here’s the Euro mean which agrees quite well with the GFS and it’s ensembles.