ATL: IRMA - Models

[northjaxpro]

I will say this in regards just pertaining to Irma's eyewall. The benchmark is 80 degrees longitude.for the turn.

If Irma fails to make it to that point as the north turn begins. the chances increase significantly of the Greater Miami area and the Florida peninsula.as a whole, from being spared the worst direct impacts of the eyewall itself.

Turning prior to 80 Longitude is critical for SE FL and the peninsula as a whole to help avoid the worst of the eyewall impact if the cyclone turns on due north header.

Again, I am focusing just the eyewall. Of course there will still be widespread tropical storm winds and hurricane winds nearest to proximity to the center due to the massive size of the cyclone as Irma passes SE FL , just that the very worst of Irma's inner core would just miss to the southeast.

I am just hanging on to any hope, and good news as I do not want anyone facing down the barrel of this monster. Praying for all potentially in this storm's path.

[xironman]

You have to love how the GFS does a cyclonic loop with Jose and then has almost a fujiwhara effect with the remnants of Irma as the come off the coast. I wonder if they hired some of the people that worked on the CMC.

[jlauderdal]

channel 10 miami pounding the spaghettis hard this morning then they show the nhc track...im starting to think the media should just show the nhc track, explain the error rate and the cone to keep it simple. as we know the spaghettis can be very misleading and people see those today and think ok we re int he clear i will stop my preperations...the system could end up offshore sofla and by a decent amount or it could end up a direct hit, either way preps must continue

[brghteys1216]

HWRF moving a bit faster this run.

[GCANE]

COAMPS & GFS getting pretty consistent (& merging) with a run along & just offshore the Atlantic Coast of FL.
Mathew type of run.

[perk]

I know this is a models thread but I have seen some posts that are borderline irresponsible concerning the eventual path of Irma. I just saw one that almost declared that we are safe now in So FL. Please be responsible in posting.

I rarely post on this forum but CourierPR is right and it 's been occurring for a while now.

[weathaguyry]

Now if this turns North a little earlier than expected, then could this keep going north? Or would it most likely turn out to sea?

[jdjaguar]

I will say this in regards just pertaining to Irma's eyewall. The benchmark is 80 degrees longitude.for the turn.

If Irma fails to make it to that point as the north turn begins. the chances increase significantly of the Greater Miami area and the Florida peninsula.as a whole, from being spared the worst direct impacts of the eyewall itself.

Turning prior to 80 Longitude is critical for SE FL and the peninsula as a whole to help avoid the worst of the eyewall impact if the cyclone turns on due north header.

Again, I am focusing just the eyewall. Of course there will still be widespread tropical storm winds and hurricane winds nearest to proximity to the center due to the massive size of the cyclone as Irma passes SE FL , just that the very worst of Irma's inner core would just miss to the southeast.

I am just hanging on to any hope, and good news as I do not want anyone facing down the barrel of this monster. Praying for all potentially in this storm's path.

I am encouraged by the shift east in the euro. Let's see if this becomes a trend.

Personally, I'm hoping for the turn to take hold at 78.

[Steve H.]

COAMPS is in the league of the NOGAPS....wouldn't trust it. That being said, I wonder if the NHC will shift the track closer to the coast at 11am. It should be remembered that even if IRMA does take a "Matthew" track, it is larger and stronger than Matthew, and the effects will be much farther inland. Let's see how the models progress (east or west, status quo) during the day today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[StormTracker]

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

Don't they only actually move the cone at 5a/p and 11a/p?

they nudge it east, they have been on the euro all the way so they will follow suit but wont take it east of miami, last thing you want is for the models to start moving west again and have all that back and forth in the track like we do here , need to see a few more cycles and get some ensemble agreement to really think its going to our east, this is positbve unless it ends up being a direct hit coming from our south...bottom line, irma going to do what irma wants regardless of the 8 zillion models, posts, etc..continue on with your preps and dont fight over plywood

NORTH MIAMI, Fla. - A fight broke out Tuesday night at a Home Depot store in North Miami as customers sparred about plywood during Hurricane Irma preparations.

My thoughts exactly. I'm waiting on that, at least, one more east adjustment! I'll take the west-side of this storm any day, rather than a straight-up eye or NE quad hit! If you remember, this is how most of the models all started out, albeit coming into the Bahamas from a slightly different angle of approach, and then "recurving" at our front door! If and when this scenario does pan out, I'm hoping this short wave coming from Canada is strong enough to make Irma miss the Carolinas as well, and take it OTS!

[Evil Jeremy]

The eastward shift in models overnight is welcome but not enough. Hopefully they continue to shift east, but unfortunately that creates a problem for someone else up the east coast. The current GFS/ECMWF/UKMET scenario would still bring massive damage to the Florida east coast, and there's still time of course for the models to flip back west. I'm still bracing for a direct impact, only way to prepare.

[GCANE]

Assessing the best performing models for 3, 4, and 5 days out, I only found two that have a track record for Irma that falls less than 100 miles for each of these days.

Those models are ECME and ECMO.

Their forecast tracks are shown below.

Given this and what GFS with COAMPS are forecasting, it is my opinion Miami may take a direct hit or very close and Irma could then remain over the water skirting the coast of Fl.

I don't expect Irma to get close to Cuba.
She will be approaching at full steam.

I'll be zeroing in on some of the other shorter-term Mesoscale models to check forecasts for tornado impacts.
From what I have been seeing from GFS on older runs, it could be significant.

[Ken711]

When is the next UKMET run?

[brghteys1216]

Assessing the best performing models for 3, 4, and 5 days out, I only found two that have a track record for Irma that falls less than 100 miles for each of these days.

Those models are ECME and ECMO.

Their forecast tracks are shown below.

Given this and what GFS with COAMPS are forecasting, it is my opinion Miami may take a direct hit or very close and Irma could then remain over the water skirting the coast of Fl.

I don't expect Irma to get close to Cuba.
She will be approaching at full steam.

I'll be zeroing in on some of the other shorter-term Mesoscale models to check forecasts for tornado impacts.
From what I have been seeing from GFS on older runs, it could be significant.

Wow! Seeing how close these two are is impressive.

[adam0983]

I'm not buying the east shifts to much and sending this out to sea. If that happens no one will ever believe the NHC again and the panic they created for no reason would be just awful. Huge inconvenience right now for people who rely on getting gas for a living. Just crazy why people are panicking without even a hurricane watch or warning. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[AdamFirst]

When is the next UKMET run?

Sometime after noon. Usually gets in when the GFS is mid-run.

[brghteys1216]

06Z GFS Ensembles.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

Ukie showing 913??? Now I've seen everything...

(Also, uploading this for posterity's sake before it's erased by TT, it may be the lowest pressure ever predicted by a model... anyone have any counterexamples?):

[hohnywx]

I'm not buying the east shifts to much and sending this out to sea. If that happens no one will ever believe the NHC again and the panic they created for no reason would be just awful. Huge inconvenience right now for people who rely on getting gas for a living. Just crazy why people are panicking without even a hurricane watch or warning. Just an opinion not a forecast.

What shifts "out to sea"? Anything shifting east from FL is just shifting up the coast...

[NDG]

In case anybody still thinks FL is in the clear.
From the best performing model, ECMWF, in the 3-5 range so far with Irma.