ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

It's quite alarming to put it mildly to see tweets supposedly of folks strolling around St. Martin/ St. Maarten looking at damage. This MUST have been in the eye as according to radar, St. Martin was still in backside of eyewall at 12:00 UTC. I fear these people thought it was over...!

 https://twitter.com/Mystic_xo/status/905399441703755778

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061224
AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 30 20170906
121430 1659N 06149W 6980 03140 0037 +108 +067 193039 040 039 001 00
121500 1700N 06147W 6974 03145 0031 +109 +060 193042 043 037 000 03
121530 1702N 06146W 6973 03018 9964 +109 +060 188044 044 /// /// 03
121600 1704N 06145W 6973 03123 0011 +108 +066 187043 044 /// /// 03
121630 1706N 06143W 6973 03148 0025 +106 +069 188044 044 /// /// 03
121700 1707N 06142W 6974 03145 0030 +106 +069 190044 044 036 000 03
121730 1709N 06141W 6978 03140 0033 +107 +065 188043 044 031 000 03
121800 1711N 06140W 6970 03150 0041 +097 +082 186045 045 030 000 01
121830 1713N 06138W 6973 03150 //// +095 //// 185044 045 031 000 05
121900 1714N 06137W 6973 03151 0048 +096 +087 181044 045 032 000 00
121930 1716N 06136W 6974 03151 0048 +098 +081 180044 044 034 000 00
122000 1718N 06135W 6974 03150 0048 +099 +082 181043 043 035 000 00
122030 1720N 06134W 6974 03153 0046 +103 +068 182044 045 036 001 03
122100 1721N 06132W 6971 03155 0049 +101 +078 183045 045 037 000 03
122130 1723N 06131W 6972 03156 0051 +100 +080 184046 047 037 000 03
122200 1725N 06130W 6973 03155 0048 +102 +085 180045 047 036 000 01
122230 1727N 06129W 6976 03152 0053 +100 +090 174045 046 037 000 05
122300 1728N 06128W 6967 03169 0060 +098 +085 171044 046 /// /// 03
122330 1730N 06128W 6978 03154 0057 +097 +088 168045 046 039 001 00
122400 1733N 06128W 6978 03152 //// +097 //// 169047 047 040 001 01

[dukeblue219]

It's amazing to me how much has changed with communication during hurricanes in 15 years. As recently as the early 2000s you couldn't get reliable updates from Jim Cantore-types affiliated with major networks who were reporting live from cities like Miami or Charleston. The satellite signal would come and go and it was all a mess. Now we get live web cams throughout a Cat5 storm from tiny Caribbean islands and storm chasers reporting over LTE from car washes in Rockport, TX. Getting immediate pictures of damage from those islands is also somewhat reassuring and stops any rumors over whether the island still exists.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Raw ADT still supporting a 7.0... This storm just keeps going. Recon just measured 152 kt SFMR.

Still ultra strong with 152 kt, bit surprised its still that high think the image suggests maybe
some dry-air affecting the western side.

Just imagine if this was in the WPAC. Maybe only a 130 knots STY or 135 knots. Dvorak only at 6.5.

Yeah makes me wonder what Haiyan's wind speed may have been with recon. Upper winds
filtering down can't be sampled by Dvorak.

[Patrick99]

I am trying to do my best to attempt to will this to stay offshore as much as possible. Seriously, though, take a look at this WV loop of the Central US. Does this not look like a pretty significant trough setting up? Also, is the shortwave we need to be rooting for over Montana right now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/h5-loop-wv.html

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061233
AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 31 20170906
122430 1735N 06129W 6978 03149 //// +095 //// 167047 047 042 000 01
122500 1737N 06130W 6971 03157 //// +094 //// 169045 047 040 001 05
122530 1739N 06130W 6971 03155 0052 +099 +097 165044 045 037 001 05
122600 1741N 06131W 6975 03152 0051 +098 +093 169047 047 042 003 05
122630 1743N 06133W 6974 03151 0046 +097 +088 166045 047 041 000 01
122700 1744N 06134W 6974 03149 0045 +102 +083 163046 047 041 003 03
122730 1746N 06135W 6974 03149 0046 +099 +092 168050 051 041 002 03
122800 1749N 06135W 6973 03152 //// +095 //// 169052 053 041 002 01
122830 1751N 06135W 6975 03150 0048 +098 +097 168050 053 040 000 01
122900 1753N 06135W 6963 03162 0061 +103 //// 164053 055 038 000 01
122930 1755N 06135W 6982 03141 0057 +104 //// 162056 058 038 004 01
123000 1758N 06136W 6977 03148 //// +088 //// 160054 060 042 001 01
123030 1800N 06136W 6974 03150 //// +099 //// 165051 052 042 001 05
123100 1802N 06136W 6973 03153 0038 +106 +093 167054 056 042 000 00
123130 1804N 06136W 6974 03155 0044 +104 +090 163057 058 044 000 00
123200 1806N 06137W 6973 03152 0046 +100 +091 157054 056 043 000 03
123230 1809N 06137W 6975 03150 0049 +099 +089 157056 056 043 000 05
123300 1811N 06137W 6974 03154 0052 +097 +084 156056 057 045 000 01
123330 1813N 06138W 6974 03155 0052 +097 +081 153056 056 045 000 00
123400 1815N 06138W 6974 03151 //// +095 //// 150057 057 044 000 01

[KBBOCA]

Radar loop of Barbuda, St. Barth, St. Maarten, Anguilla all taking direct hits from Irma.

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/905409191396945920

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Some shear @500mb and dryer air in this region may keep a lid on it.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

I hope everyone found a way to survive the night.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=634.5&y=996.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

12:37Z

[Extratropical94]

AF305 is getting ready to fly out of Curaçao.

[smithtim]

Spoke with my Dad who is in Orlando. I forgot until this morning that he lives there now. Him and my half-sister have a plan to get to higher ground if they need to evacuate. So I guess I feel a little better, but hearing that Irma was a Cat 5 this morning and with Florida as a potential place of impact, it made me sick to my stomach - that has NEVER happened in the 14 years of my weather nerding ways.

I'm gonna stay in touch with him. What impacts would Orlando tend to have if Irma made landfall in Florida, depending on the angle?

What "higher ground" in Florida are you referring to? I lived there for 4 years and aside from the overpasses, there's no "high ground" in Florida. Also, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hit Florida in 2004, which was only 13 years ago (or are you saying that a Cat 5 hasn't hit in the past 14 years, in which case, please forgive my misunderstanding).

Charley was only a cat 4 for a very small land area in Punta Gorda and both decayed very quickly while moved very quickly... the others were more like 2... trust me I know this as wife's family stayed in Punta Gorda and at the time I was working Indian river CC!

My point is the last real storm we had in FLa was Andrew in 92 and I'm a little concerned that people are not understanding the reality & seriousness of this situation! To put in perspective Google some pics "homestead after hurricane Andrew" then think most of that was done by winds 120-140 and at present time we are looking at real reports of 190 in Irma. I'm not trying to downplay the other storms - I know personally how much they hurt & feel for all effected- but rather im trying to deal with the reality of this present storm ( which looks very similar to 35 labor day so isn't unheard of not possible ) and that if it sends its dirty side through Miami is gonna be a real bad situation!!!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Some shear @500mb and dryer air in this region may keep a lid on it.

CIMSS shows next to zero shear for this thing up until landfall. Where is that sounding from?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061243
AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 32 20170906
123430 1818N 06139W 6974 03153 //// +094 //// 151058 059 045 000 05
123500 1820N 06139W 6973 03153 0056 +094 +092 150059 059 046 000 01
123530 1822N 06140W 6973 03152 //// +095 //// 145060 060 048 000 05
123600 1824N 06141W 6974 03152 0050 +097 +091 145060 061 049 002 00
123630 1826N 06143W 6970 03154 0049 +095 +093 145060 062 049 000 00
123700 1828N 06144W 6974 03149 0046 +098 +095 145058 059 049 001 05
123730 1829N 06145W 6971 03152 //// +096 //// 143058 059 049 002 01
123800 1831N 06147W 6975 03148 //// +095 //// 142059 059 048 000 05
123830 1833N 06149W 6973 03149 //// +095 //// 142058 059 049 001 01
123900 1834N 06150W 6974 03148 //// +095 //// 142058 058 049 000 01
123930 1836N 06152W 6974 03149 //// +091 //// 140055 058 049 002 01
124000 1837N 06154W 6969 03151 //// +095 //// 140057 058 047 003 01
124030 1837N 06157W 6974 03148 //// +094 //// 140058 059 048 002 01
124100 1838N 06159W 6972 03149 //// +094 //// 140059 060 048 002 05
124130 1839N 06201W 6978 03136 //// +093 //// 140062 062 049 002 05
124200 1839N 06203W 6971 03142 //// +092 //// 140060 062 047 001 05
124230 1839N 06205W 6974 03140 //// +095 //// 139055 057 048 002 01
124300 1838N 06207W 6973 03135 0057 +104 //// 137061 065 047 004 01
124330 1838N 06210W 6971 03138 0050 +113 +113 137058 062 047 007 03
124400 1838N 06212W 6979 03126 //// +097 //// 134059 060 049 005 01

[otowntiger]

If the current 5 day track holds true, it will either go into the Gulf or rake back across FL, neither of which is a good option.

The sharp northerly turn is predicted to occur just after or very near that 120-hr point. Not looking good for the FL Peninsula at all.

wxman57: What are your thoughts today? It seems to me that the models are persistently shifting that northerly turn sooner, eastward enough to clear the FL peninsula as I see it. Do you believe the chances of that happening are increasing? If so it would signal new hope for at least Florida, although this puts the Carolinas in the bullseye, which is bad. Hopefully the intensity will drop off sharply before then, we can hope anyway.

[tolakram]

Wider view.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This thing is a monster, and my non-professional eyes see no reason why it wouldn't reintensify into a Cat 5 over the western Bahamas / FL straights area. Promets, what do you think?

[Extratropical94]

AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 33 20170906
124430 1838N 06214W 6973 03135 0040 +100 //// 131054 059 053 004 01
124500 1838N 06216W 6969 03140 0041 +099 //// 140052 055 053 005 01
124530 1839N 06218W 6980 03124 0033 +100 //// 144055 056 052 002 01
124600 1839N 06221W 6976 03124 //// +100 //// 140059 060 051 001 01
124630 1840N 06223W 6972 03129 //// +097 //// 140061 062 046 001 01
124700 1841N 06225W 6973 03129 //// +099 //// 137062 063 045 002 01
124730 1841N 06227W 6973 03122 0010 +105 +094 135065 066 050 000 03
124800 1842N 06229W 6974 03124 0011 +105 +093 135067 067 051 000 03
124830 1844N 06232W 6974 03122 0008 +104 +093 134068 069 052 000 00
124900 1845N 06234W 6974 03125 0005 +105 +090 132069 070 053 000 03
124930 1846N 06236W 6976 03116 0005 +105 +099 130071 072 053 000 03
125000 1847N 06238W 6974 03117 0004 +104 +096 128073 073 058 000 03
125030 1848N 06240W 6974 03120 0004 +101 +098 128074 074 061 000 03
125100 1849N 06243W 6973 03120 0001 +104 +092 128072 074 059 000 00
125130 1850N 06245W 6978 03109 9996 +108 +081 127072 073 060 000 03
125200 1851N 06247W 6973 03114 //// +106 //// 126072 073 060 000 01
125230 1851N 06250W 6971 03114 9990 +108 +086 124075 076 060 002 00
125300 1852N 06252W 6969 03113 0004 +104 //// 120078 079 060 001 05
125330 1853N 06254W 6982 03096 //// +095 //// 121079 081 060 001 05
125400 1854N 06257W 6970 03109 9990 +104 +098 121079 080 059 000 00

[Patrick99]

Maybe Andros and the Bahama Bank knocks it down a bit? It did with Andrew.

[Hurricane Andrew]

AF305 is enroute to join AF307 inside the storm.