ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7761 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:16 am

tcast305 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.


What is your reasoning for this? GFS has just shifted west, why would the ECMWF go pass the GFS which is known to over do its right basis.

Thanks.


The storm looks to be moving a little further north of what NHC thought IMHO. Also, ECMWF has overdone the ridges lately. I could be wrong, and it is a mix of gut feeling and known model bias. I pray and hope I am wrong. We do not need that type of storm. Can the CMC be right for once? PLEASE!
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7762 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:21 am

Iam thinking the EURO solution will unfortunately be closer to verify by the end of this critical 120 hour period. I think the ridging currently in place will be strong enough to steer Irma to at least 80 degrees Longitude or so before the northward turn . I believe more and more that Irma will come up through the Florida Keys, after scraping the coast of Cuba near Havana, and move north right up the spine of the peninsula. I think the ridge will build down from the Northeast U.S. to force Irma in time to move on a N/NW header thereafter.

This is my thinking. This is not an official forecast of course.

Point of the matter is that where Irma's eyewall will make landfall wherever that may be because if and when landfall occurs, the likely catastrophic damage is going to ensue and the worst scenario imaginable!! Plus, Irma will be so massive in size that her wind field near the end of the current 120 hour forecast cycle is going to bring tropical storm and hurricane winds well away from her center. She does not have to make a landfall for major impacts in this situation. So many people unfortunately stand to potentially be impacted by this monster storm.

Please prepare completely NOW folks ahead of this monster!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
birddogsc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:09 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7763 Postby birddogsc » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:22 am

caneseddy wrote:
birddogsc wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.


That would be a shift of several hundred miles. With the UK and GFS moving east, I don't see the EURO shifting that far. However, I would not be surprised by an east shift in the next EURO run.


Actually the UKMET and GFS shifted slightly west closer to Florida than the earlier runs. Euro will shift east I believe but not a huge shift..I think the models are starting to consolidate on the general area and shifts from now on, if any, will be slight....that is unless CMC swings back to the Gulf :P


Thanks... I flipped my cardinal directions!

Yeah, the CMC is likely to send it anywhere but were it actually ends up.

Gonzo will be airborne twice tomorrow. That signals to me that our friends at the NHC really want better data about that oceanic high.
0 likes   

M3gaMatch
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:32 pm
Location: Queensland, Australia

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7764 Postby M3gaMatch » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:23 am

HWRF @ 81hrs slightly slower this run, very similar to 18z otherwise and heading WNW. Still a full degree north than 12z though.
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7765 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:24 am

HWRF at 81 hours is north of Cuba getting ready to pass south of Andros Island...may be another Florida Keys landfall
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7766 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:25 am

HWRF is a bit north of its previous run. I think the overall common theme in tonight’s runs is the center stays further north more over the Bahamas instead of diving wsw into Cuba. The UK still brings it pretty close or just over the edge briefly but doesn’t traverse it across a good chunk of the area. This is very concerning as it would give Irma more time over water with less disruption from land.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7767 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:28 am

HMON landfall at Key Largo...eye heading north right through Miami-Dade County, then heads up the coast and exits north of Cape Canaveral...identical to the GFS from several runs ago.
Last edited by caneseddy on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7768 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:29 am

Any reason why the 00z GEFS Ensembles haven't loaded yet on Tropical Tidbits?
0 likes   

User avatar
Shawee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:14 am
Location: New Orleans
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7769 Postby Shawee » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:32 am

Yes, but unfortunately the once they come off of cuba with these temps, the mountain effect doesn't seem to last long. Dry air entrainment notwithstanding
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7770 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:34 am

00z GEFS Ensembles trending east of Florida.

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7771 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:34 am

HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7772 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:39 am

caneseddy wrote:HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys
also seems to be moving more north at that point
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7773 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:39 am

caneseddy wrote:HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys

Turn has begun @96hrs., looks like it'll miss Florida to the east.
0 likes   

User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7774 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:40 am

Think it is trending East. Wouldn't suprise me...the trough is coming down quick...it is the New Orleans area now. It's a wide trough...just getting here.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7775 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:43 am

HWRF shifted from 81w to about 78.3w for the same hour. A pretty big east shift. Looks like it’ll miss Florida to the east now.
0 likes   

brghteys1216
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 118
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7776 Postby brghteys1216 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:46 am

Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
I'm just an enthusiast and weather fan and any comments I make are just my opinion and are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7777 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:48 am

Euro running


Image
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7778 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:48 am

HMON shifts east a tad as well with the landfall point on South Florida. Cuba is looking less likely. Euro will be telling.
1 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7779 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:49 am

brghteys1216 wrote:Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.


The HWRF has Irma moving drastically slower on the 0z run vs the 18z run.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7780 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:49 am

brghteys1216 wrote:Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.


Even with that shift east, South Florida gets Cat 1 winds
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest