ATL: IRMA - Models

[ronjon]

I'm not buying the east shifts to much and sending this out to sea. If that happens no one will ever believe the NHC again and the panic they created for no reason would be just awful. Huge inconvenience right now for people who rely on getting gas for a living. Just crazy why people are panicking without even a hurricane watch or warning. Just an opinion not a forecast.

This isn't going OTS. It might stay off the coast of Florida but the synoptic set up that is driving the north turn eventually moves the storm N-NW back into the US.

[brghteys1216]

For what its worth, HWRF is more west and faster, turned at 78 last run.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the GFS ensemble mean is focused on Andros Island and Grand Bahama. Lots of individual members clustered over FL peninsula or just offshore over gulf stream waters.

Some of the ensembles are way North and east, wondering if that may skew it a bit.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/905392260858175488

[caneman]

As expected, the Euro has shifted towards the GFS solution. The 18z GFS was too Far East but the 00z run was much closer to where it should be. UK, GFS, Euro all now agree on east Florida track. Being that this is under 100 hours from the N turn the confidence in this solution will increase quickly if we see consistency now.

Great job predicting this last night. 100 hours out though so we'll see what happens.

[tolakram]

I'm not buying the east shifts to much and sending this out to sea. If that happens no one will ever believe the NHC again and the panic they created for no reason would be just awful. Huge inconvenience right now for people who rely on getting gas for a living. Just crazy why people are panicking without even a hurricane watch or warning. Just an opinion not a forecast.

So what's your point? What panic has the NHC created by trying to correctly forecast a storm that is still 5 days away?

[NDG]

06z HWRF has to be dismissed, is right biased even this morning, it shows missing the Virgin Island completely.

[SouthDadeFish]

The fact that the models have continued to jump around so much is all the more reason to be skeptical of this potential eastern solution. I'm not saying it won't follow a more eastern track, but I am saying the models could just as easily tick back west. The Euro ensemble mean is still directly over FL. If if NHC shifts the track to the east a bit at the 11 AM advisory, S FL will still be well within the cone. Sadly, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

[brghteys1216]

06z HWRF has to be dismissed, is right biased even this morning, it shows missing the Virgin Island completely.

Maybe worth noting though that it's more W toward Florida this run.

[tolakram]

- more posts have been removed -

STICK TO MODEL RUNS and discussion about them.

We will not allow complaints about the media or what Floridians might do or anything else off topic. If you can't handle watching the models then stop, otherwise understand that models will flip around in the wind and the NHC will do their best to figure out where it might really go. Right now both west and east of Florida are in the 5 day error cone, which is exactly correct. Only the cone matters.

[tolakram]

06z HWRF has to be dismissed, is right biased even this morning, it shows missing the Virgin Island completely.

I am not seeing what you are seeing. It inits in the correct location as far as I can tell.

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF run

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM shifts back west slightly from 00Z:

[Hurricane Andrew]

Look at that right turn on the HWRF! It literally stops, and turns 80 degrees to the N.

Promets, is there any precedence for such a sharp angle?

[Palmcitycane]

New member here, my 1st post. I've been a guest and frequent visitor since 2004. I live in Martin County, FL. I just wanted to thank everyone that post the model runs, images, and explanations of the complex science I try to understand. I really can't explain how much I appreciate this website and it's members. So thank you for your efforts.

[jlauderdal]

NAVGEM shifts back west:

the track is definitely narrowing towards se florida, little west, little east, either way we are losing the battle of time and error

[Hurricane Andrew]

So did a little analysis on model pressures; no matter what the initialization pressure is, pretty much all of the models show an increase over the D1-3 period, followed be fairly significant deepening over D4-D5 up to landfall. Quite concerning...

[gatorcane]

The angle of approach for Irma is much different than Matthew as shown by current models. South Florida would get much more of this storm as it parallels the SE Florida coast or landfalls over SE Florida. We need the models to shift east more today.

[Cuda]

So did a little analysis on model pressures; no matter what the initialization pressure is, pretty much all of the models show an increase over the D1-3 period, followed be fairly significant deepening over D4-D5 up to landfall. Quite concerning...

Yep I've noticed this as well. Which has me confused, because the NHC predicts fairly significant weakening before landfall (30-40mph less than now). So why would the models show a deepening storm but NHC expect it to weaken?

[txwatcher91]

As expected, the Euro has shifted towards the GFS solution. The 18z GFS was too Far East but the 00z run was much closer to where it should be. UK, GFS, Euro all now agree on east Florida track. Being that this is under 100 hours from the N turn the confidence in this solution will increase quickly if we see consistency now.

Great job predicting this last night. 100 hours out though so we'll see what happens.

Thanks! I expect we will see some shifts west/east today with the models and the key will be to watch if they trend weaker/stronger with the Midwest energy. That's really the key player for how quickly this turns north and the ridging breaks down. How far north Irma gets today will also be key as the models with slower turns track this closer to Hispaniola/PR while the quicker turns like the GFS have this a bit further north. Hopefully those in South Florida are prepared because no matter how good a model is or the consensus, it only takes one wobble to really change things.