ATL: IRMA - Models

[Powellrm]

Can someone give me an understanding about why there seems to be a discrepancy between the West/East tracks? My feeling all along is that it would glide up the coast, but I abandoned that idea for FL/FL gulf side idea.

[gatorcane]

I agree today's 12Z model runs are going to be important to see if the east shift continues or they shift back west some.

[Blown Away]

NHC very lonely with the 12z guidance...

[DESTRUCTION5]

The proximity to PR will be very interesting with a majority of the models seemingly to far north as it passes. NHC and UKMet look much more realistic based on satellite trends.

[weathaguyry]

So if this parallels the East coast of Florida, will it either recurve or hook into NC? Or could it hook father North or just keep heading north?

[caneseddy]

Just a tidbit for everyone from the NHC

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905419539109826560

[OuterBanker]

Looking better for Florida. Unfortunately, with that comes an increase in danger for the Carolina's. Yesterday although Florida was going to get nailed it was better for us because it would have taken most of the energy out of Irma. In fact in yesterday’s run the Outer Banks would have been one of the least affected because it is so far east. I guess we're not out of it yet. Best hope is still out to sea.

[caneseddy]

Nice shift coming from NHC later today to say the least...Still 2-3 days from any impacts in Florida. Would essentially keep the worst of Irma over the Bahamas.

Not very likely they will shift much...the GFS trended a bit west in this morning's run as did the HWRF, UKMET, NAVGEM...also the Euro ensembles from overnight still have the majority over Florida with mean up the spine so
stay tuned

[AutoPenalti]

Looking better for Florida. Yesterday although Florida was going to get nailed it was better for us because it would have taken most of the energy out of Irma.

Nice shift coming from NHC later today to say the least...Still 2-3 days from any impacts in Florida. Would essentially keep the worst of Irma over the Bahamas.

Nope and nope, GFS has brought it back west again this morning, we are NOT out of the woods yet.

[SFLcane]

And then Ryan Maue tweets this... :

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905419696740151296

[CrazyC83]

I wrote this cautionary note on my Facebook page:

1) Even if Irma passes just east of Florida (what they are saying now), significant conditions will likely be experienced along much of the peninsula, even if the worst does not occur.

2) There is no reason to believe the models can't trend back west, which would result in catastrophic impacts for the peninsula. The situation remains very fluid and 4 days is a long time for things to change. Better to be prepared than have it come unexpected.

3) If the trend continues, and if Florida is largely spared, large parts of the Bahamas get annihilated by a direct hit by what could still be a category 5 hurricane. Unlike in Florida, they do not have the option of evacuating since they are a chain of islands.

4) That same track would send Irma into the Georgia or Carolina coasts. There are very vulnerable cities along those coasts, and even if Irma weakens to, say, a category 3 before that landfall (wind shear increases a bit after the turn), the storm surge would be catastrophic due to the water buildup.
Simply put, now is not the time to stop preparing and certainly not the time to drop the guard.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

12Z Guidance. Note does not include ECMWF and its ensembles nor the GFS ensembles:

06 ens GEFS ens are here, typically they will usually move too the GFS.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[AutoPenalti]

So Local 10 showed fellow viewers this spaghetto plot.


upload an image

Not sure why but they really hammered it hard.

[caneseddy]

So Local 10 showed fellow viewers this spaghetto plot.


upload an image

Not sure why but they really hammered it hard.

That's very irresponsible of them IMO...I can't believe they are showing that on TV

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC will probably put the 5 day point just off the Palm Beach County coast. Models can still shift back West, but it's looking slightly better for South Florida this morning.

[NJWxHurricane]

So Local 10 showed fellow viewers this spaghetto plot.


upload an image

Not sure why but they really hammered it hard.

That's very irresponsible of them IMO...I can't believe they are showing that on TV

it's models how is that irresponsible..

[NJWxHurricane]

So Local 10 showed fellow viewers this spaghetto plot.


upload an image

Not sure why but they really hammered it hard.

That's very irresponsible of them IMO...I can't believe they are showing that on TV

it's models how is that irresponsible..

if they don't want them to be shown maybe they should get rid of spaghetti plots

[tarheelprogrammer]

So Local 10 showed fellow viewers this spaghetto plot.


upload an image

Not sure why but they really hammered it hard.

That's very irresponsible of them IMO...I can't believe they are showing that on TV

it's models how is that irresponsible..

Well, because people will feel like they are in the clear, and they are not. It is very irresponsible. It could be a short term trend, and the models could go back west, or further east. However, showing people models like this with no impact is misleading.

[FireRat]

Jesus that model spread shown on channel 10 didn't have a single line over South FL, imagine how the viewers felt now. Complacency could arise, and if the real track moves back to South FL in a few days, many will be in big trouble. The NHC is the main one to follow, as long as FL is in the cone, it's likely that hurricane conditions will be experienced. So far the trend looks better, but this can also be a double-edged sword. Let's hope the trend becomes well established by tonight and tomorrow.

meanwhile, here's the latest spaghetti models from spaghettimodels.com



The ECMWF spaghetti models aren't as gung-ho when it comes to missing South FL to the east.

[gatorcane]

Why are folks saying that South Florida is looking better? Actually it looked better yesterday with the core passing around Key West. Now the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF has the core just offshore the SE Coast of Florida coming in from the SOUTH raking the entire SE Florida coastline. If that track holds, Matthew's impacts on SE Florida will pale in comparison! Matthew came in from the SE and was far enough away SE Florida to not cause a big issue.

Here is what the best performing model is doing. Things are looking better? I don't think so: