ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

Hey all, been busy getting ready down here so I haven't had the time to review every model like I usually do.. what's the summary this morning on the models?

General east trend now ticking back west a little with some. Models seem to be honing in on a track but I've said that before...

[NDG]

06z HWRF has to be dismissed, is right biased even this morning, it shows missing the Virgin Island completely.

I am not seeing what you are seeing. It inits in the correct location as far as I can tell.

https://i.imgur.com/DRCq9uY.png

I was not talking about the initiating position, I was about about its short term forecast track of almost a due NW track for today.

[xironman]

Any chance this goes OTS? Seems models are trending east in the ensemble members. What did the ECMWF ensembles look like?

I think a true OTS is a low probability event, look at that surface high over NY ridging out over the Atlantic trapped by the semi-stationary low off Nova Scotia. That's a classic east coast block that keeps storms from going OTS

[tarheelprogrammer]

Any chance this goes OTS? Seems models are trending east in the ensemble members. What did the ECMWF ensembles look like?

I think a true OTS is a low probability event, look at that surface high over NY ridging out over the Atlantic trapped by the semi-stationary low off Nova Scotia. That's a classic east coast block that keeps storms from going OTS

What are the ensemble members going OTS seeing?

[CourierPR]

Hey all, been busy getting ready down here so I haven't had the time to review every model like I usually do.. what's the summary this morning on the models?

General east trend now ticking back west a little with some. Models seem to be honing in on a track but I've said that before...

It is plain to see why the NHC is very cautious with regard to track adjustment.

[FireRat]

Well guys this is the key day for models concerning the FL threat. Will the trend continue through tonight? or will South FL remain in the center of the cone. I figured today would be the day when we would know much more for sure how FL and the east US coast would fare with Irma. So far the early trend is better at least for the west coast pf FL.

Also important to note is that we'll see later tonight for sure whether Hispaniola will be an issue for Irma. She's still heading west straight into the Virgin islands, and will need to turn WNW to avoid Hispaniola once passing near PR.

[CourierPR]

Well guys this is the key day for models concerning the FL threat. Will the trend continue through tonight? or will South FL remain in the center of the cone. I figured today would be the day when we would know much more for sure how FL and the east US coast would fare with Irma. So far the early trend is better at least for the west coast pf FL.

Also important to note is that we'll see later tonight for sure whether Hispaniola will be an issue for Irma. She's still heading west straight into the Virgin islands, and will need to turn WNW to avoid Hispaniola once passing near PR.

According to NHC, she is headed WNW.

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance. Note does not include ECMWF and its ensembles nor the GFS ensembles:

[Weatherboy1]

Here's the Matthew plots from last year, about the same number of days out. This might be instructive as for the amount of error to be expected. Check out the UKM track. Nailed it.

I really appreciate you showing this, as it illustrates just how far these models can be off-target (still) at 4-5 days out. The distance off the FL coast for models like the GFS, HWRF, etc. right now is much smaller than with Matthew. Plus, Irma is a much larger storm with a larger wind footprint. So this is still WAY too close for comfort and everyone needs to be on their toes (not to mention alert for potential shifts back west in the next cycle or two).

[Vdogg]

Well guys this is the key day for models concerning the FL threat. Will the trend continue through tonight? or will South FL remain in the center of the cone. I figured today would be the day when we would know much more for sure how FL and the east US coast would fare with Irma. So far the early trend is better at least for the west coast pf FL.

Also important to note is that we'll see later tonight for sure whether Hispaniola will be an issue for Irma. She's still heading west straight into the Virgin islands, and will need to turn WNW to avoid Hispaniola once passing near PR.

It's heading WNW, has been for the last 24 hrs.

[gatorcane]

[Hurricane Andrew]

What do you guys think about the tracks that actually push this all the way OTS?

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA model is MUCH further east on the recurve:

[Vdogg]

Tight agreement early on. Models can't decide whether to curve east or west after day 5.

[TheStormExpert]

Well guys this is the key day for models concerning the FL threat. Will the trend continue through tonight? or will South FL remain in the center of the cone. I figured today would be the day when we would know much more for sure how FL and the east US coast would fare with Irma. So far the early trend is better at least for the west coast pf FL.

Also important to note is that we'll see later tonight for sure whether Hispaniola will be an issue for Irma. She's still heading west straight into the Virgin islands, and will need to turn WNW to avoid Hispaniola once passing near PR.

I thought today to would be the day we got a much better idea as to where it makes that turn and goes. Unfortunately we will likely have to wait another day to find out. Hopefully these East trends continue!

[Steve H.]

00Z NASA model is MUCH further east on the recurve:

What is the track record for the NASA model?

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z NASA model is MUCH further east on the recurve:

What is the track record for the NASA model?

Bout as good as the NAM

[BUD]

What time does the models come out during the day?? I forgot

[FireRat]

True, Irma is moving wnw, but barely. TWC showed it more westerly in the last 6 hrs, likely a wobble west.

I don't think Irma will hit the DR, but we gotta watch out for curveballs. By later today, the land - interaction curveball scenario will be discarded.

If FL is still being shown by the models to be hit directly and the east trend quits by doing so...then it really becomes a safe bet that FL will be hit badly with hurricane conditions. If you live in an evacuation zone, you may want to leave no later than tomorrow night. Friday could bring bad traffic IMO. NHC track from tonight onwards should be fairly accurate.

[Powellrm]

Can someone give me an understanding about why there seems to be a discrepancy between the West/East tracks? My feeling all along is that it would glide up the coast, but I abandoned that idea for FL/FL gulf side idea.