ATL: IRMA - Models

[stormlover2013]

Friday we will know what's going to happen

[caneman]

I think they're zoning in on tip of Florida and fully expect the GFS to continue a westward shift and the Euro to come East some. Well see.

[BobHarlem]

Friday we will know what's going to happen

Whenever the turn north happens is we'll know know (maybe saturday)

[MatthewsRevenge]

The split could be that Irma comes through FL's spine and continues northward through Georgia next in the path... that is if Euro is expected to shift slightly east on 00z.

[txwatcher91]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

UKMet just moved slightly west as did GFS so I doubt that.

The UK shifted north a good bit. The prior run had it over Cuba for awhile before turning north. It finally has this north of Cuba with the closest approach being the southern eyewall before the north turn. I expect the Euro will follow this trend as well and have an east coast of FL track. That would bring it in line with it’s ensembles and other models which are consolidating on this area tonight.

[NYR__1994]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

UKMet just moved slightly west as did GFS so I doubt that.

On almost identical tracks. Maybe a 30-50 mile difference.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

[MatthewsRevenge]

OK, we'll see. But if Euro remains west...

[MatthewsRevenge]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

Myrtle Beach is too far east. Euro might have it around Charleston if Euro was to nudge east. You're thinking Euro will have a sudden NE shift.

[birddogsc]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

That would be a shift of several hundred miles. With the UK and GFS moving east, I don't see the EURO shifting that far. However, I would not be surprised by an east shift in the next EURO run.

[NFLnut]

This got lost in one of the models being posted shortly after wards (the NERVE!). Thought I'd post it again now what everyone is talking about staying up for the ECMWF and I'm still confused about this:

Don't make me leave the group. (Probably) Stupid question: The https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ states "The ECMWF Is Delayed ~12hr." This totally confuses me because I know that a lot of people here say they're going to stay up til 1:30 - 2:00 am each night to catch the newest ECMWF output. So, are we actually waiting for the 12z from the day before?!

[MatthewsRevenge]

^ The map makes it look like Irma is south of PR.

[caneseddy]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

That would be a shift of several hundred miles. With the UK and GFS moving east, I don't see the EURO shifting that far. However, I would not be surprised by an east shift in the next EURO run.

Actually the UKMET and GFS shifted slightly west closer to Florida than the earlier runs. Euro will shift east I believe but not a huge shift..I think the models are starting to consolidate on the general area and shifts from now on, if any, will be slight....that is unless CMC swings back to the Gulf

[tcast305]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

What is your reasoning for this? GFS has just shifted west, why would the ECMWF go pass the GFS which is known to over do its right basis.

Thanks.

[sponger]

The storm surge will be a huge problem if GFS verifies. It may not be perpendicular but bad enough, flooding the coast all the way to Fernandina. Especially with 25 foot surf coming in on top.

[USTropics]

This got lost in one of the models being posted shortly after wards (the NERVE!). Thought I'd post it again now what everyone is talking about staying up for the ECMWF and I'm still confused about this:

Don't make me leave the group. (Probably) Stupid question: The https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ states "The ECMWF Is Delayed ~12hr." This totally confuses me because I know that a lot of people here say they're going to stay up til 1:30 - 2:00 am each night to catch the newest ECMWF output. So, are we actually waiting for the 12z from the day before?!

The 00z ECMWF run will start around 1:50am when the public data is released here: ftp://data-portal.ecmwf.int/

It appears RUC has a 12 hour delay from the release of the ECMWF to the creation of their products.

[AdamFirst]

I've seen repeated runs for four days now from a myriad of models bringing monsters to Peninsular Florida.

I think we've reached a consensus on that?

It just depends on where exactly it'll be...

[TheDreamTraveler]

This got lost in one of the models being posted shortly after wards (the NERVE!). Thought I'd post it again now what everyone is talking about staying up for the ECMWF and I'm still confused about this:

Don't make me leave the group. (Probably) Stupid question: The https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ states "The ECMWF Is Delayed ~12hr." This totally confuses me because I know that a lot of people here say they're going to stay up til 1:30 - 2:00 am each night to catch the newest ECMWF output. So, are we actually waiting for the 12z from the day before?!

The ECMWF isn't available to the public until a few hours later. I'm pretty sure that's why it's labeled like that on their site.

[WPBGator]

00Z HWRF looks substantially North and a bit slower than 18Z through 60 hours

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/905281735272914946