ATL: IRMA - Models

[xironman]

Nope, final landfall a touch west.

[Blown Away]

06z 132hrs... W of 00z and near GA/SC Border... Boy I'm getting uncomfortable at my home...

[brghteys1216]

We go through this with every storm. Models windshield wipe. People sound the all clear, shift back one way or the other, as the models slowly figure out the final solution. Not sure why anyone would say anything is clear or safe for Florida at this moment. That's just absurd.

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW the Euro Ensemble mean is still up the spine of Florida despite the ensembles being still spread out.

[otowntiger]

Just off shore

Im feeling much better about Florida now. Everything, except NHC official track has swung well east. They will follow but more slowly for continuity. We are now in that window where path begins solidifying. It could nudge back west but I don't think the east shifts are done, just my opinion. It think it will be similar to Matthew in terms of Florida effects except the closer path will south Florida this time and further away for north Florida..again Just my opinion but I'm liking what I'm seeing for Florida - Carolinas though is another story.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not used in this basin,the track guidance is usually good.

[brghteys1216]

So for this east trend to actually happen, the trough would need to move out faster, the shortwave would need to come down faster, Irma would need to pick up speed, and the ridge would need to weaken quicker. Is that correct?

[ronjon]

The shortwave on the 06z GFS run was a little more amplified and a little further west at 96 hrs. It then dived a little further south which resulted in a savannah landfall. Hard to believe these rather small features in the 500mb flow can steer these huge storms. This run was a tiny bit west of the 00z run. Any delay in this shortwave, even 6-12 hrs, would allow Irma to move further west before the turn north.

[TheStormExpert]

How good is the UKMET out to 4-5 days on track?

[jlauderdal]

FWIW the Euro Ensemble mean is still up the spine of Florida despite the ensembles being still spread out.

its worth alot and as long as the ensembles hold firm we are far from feeling good

[Jevo]

It's about time the person that controls the Florida shield woke up. I almost had to cancel a Disney trip. Glad to see the Euro jump on the bandwagon. Storms are exciting, but anyone wishing this monster to their doorstep needs help. I've come to enjoy things like electricity and running water. Still a few days left but it appears consensus is finally taking place. Here's to hoping OTS is in the cards.... not likely, but there is hope.

And as you can see, there was a slight shift West, undoubtedly bringing hurricane force gusts over the coast and some inland stretches with tropical storm force winds extending deep inland. The consensus doesn't finally take place based off of a few model runs. Please, no all clear sentiments based off of only a few runs.

I never mentioned Florida was in the clear, but I edited my original post in case someone comes looking to Jevo on a message board to make life and property decisions I only meant to comment on the consensus taking place, and that the shift had me feeling a little more at ease as it was my house that was in the bullseye. I routinely prothlecize that a storm is not a point on the map, but the difference between the 12z Euro and 0z Euro is life changing for people in metro Southeast Florida with this storm. If it needs to be said.... Florida is not in the clear, by no means.. Also I am going to Disney World because I am a big kid and nothing named Irma is going to keep me off 'Its a Small World'

[xironman]

So for this east trend to actually happen, the trough would need to move out faster, the short ridge would need to come down faster, Irma would need to pick up speed, and the ridge would need to weaken quicker. Is that correct?

I think you mean short wave. I like to think of it as the old problem with a train leaving Chicago and one leaving New York. The changes in speed of either one can effect how they interact. In this case if Irma was slower you would think the turn would happen further east.

[LBLCrew]

T. Storm Expert,
I'm a few miles south of you in west BOYNTON, west of the tpike. Are you planning on riding this one out at home or heading north? I know it's a highly subjective question/answer. I'm just looking for any advice, I have twin 8 y/o boys and my elderly father in law. I'm well prepped; food, water, gas, gennie, portable a/c unit, coal for the green egg.

Thinking of heading up to my sisters in Alpharetta GA early tomorrow am. I've been through a few 'canes, just not with my little guys. Don't want them to get all freaked, and keep em save of course.

Thanks for all the information from all the contributors. Very helpful.
JB

[NDG]

How good is the UKMET out to 4-5 days on track?

With Irma so far it has been better than the GFS but not as good as the Euro.

[brghteys1216]

So for this east trend to actually happen, the trough would need to move out faster, the short ridge would need to come down faster, Irma would need to pick up speed, and the ridge would need to weaken quicker. Is that correct?

I think you mean short wave. I like to think of it as the old problem with a train leaving Chicago and one leaving New York. The changes in speed of either one can effect how they interact. In this case if Irma was slower you would think the turn would happen further east.

Short Wave! I'm tired! Okay so faster means further west?

[Ken711]

Have to hand it to the much maligned GFS for sniffing out the shortwave in south Alabama yesterday that may spare Florida the worst of this monster. Still need a few more model cycles to confirm though. How often do we see the mightly Euro capitulate to the GFS 4-5 days out.

And the UKMET that was onto the Matthew track early.

[xironman]

So for this east trend to actually happen, the trough would need to move out faster, the short ridge would need to come down faster, Irma would need to pick up speed, and the ridge would need to weaken quicker. Is that correct?

I think you mean short wave. I like to think of it as the old problem with a train leaving Chicago and one leaving New York. The changes in speed of either one can effect how they interact. In this case if Irma was slower you would think the turn would happen further east.

Short Wave! I'm tired! Okay so faster means further west?

That would be my guess, others may have their own opinion. Note with this run it should have ingested real data from the pacific northwest on the energy coming from there, so in theory it should be on a bit more solid ground.

[northjaxpro]

I will say this in regards just pertaining to Irma's eyewall. The benchmark is 80 degrees longitude.for the turn.

If Irma fails to make it to that point as the north turn begins. the chances increase significantly of the Greater Miami area and the Florida peninsula.as a whole, from being spared the worst direct impacts of the eyewall itself.

Turning prior to 80 Longitude is critical for SE FL and the peninsula as a whole to help avoid the worst of the eyewall impact if the cyclone turns on due north header.

Again, I am focusing just the eyewall. Of course there will still be widespread tropical storm to hurricane winds nearest to proximity to the center die to the massive size of the cyclone as Irma passes SE FL , just that the very worst of Irma's inner core would just miss to the southeast.

I am just hanging on to any hope, and good news as I do not want anyone facing down the barrel of this monster. Praying for all potentially in this storm's path.

[Nimbus]

So for this east trend to actually happen, the trough would need to move out faster, the short ridge would need to come down faster, Irma would need to pick up speed, and the ridge would need to weaken quicker. Is that correct?

I think you mean short wave. I like to think of it as the old problem with a train leaving Chicago and one leaving New York. The changes in speed of either one can effect how they interact. In this case if Irma was slower you would think the turn would happen further east.

There are other statistical problems when trying to forecast with a trough involved, ridges can split the troughs, or they can fill which delays turns near them. So the forecast in this case is probably going to have a higher probability of error near Florida at 3 days.

Hope everybody in St Martin is hunkered down in their concrete bunkers.

[northjaxpro]

I will say this in regards just pertaining to Irma's eyewall. The benchmark is 80 degrees longitude.for the turn.

If Irma fails to make it to that point as the north turn begins. the chances increase significantly of the Greater Miami area and the Florida peninsula.as a whole, from being spared the worst direct impacts of the eyewall itself.

Turning prior to 80 Longitude is critical for SE FL and the peninsula as a whole to help avoid the worst of the eyewall impact if the cyclone turns on due north header.

Again, I am focusing just the eyewall. Of course there will still be widespread tropical storm winds and hurricane winds nearest to proximity to the center due to the massive size of the cyclone as Irma passes SE FL , just that the very worst of Irma's inner core would just miss to the southeast.

I am just hanging on to any hope, and good news as I do not want anyone facing down the barrel of this monster. Praying for all potentially in this storm's path.