ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I guess we lost all web cams from St Barth as the western eyewall is on top of them.

[Hurrilurker]

reporting in from st maarten. house still standing. we still have electricity and internet. but storm getting heavier.

If I were you I'd get to an emergency shelter while (if) you still can. It looks horrific on St. Barts right now and you are next.

shelters are a last resort and your own place can be stronger than a shelter and making a dash for a shelter in the middle of a storm can be very dangerous..many structures including homes in the caribbean have withstood major hurricanes for years

Right, that's why I said IF (it's still safe enough). And none of these homes have seen a direct hit from a Cat-5, probably very few even from a Cat-3 or -4. When I say shelter, I mean something that is specifically built to withstand the strongest storms, if such things exist. But yes, sometimes they just call any old school or VFW hall a "shelter" when they may not be any safer than a home.

[Hurrilurker]

I guess we lost all web cams from St Barth as the western eyewall is on top of them.

St. Barth webcams still up for me (although they rebuffer frequently). Almost a total white-out with all the wind-blown water though, hard to see anything. Almost a total white-out with all the wind-blown water though, hard to see anything. All I can see is an intermittent, ghostly glimpse of that palm blowing around.

[NDG]

I haven't had time to check models thread since I got up, but here's a tweet from Maue about the 00z run of the ECMWF

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905315642928222208

Yeap, models have sped up, Miami has around 96 hrs before hurricane force winds possibly start affecting them.

[bahamaswx]

I guess we lost all web cams from St Barth as the western eyewall is on top of them.

St. Barth webcams still up for me (although they rebuffer frequently). Almost a total white-out with all the wind-blown water though, hard to see anything.

It's dead. When you refresh it just loops the last 10 seconds or so before it finally died.

[Hurrilurker]

I guess we lost all web cams from St Barth as the western eyewall is on top of them.

St. Barth webcams still up for me (although they rebuffer frequently). Almost a total white-out with all the wind-blown water though, hard to see anything.

It's dead. When you refresh it just loops the last 10 seconds or so before it finally died.

Ah, you're right. Surprised they lasted that long to be honest. Too bad we won't see it when the eye passes.

[NDG]

They move the track to the right but not as much as close to the GFS.

96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

[jlauderdal]

If I were you I'd get to an emergency shelter while (if) you still can. It looks horrific on St. Barts right now and you are next.

shelters are a last resort and your own place can be stronger than a shelter and making a dash for a shelter in the middle of a storm can be very dangerous..many structures including homes in the caribbean have withstood major hurricanes for years

Right, that's why I said IF (it's still safe enough). And none of these homes have seen a direct hit from a Cat-5, probably very few even from a Cat-3 or -4. When I say shelter, I mean something that is specifically built to withstand the strongest storms, if such things exist. But yes, sometimes they just call any old school or VFW hall a "shelter" when they may not be any safer than a home.

for sure, i remember my father in law telling us we should go to the church down the street during wilma because it would be really safe...i had to let him down easy and explain just because its a church doesnt mean its safe and besides they weren't a shelter and my florida house was built in 1966, concrete with steel mesh..good news, the church was fine in wilma and so was my house, win win

[bob rulz]

I just want to know if the palm tree makes it!

[NDG]

They move the track's center over Key Largo.

[NDG]

[msbee]

shelters here are limited and full. we have a strong house. we are boarded up.
we can go to our downstairs basement when we need to.
thanks for your concern.

[Canelaw99]

They move the track's center over Key Largo.

And awful close to my house in southern Dade! Good thing I don't focus on the center line

[jlauderdal]

They move the track to the right but not as much as close to the GFS.

96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

exactly as we thought, shocking ..so to se florida peeps, the trend is clearly in our favor so dont flip out that the core is right on us and we are on the dirty side, there was no way nhc was going to go way right offshore for reasons explained in the disco and our posts earlier...if we get a few more cycles of it offshore they will keep adjusting, the downside is we have a major hurricane on top of us in the nhc track currently...we need it to move at least 100 miles east, lets see what the modeling especially ensembles yield today

[NDG]

The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0854.shtml

[bob rulz]

5am kept it at 185mph. Has there been any evidence that it still has winds of that strength? I thought the most recent pass didn't find any winds to support that anymore, or am I wrong?

[KBBOCA]

Here's an excerpt of the 5 a.m. discussion re: South Florida, and the new forecast cone:

The initial motion is 285/14. Irma is currently being steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west-
northwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected
during the next 48-72 h. This portion of the forecast track is
little changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF
model. The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0854.shtml

[HurricaneFrances04]

They move the track to the right but not as much as close to the GFS.

96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

Not too surprised. I'm sure they want to see the trend continue, before they fall for the windshield wiper effect.

[Hurrilurker]

5am kept it at 185mph. Has there been any evidence that it still has winds of that strength? I thought the most recent pass didn't find any winds to support that anymore, or am I wrong?

Probably because the pressure is at it's all-time minimum (914), and is perhaps still falling, and still with a favorable environment ahead. When's the next recon scheduled? Seems like it's been a while.

[ncbird]

The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0854.shtml

Well looks like I am going to have to keep an eye on this eastward movement and see if it becomes a trend.