ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

late september 11th, SC hit

[MatthewsRevenge]

Looks like it pushes east closer to Wilmington lol

I mean I get that they are predicting it due to Irma wobbling and making new eyes but nah... GFS might go west once again on 06z (remains to be seen).

[Ken711]

late september 11th, SC hit

Jose lurking close behind.

[Vdogg]

Ouch. This one's a bad day for GA, the Carolinas, and Virginia.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

[MatthewsRevenge]

Eye right on South Carolina. Still moving NW it looks?

[Ken711]

Eye right on South Carolina. Still moving NW it looks?

Looks due N.

[meriland29]

Eye right on South Carolina. Still moving NW it looks?

[lando]

Can we get the U.K. Plots pls

[Vdogg]

Oh my, hour 132

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=156

Is this the 18z?

Yes. Not the current run.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Eye right on South Carolina. Still moving NW it looks?

Looks due N.

Yeah it definitely looks like it's due N. Lemme guess: a trough?

[FixySLN]

NE if anything after landfall in Ga/SC

[MatthewsRevenge]

Can we get the U.K. Plots pls

Alyono posted them. Scroll up.

[lando]

Can we get the U.K. Plots pls

Alyono posted them. Scroll up.

Sorry to say I meant plotted out!

[Bocadude85]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

That's a decent shift west...looks like a landfall in palm beach county

[MatthewsRevenge]

GFS has been all over the world in their predictions. They are so dependent on troughs pushing it north... Euro is looking at Irma closer than GFS is.

[txwatcher91]

Well FWIW, the CMC is wayyyy east this run. Off the East coast of Florida similar to the GFS.

[PTPatrick]

Can we get the U.K. Plots pls

Alyono posted them. Scroll up.

Sorry to say I meant plotted out!

If you plot the points it looks like landfall in palm beach but really scrapes coast thru Jupiter and the toward st Augustine.

[Vdogg]

GFS has been all over the world in their predictions. They are so dependent on troughs pushing it north... Euro is looking at Irma closer than GFS is.

The Euro has been all over the coast too. Both models have had trouble locking down the storm after 5 days.

[USTropics]

Can we get the U.K. Plots pls

Alyono posted them. Scroll up.

Sorry to say I meant plotted out!