ATL: IRMA - Models

[MatthewsRevenge]

Irma's gone in Hr. 192. Jose backs off.

[MatthewsRevenge]

In Hr. 168, Irma seemed to move NNW in this run after coming near SC in Hr. 144. By then, the dissipating "eyewall" reaches NW NC.

[Bocadude85]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

[brghteys1216]

Euro initialized 47 MB weaker at 961. What impact does this have on the model?

[joey]

so from what i get from tonights run is that irma may slow down in speed when in the bahamas and rgive the trof a abetter chance to catch up to her but if she does not slow down she will get further west .

[sponger]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Definitely takes a wack but up the spine would be worse for Dade and Broward. Palm Beach takes the brunt, Not to bad considering.

[MatthewsRevenge]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

[joey]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

did the western eyewall touch so fl i cant tell if it did that would be be bad thanks

[USTropics]

Euro initialized 47 MB weaker at 961. What impact does this have on the model?

The high-resolution was about 20mb stronger on initialization (which yes, is still roughly 15-20mb off). However, that minimal difference shouldn't have any immediate effects on the steering.

[sponger]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

Another 30 miles East adjustment would make a huge difference. Lets all hope!

[AutoPenalti]

I probably think tomorrow morning it's up the spine again. It only takes a couple miles to make a difference. It's incredible.

[USTropics]

Someone mentioned this earlier, that because of the unique geometrical shape of Florida, just slight deviations in track guidance seem like huge shifts. In fact, a slight adjustment 50-100 miles east or west (which is well within range of the positional error of models even after 96 hours) has huge implications in impact. Makes it quite messy for evacuation procedures as well (i.e. larger area of land mass under potential threat now = more people needing to be evacuated).

[brghteys1216]

So should the storm not speed up, it would go further west?

[MatthewsRevenge]

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

did the western eyewall touch so fl i cant tell if it did that would be be bad thanks

Kind of, it's not totally offshore so you see the eyewall closing in on Miami so it's actually a similar path GFS took it on 18z.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Someone mentioned this earlier, that because of the unique geometrical shape of Florida, just slight deviations in track guidance seem like huge shifts. In fact, a slight adjustment 50-100 miles east or west (which is well within range of the positional error of models even after 96 hours) has huge implications in impact. Makes it quite messy for evacuation procedures as well (i.e. larger area of land mass under potential threat now = more people needing to be evacuated).

That's why the alert on Florida is so huge, the way the models have it spinning around Florida so far. It's almost like several tornadoes coming at once! No way it remains Cat 5 or even Cat 4 by the time it moves up N (or NW or NE?) by the trough.

[fci]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

Maybe not. It could ride up the coast 50-100 miles offshore not too unlike Matthew did.
The trend is our friend so a model run here and there doesn't assure anything but as a resident of Palm Beach County, I would be happier to see Irma to my East than the same distance to my West.

[MatthewsRevenge]

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

Maybe not. It could ride up the coast 50-100 miles offshore not too unlike Matthew did.
The trend is our friend so a model run here and there doesn't assure anything but as a resident of Palm Beach County, I would be happier to see Irma to my East than the same distance to my West.

Not if it continues to grow in size. You can still get some nasty wind gusts and rain from Irma even with the hurricane far from WPB.

[NFLnut]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

[SapphireSea]

The piece of energy that has materialized and likely going to be the factor that will turn Irma much like Matthew is leaving Alberta and ready to dive into place. Because the feature exists and movement looks pretty perfect, looks like more east shifts will materialize.

Will have to see if the trough does anything funny like lift out even further or if the short weakens / does not move as far east as fast as Irma. Pretty complicated, but I think Florida's chances are down and dropping very fast for landfall. Impacts likely less than advertised if it stays to the east. We can see the W side of the storm is not very powerful.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Euro and Navgem are actually similar to where Irma could go if the east direction sticks. Of course Navgem isn't to be trusted but for now shows an interesting path that Irma COULD possibly follow if they stick to a SC hit and then go to Western NC instead of Eastern NC as Matthew did. That said, I think Euro will shift west again after GFS and UKMet did so SC can escape a direct hit too.

I do think the cone in NHC will be widened to all over Florida by 5.