ATL: IRMA - Models

[joey]

Well FWIW, the CMC is wayyyy east this run. Off the East coast of Florida similar to the GFS.

moving nnw

[caneman]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

Is that a landfall? Never mind West Palm landfall? Little further West for UKMET it looks like.

[caneseddy]

Alyono posted them. Scroll up.

Sorry to say I meant plotted out!

More west shift and not as much interaction with Cuba as prior runs..so much for the east trend being mentioned earlier tonight

[lando]

Thank you for plotting ukm.... looks pretty realistic and I guess I'm getting gas here in Jax tomorrow..: if it stayed over the Gulf Stream I am not to confident it would weaken much before putting me in the NE quad

[txwatcher91]

For those interested, here is why the CMC shifted east so dramatically. It’s a combination of a slightly weaker ridge that breaks down faster due to the stronger shortwave. It’s similar to the GFS and NAM now.

Old run, notice the weak energy.


New run, energy much stronger and opens a weakness for Irma to the north.

[MatthewsRevenge]

This is why NHC is not gonna move the cone just yet:



UKMet's gonna back to the west hitting Florida. Also check some models shifting back west of Central NC once again. I imagine GFS' models will shift back west too since they have it around southern NC as a landfall lol

[caneman]

CMC has been a complete disaster with Irma. Not even worth posting IMO.

[Vdogg]

CMC just recurved OTS. That's a drastic difference from it's previous run. Not sure I'm buying.

[Alyono]

Canadian appears to miss the coast entirely. So it goes from the middle of the Gulf to missing the coast entirely within a day...

ok...

[PTPatrick]

I find it interesting that the ukmet actually sees the sharp north turn and the bends it back northwest toward the end of the run...gfs does the same thing but later in the run over SC. At the same time frame of 144...so uk met is slower

[USTropics]

ECMWF and UKMET have been out performing the GFS in both the 500mb height AC score as well as positional error in relation to Irma.

[MatthewsRevenge]

CMC just recurved OTS. That's a drastic difference from it's previous run. Not sure I'm buying.

CMC has always been an outlier.

[pokkeherrie]

Irma is really liking WPB in some of these runs. Hope she gets a different idea.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Euro comes in an hour and you know their tracking is gonna last a while until 3 or something.

[txwatcher91]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

[ALhurricane]

CMC has been a complete disaster with Irma. Not even worth posting IMO.

CMC is just a complete disaster period.

[rickybobby]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

Wesh 2 thinks 2 things can happen. It goes up the spine of Florida or stays off coast.

[PTPatrick]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

Euro may well stay over the keys and Monroe county and that would still create a narrow landfall zone 5 days out...middle keys to just barely miss off palm beach. Don't necessarily expect a lot of clarity or narrowing the cone with this next run. THe models are struggling with the angle of the right turn and lots of factors will be at play... We need more time. Some get to the same places a different path which is hardly reliable eithe. Euro may come east. I'm just not betting on a big enough swing to make southeast Florida feel better or worse

[MatthewsRevenge]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

UKMet just moved slightly west as did GFS so I doubt that.

[txwatcher91]

CMC has been a complete disaster with Irma. Not even worth posting IMO.

CMC is just a complete disaster period.

Yes it is. At least it’s not in the GOM hitting the FL panhandle anymore