ATL: IRMA - Models

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sponger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7801 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:10 am

Jose looks close enough to impact Irma does it not?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7802 Postby WeatherHoon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:12 am

ridge looks like it's breaking down a little faster here like the gfs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7803 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:12 am

Ridge is much weaker at 72 and looks like it will be opening a weakness up by the next frame. Decent shift north. Doesn’t run over Cuba yet through hour 72. May turn north soon and have a track similar to the UK and GFS...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7804 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:12 am

Wow, that trough just weakens like nothing.

Next frame or two is crucial I feel.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7805 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:12 am

Euro moves a bit north in this run. Hr. 96 is gonna be either be the turning point or a straight up landfall in S FL. No trough either.
Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7806 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:13 am

meriland29 wrote:Significantly weakened trough

Yes. Ridge holding on pretty good in that frame
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7807 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:15 am

hour 96

Image
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7808 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:16 am

So about that turn east?

Image

Not saying it won't but it don't seem like it will here.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7809 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 am

Lane has opened up hour 96 for this to go N along th east coast of FL. Should be similar to UK and GFS with ast coast of Florida landfall/western eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7810 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 am

meriland29 wrote:hour 96

Image

I'm going to say this but similar to the 12z right up the spine from the west coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7811 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 am

Still moving WNW.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7812 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 am

is moving NW, more-so WNW, no sharp northern turn yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7813 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:18 am

MatthewsRevenge wrote:So about that turn east?

Image

Not saying it won't but it don't seem like it will here.


Yes should be turning and you’ll see a big jump N next frame most likely. See the red on either side? That’s the ridging and in between, the orange, is the weakness that this pulls N into.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7814 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:18 am

txwatcher91 wrote:Lane has opened up hour 96 for this to go N along th east coast of FL. Should be similar to UK and GFS with ast coast of Florida landfall/western eyewall.


588 contour not there, 120 probably the turn or similar to NHC cone at least
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7815 Postby M3gaMatch » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:19 am

I'd say north just off the E Florida coast next frame with that big weakness, but let's see.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7816 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:20 am

It would have to move northwest to make landfall inside FL to weaken. A 931 mb pressure hurricane is still strong as heck.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7817 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:21 am

East coast of Florida at 120
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7818 Postby fox13weather » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:21 am

Eyewall may never touch coast on this run ....
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7819 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7820 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 am

fox13weather wrote:Eyewall may never touch coast on this run ....


Nope, just a close call!
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